Severe Thunderstorm Warning 393, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
446 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VERY STRONG SHORT WAVE FOR THE END OF
JULY...DEEPENING THE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND PUSHING A SFC COLD
FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WV...EXTREME EASTERN KY AND
EASTERN TN. THERE IS A LINE OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MOVG INTO THE WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. THE AIRMASS IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH CAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. SHEAR IS
INCREASING AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. WEST WIND SHAVE BECOME
LIGHT AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND HAVE BACKED TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70. I SEE NO REASON WHY THE THE LINE WILL NOT CONTINUE
MOVING EAST...AND AS THE SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
THIS EVENING IT THE FRONT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW
AND SHOULD SLOW. THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE NC/VA PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO
THE EASTERN CWA. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WORDING THROUGH THE EVENING OUT THAT WAY.
FFG IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE DO NOT THINK A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NEEDED. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THOUGH. SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
DECREASING WEST TO EAST...AS WELL. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE
LOWS- JUST A LITTLE WARMER IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL SLOW
AND CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
INDIANA AND COLD FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR WILL BE COMING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPS SLIGHTLY IN THE MORNING BUT THEN START
RECOVERING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
MAV/MET GUIDANCE...WITH TYPICAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR MODEL BIAS AT LWB.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE COME BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
REMNANTS OF AN MCS THAT WILL BE CROSSING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO ILLINOIS/INDIANA/KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE OUTFLOW OR ANY CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED VORTICITY FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TO KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST.

NO REAL ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...JUST
TYPICAL SCATTERED AIRMASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE PATTERN STILL SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES WITH A TROF IN THE EAST. HPC IS FAVORING A SLOWER
FRONTAL PASSAGE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WHICH HAS THE FRONT COMING
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO THE WARMER
GUIDANCE NUMBERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE ALSO GRADUALLY BROUGHT
IN DRY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVG
INTO THE MTNS OF SRN WV AND FAR SW VA AT THIS TIME. THIS LINE
SHOULD CONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND LIKELY BECOMING STRONGER. I
HAVE TIMED THE LINE OF TSTMS/GREATEST THREAT AT EACH OF THE TAF
SITES. FOR BLF AND LWB...WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO HAVE A PREVAILING
GROUP AND TEMPO OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. FURTHER EAST...I HANDLED IT
WITH A TEMP GROUP OF 3 HOURS. TSTMS WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE
DANVILLE AREA...TILL 01 TO 02Z. COULD HAVE SOME MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
ONCE THE RAIN MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THERE IS SOME CLEARING. I
PUT SOME IFR FOG IN DANVILLE...AND LIFR AT LWB TOWARD MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE ALL FOG IN THE AREA WILL LIFT QUICKLY WITH A
STRENGTHENING NW FLOW...AROUND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH NW TO NORTH WINDS POSSIBLY AS HIGH
AS 10 KNOTS.

SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PASS EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...EACH OF
WHICH WILL REINTRODUCE THE THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY AND/OR CEILING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST
OF THE TIME AT ALL TERMINAL FORECAST SITES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...JJ
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JJ/WERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
348 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009-012>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
242000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-SMYTH-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
348 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 739 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS
TONIGHT...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ007-010-011-WVZ042>045-242000-
TAZEWELL-BLAND-GILES-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
348 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...
PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE AREA BY MID EVENING AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
403 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             FAIRLAWN                37.15N 80.56W
07/23/2008  M1.25 INCH       PULASKI            VA   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND. HAIL LASTED 10 MINUTES

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHRISTIANSBURG          37.14N 80.40W
07/23/2008                   MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN

0355 PM     HAIL             CHRISTIANSBURG          37.14N 80.40W
07/23/2008  M1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

            AT PLUM CREEK AND BLAIR STREET

&&

CACCIAPAGLIA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
448 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RADFORD                 37.13N 80.57W
07/23/2008                   CITY OF RADFORD    VA   PUBLIC

            8 INCH LARGE LIMB BLOWN OFF TREE

&&

CACCIAPAGLIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
455 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE ROANOKE            37.24N 79.91W
07/23/2008                   ROANOKE            VA   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN AT WINDY GAP

&&

CACCIAPAGLIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
459 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE ROANOKE            37.25N 79.92W
07/23/2008                   CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN

&&

CACCIAPAGLIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
508 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

NCZ002-003-019-020-232215-
YADKIN NC-WILKES NC-SURRY NC-ALLEGHANY NC-
508 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 506 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRAPHILL...MOVING EAST AT 31
MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...BENHAM AT 515 PM EDT...
STATE RD...PLEASANT HILL AT 520 PM EDT...ELKIN...JONESVILLE AT 525 PM
EDT...BURCH...DOBSON AT 530 PM EDT...CRUTCHFIELD...FAIRVIEW AT 535 PM
EDT...BOONVILLE AT 540 PM EDT.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH DURING THE NEXT HOUR ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES OR WARNINGS.