Severe Thunderstorm Warning 376, NWS Blacksburg, VA

000 
WWUS51 KRNK 230211
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1011 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

VAC045-230221-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0376.000000T0000Z-080723T0315Z/
CRAIG VA-
1011 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CRAIG COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3783 7967 3761 7998 3764 8003 3765 8003
      3766 8005 3777 8023 3795 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 231DEG 35KT 3776 8004

$$

VAC005-023-580-230315-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0376.000000T0000Z-080723T0315Z/
BOTETOURT VA-CITY OF COVINGTON VA-ALLEGHANY VA-
1011 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM EDT
FOR THE CITY OF COVINGTON... ALLEGHANY AND NORTHWESTERN BOTETOURT
COUNTIES...

AT 1009 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CALLAGHAN...OR NEAR COVINGTON CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
41 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3783 7967 3761 7998 3764 8003 3765 8003
      3766 8005 3777 8023 3795 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 231DEG 35KT 3776 8004

$$

RCS

000 
WWUS51 KRNK 230242
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1042 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

VAC005-023-580-230252-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0376.000000T0000Z-080723T0315Z/
BOTETOURT VA-CITY OF COVINGTON VA-ALLEGHANY VA-
1042 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE CITY OF COVINGTON...
ALLEGHANY AND NORTHWESTERN BOTETOURT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND
EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1 8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

LAT...LON 3783 7967 3761 7998 3764 8003 3765 8003
      3766 8005 3777 8023 3795 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 0242Z 231DEG 35KT 3795 7974

$$

RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
739 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A DECENT COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLOW DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA AND THE EAST COAST. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ARRIVES INTO NEXT WEEK...BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA REMAINS CONVECTION FREE ATTM IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER
OUTFLOW/PASSING MCS AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY GIVEN DELAY IN
INSOLATION. WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL IN THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER IMPULSE TO RIDE UNDER THE UPPER TROF
THIS EVENING AND INTO WV BY MIDNIGHT. MODELS JUMP ON THIS FEATURE
AS WELL AS THE LEAD OUTFLOW AND IGNITE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NW THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. STILL IFFY AS TO COVERAGE
WITH THIS S/W AND HOW FAR EAST ANY SHRA MIGHT MAKE IT. THUS ONLY
BOOSTING POPS SLIGHTLY TO LOW LIKELYS NW AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS
ELSW THIS EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF SHRA LOOKS TO BE MORE ALIGNED
WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TO THE NW LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW A DECREASE IN POPS OVERNIGHT. AGAIN WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE
LOW TEMP FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE WARMER MET MOS.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY START TO PIVOT SE WED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SLIDING EAST POSSIBLY REACHING THE PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER MODEL TIMING WITH THE FRONT AND BAND OF PREFRONTAL DEEP RH
IN QUESTION BUT CRITICAL TO THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE. FOR
NOW WILL LEAN IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SLOWER MORE UNSTABLE GFS/CANADIAN
SOLNS BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CONVECTION. GIVEN MORE
HEATING...FORECAST ROABS SHOW INVERTED V TYPE PROFILE ESPCLY EAST
WHERE EXPECT MORE HEATING. OTRW WILL KEEP GOING LIKELY/CAT POPS
OVER THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN EDGE HIGHER POPS EAST
TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT BY EVENING. SLOW MOVEMENT PER
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALSO SUPPORTS SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IF MULTICELL
TSRA CLUSTERS DEVELOP. HIGH TEMPS TRICKY PENDING TIMING OF
CLOUDS/SHRA SO PLAYED CLOSER TO THE COOLER MOS WITH 70S/LOW 80S
FAR WEST...AND 85-90 EAST FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY COULD FEATURE STRNG TO SVR STORMS WITH ANOMALOUS UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE RESEMBLES
MORE OF A SPRING/FALL EVENT AS OPPOSED TO A SUMMERTIME EVENT.
SHWS/TSTMS SHOULD END QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT WITH
SKIES CLEARING QUICKLY. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE SHOWING ITS BIAS BEING
TOO DEEP AND STRONG WITH VORT MAXES...PLUNGING THE MAIN WAVE MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT ADDITIONAL
SHWS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND FRONT...BUT AIR IS LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
TO OCCUR. WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT THURS AFTERNOON...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURS NIGHT...MIN T COULD FALL TO OR BELOW
GUIDANCE MOST SPOTS. ALTHOUGH FRONT IS STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IT MAY STALL OUT JUST CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A SHWS OR STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE EXTREME SE CWA THURS...BUT A BETTER CHC ON FRIDAY
WITH INSTABILITY AND H7 MOISTURE BUILDING BACK NORTH FOR THE SAME
AREA...ALTHOUGH THE OP GFS LIKELY IS OVERDONE WITH COVERAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EVENTUALLY DISPLACING THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AT LEAST FROM THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THIS OCCURS...SHWS/TSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT THIS
WEEKEND. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY
FIRST...WITH POSSIBLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY
WHEN THE COLD FRONT CROSSES. ALTHOUGH MANY COLD FRONTS HAVE
PERISHED BEFORE CLEARING THE NC/VA BORDER...IF SOME OF THE LR
MODELS VERIFY IN REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...THIS FRONT MAY ACTUALLY PASS FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING A NICE STRING OF NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS...AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
IN CLOUDS AND RAIN. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ESPCLY
VALLEYS WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. OTRW MAINLY VFR INTO
TONIGHT OUTSIDE CONVECTION. COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY
WITH ONGOING SHRA/TSRA BAND OR QUICK REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
LIKELY TAKING PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST. MAY INCLUDE SOME PREVAILING
VSBY REDUCTION IN SE WVA IN THE MORNING OTRW RUNNING WITH CB
MENTION BY MIDDAY FAR WEST. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z FOR MOST
TAF LOCATIONS.

