Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Charleston, WV

000 
WWUS51 KRLX 060829
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
327 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

OHC009-053-079-105-115-127-163-167-060837-
/O.EXP.KRLX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-080206T0830Z/
VINTON OH-PERRY OH-ATHENS OH-WASHINGTON OH-MORGAN OH-MEIGS OH-
GALLIA OH-JACKSON OH-
327 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JACKSON...GALLIA...MEIGS...
MORGAN...WASHINGTON...ATHENS...PERRY AND VINTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
OHIO EXPIRES AT 330 AM EST...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORMS 
WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WARNED AREA BY 330 
AM. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3991 8216 3978 8206 3976 8165 3959 8158
      3964 8145 3958 8121 3926 8169 3901 8188
      3896 8215 3858 8230 3884 8257 3894 8282
      3934 8276 3939 8230 3947 8228 3948 8217
      3955 8217 3960 8238 3984 8248 3993 8241
TIME...MOT...LOC 0827Z 267DEG 61KT 3946 8190

$$

08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 AM EST WED FEB 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS OHIO WILL MOVE NORTH AS LOW
PRESSURE RIDES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  IN ITS
WAKE...A STRONG UPPER AIR SYSTEM CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.  WINTER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA AS THE
ARKANSAS LOW STRENGTHENS AND DYNAMICS ALOFT GET MORE ORGANIZED WITH
THIS LOW.  THIS WILL KEEP US IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT WITH NO REAL
UPPER SUPPORT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER IN THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...SO THAT THE
SLOWER NAM IS PREFERRED OVER THE FASTER GFS. EVEN WITH THE SLOWER
TIMING...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MAIN
ENERGY AND GREATEST QPF IS THEREFORE CONCENTRATED WITH THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO. SO THE HEAVIEST
RAINS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND FRONT ON WEDNESDAY FOR OUR AREA WILL
LIKELY BE CLOSEST TO THE LOW...ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA. THIS AREA RECEIVED A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN THIS
MORNING...AND IS INCORPORATED INTO THE FLOOD WATCH WHICH CONTINUES
THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE FRONT WOULD HAVE IT ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECENT BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH SO THAT THE FLOOD
WATCH IS LIMITED TO MOSTLY THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND CERTAINLY ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER...MAINLY IN THE MAIN CONVECTION BAND CLOSE TO THE FRONT.
VERY GOOD SHEAR INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL INCLUDE IN HWO FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED IN THE RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST
ATMOSPHERE TO AID SEVERE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD
HIGHS ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT PASS TIL LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE A FEW
DEGREES. FINALLY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT NO
WIND ADVISORY SEEN AT THIS TIME. LOTS OF MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE
FRONT UNDER DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW...BUT HAVE
DOWNPLAYED POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS WINDS
STAY MORE WESTERLY RATHER THAN NORTHWESTERLY. PREFER THE SLOWER NAM
IN BRINGING THE COLDER AIR IN...AND A SLOWER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS IN THE LOWLANDS ARE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SNOW. ANY LEFT
OVER SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY WIND DOWN THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT STILL LOTS OF CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGS AROUND. SEASONABLE TEMPS THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A POLAR VORTEX DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THIS
WEEKEND.

BEFORE THAT...WEAK WAA YIELDS CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.  A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE.
RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.  AN SNOW
ACCUM WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS OUTSIDE THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH RESOLVE AN ARCTIC FRONT WHICH RETURNS WINTER TO
THE AREA SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT.  H8 TEMPS PLUMMET TO -20C RANGE SUN
AND SUN NGT.  THIS MEANS WE WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE DAYTIME HIGHS REACH
THE 30S EVEN IN THE SRN COAL FIELDS.  THE ASSOCIATED UPPER AIR
SYSTEM CROSSES SUNDAY AND COULD YIELD A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE MTNS.  MSTR REMAINS A QUESTION...SO WILL NOT INSERT ANY VERBIAGE
IN THE HWO YET ON POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS.

MID LVL HGTS BUILD DAYS 6 AND 7 ALLOWING A SHORT VISIT BY OLD MAN
WINTER.  TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS TO CLOSE OUT THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SQUALL APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL AFFECT HTS...PKB
AROUND 08Z...WITH SEVERE WEATHER...DAMAGING WINDS BEEN THE MAIN
THREAT. THE LINE WILL REACH CRW AROUND 08-09Z...AND COULD DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN SITES FROM 10-11Z.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. DEADLY
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 00Z THU/...
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY. GRADUALLY IMPROVING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE AMOUNT OF QPF PREDICTED /1 - 3 INCHES / OVER THE NEXT 24 -
36 HRS...THE HOCKING...MUSKINGUM...AND OHIO RIVERS WILL BE RUNNING
NEAR BANKFULL.  THE OHIO RIVER WILL SEE A STRONG RISE LATER THIS
WEEK DUE TO UPSTREAM RAINFALL IN THE ALLEGHANY BASIN.  PLEASE REFER
TO THE AHPS SECTION OF OUR WEBPAGE FOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...29
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...29
AVIATION...ARJ
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
333 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085-WVZ009>011-062045-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-VINTON-MEIGS-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
333 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-086-087-WVZ005>008-062045-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-JACKSON OH-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-
333 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ003-004-WVZ013>020-024>040-046-047-062045-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
333 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.