CONVECTION LIKELY TO LINGER INTO WED EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH DRYING CONDITIONS ON THU UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING INTO LATE WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SAT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/RCS
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...JH/KK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
430 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009>017-WVZ042>045-232030-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-
GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-GREENBRIER-
430 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 727 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 1100 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE IS DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.

NCZ004>006-VAZ018>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-232030-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-
ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
430 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE IS DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT BECOME
SEVERE IS DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
910 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S SPENCER             36.56N 80.02W
07/22/2008                   HENRY              VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BARN ROOF BLOWN ONTO 3561 VA/NC ROAD BLOCKING THE ROAD.

&&

CACCIAPAGLIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
918 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDEN                    36.51N 79.74W
07/22/2008                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS CITY 715 TO 730 PM.

&&

CACCIAPAGLIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
923 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KEELING                 36.72N 79.30W
07/22/2008                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   PUBLIC

            ROOF BLOWN OFF GARAGE. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON LOOP ROAD.
            DAMAGING WINDS FROM 755 PM THROUGH 810 PM.

&&

CACCIAPAGLIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
943 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

WVZ044-045-230245-
MONROE WV-GREENBRIER WV-
943 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

AT 940 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF SALTVILLE...OR ABOUT 76
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

STONEFIELD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
945 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

VAZ007-009-WVZ042-230245-
SMYTH VA-TAZEWELL VA-MERCER WV-
945 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

AT 940 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF SALTVILLE...OR ABOUT 4 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BROADFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 29 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...ASBERRYS AT 950 PM EDT...CLIFFIELD AT 955
PM EDT...TAZEWELL AT 1005 PM EDT...GRATTON AT 1015 PM EDT...TIPTOP AT
1020 PM EDT...BOISSEVAIN...BLUEFIELD AT 1035 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

STONEFIELD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
947 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

VAZ019-020-WVZ044-045-230245-
BATH VA-MONROE WV-GREENBRIER WV-ALLEGHANY VA-
947 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

AT 944 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF
MARLINTON TO 7 MILES NORTH OF PAINT BANK...MOVING EAST AT 33 MPH. THE
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...NEOLA AT 955 PM EDT...
JORDAN MINES...CALLAGHAN AT 1000 PM EDT...COVINGTON CITY AT 1010 PM
EDT...NATURAL WELL AT 1015 PM EDT...LAKE MOOMAW...MOUNTAIN GROVE AT
1020 PM EDT...HOT SPRINGS...BACOVA JUNCTION AT 1025 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

STONEFIELD