Tornado Warning 46, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 271826
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
226 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

NCC163-271845-
/O.CON.KRAH.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-080827T1845Z/
SAMPSON NC-
227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
SAMPSON COUNTY...

AT 222 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SAMPSON
COUNTY...OR NEAR CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 9 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3502 7850 3517 7835 3508 7820 3498 7837
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 214DEG 8KT 3503 7838

$$

JFB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1124 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING...BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS STILL
IN PLACE...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM WEDNESDAY...

EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NORTH OF SURFACE
FRONT THAT EXTENDED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. 12Z
RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN 850MB FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER...
WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE AT 250MB. AMPLE MOISTURE NOTED AT 850MB AS
DEW POINTS AT THAT LEVEL WERE IN THE MID TEENS...AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS RANGED FROM NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S. SOME COCORAHS OBSERVERS
IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT HAD RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 4
INCHES. THIS WAS IN BASIC CONCERT WITH WSR-88D RAINFALL ESTIMATES...
AND WITH AT LEAST NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST AIR...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WAS ISSUED FOR AREAS THAT HAD THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS OR SO...THROUGH THIS MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH WAS IN EFFECT
AS WELL...AND WITH VERY LOW LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS AND PLENTY
OF LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AS NOTED BY THE KRAX WSR-88D AND SPC TOOLS...
GIVEN GENEROUS LIFT ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY A QUICK SPINUP
COULD OCCUR. THIS WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTH...WILL CONTINUE HAVING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EARLY
AND TREND CHANCES DOWNWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING NOT FAR FROM THOSE OF THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS TO OUR WEST THURSDAY.
TROPICAL AIR MASS BEGINS TO ABATE... BUT THE AMOUNT OF DRYING IS
STILL IN QUESTION. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FIFTY PERCENT RAIN
CHANCE ALONE...AND TIP VALUES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER AFTER THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST
FRIDAY AND COULD LEAVE AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE DRY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS MID 80S THURSDAY AND UPPER 80S FRIDAY. FRIDAY
MORNING LOWS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR NIGHTS WITH LOWS 67 TO 72.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 455 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: WE SHOULD BE IN THE SUBSIDENT REGION
BEHIND A PRIMARY MID LEVEL WAVE -- COMPRISED OF THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM FAY AND AN ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT UPSTREAM OVER
IOWA AND MISSOURI THIS MORNING -- THAT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUT AN END TO ANY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE/WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND A LEESIDE SURFACE TROUGH... SHOULD PROVIDE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90.

A SURFACE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
RESULTANT POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE FRONT BY PEAK HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP
INVOF THE FRONT... WHICH AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THAT TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS THEN
FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST BENEATH AND AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE TN VALLEY TO SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA... WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS
BENEATH A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION... COURTESY OF MOIST
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC.  -MWS

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1120 AM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... AND RESULT IN
CONTINUED COLD AIR DAMMING AND RESULTANT LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
MOSTLY MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ABOVE
2000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...AND RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF SCATTERING OF SHOWERS
BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
MID LEVEL WAVE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO RETREAT SLOWLY NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NC TODAY. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LIKELY RISE TO MVFR OR
PERHAPS EVEN VFR TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY... WHILE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHERE THE SATURATED COLD AIR
DAMMING AIRMASS IS APT TO PERSIST. THUS...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR OR BETTER CEILINGS AT KFAY THIS
AFTERNOON...FOR EXAMPLE.

LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT
(OR CONTINUE WHERE THEY NEVER IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON)...AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING STRENGTHENS THE SATURATED COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS.

LOOKING BEYOND TONIGHT...THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION
FROM THE VERY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
AIR DAMMING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS... ASIDE FROM BRIEFLY REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE)... ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ021>023-038-039-
073>075-083>085.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/RLH
SHORT TERM...RLH
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF/MWS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-076>078-086-088-089-281200-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1105 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 870 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE A INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN
HOUR. LOW LYING AREAS... URBAN AREAS... AND LOCATIONS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE SUCH AS CONSTRUCTION ZONES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTS WILL BE BENEFICIAL. SPOTTERS SHOULD
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY
TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

NCZ021>023-038-039-073>075-083>085-281200-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
1105 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 870 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE A INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN
HOUR...WHICH COULD RESULT IN RAPID FLOODING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
AN ESTIMATED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING. LOW LYING
AND URBAN AREAS...AND LOCATIONS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...WILL BE
PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTS WILL BE BENEFICIAL. SPOTTERS SHOULD
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY
TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

DJF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 PM     TORNADO          4 E GOLDSTON            35.59N 79.26W
08/27/2008                   CHATHAM            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STATE TROOPER REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND NORTH OF
            GULF.

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TORNADO          6 W WILSON              35.73N 78.03W
08/27/2008                   WILSON             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNANDO TOUCHDOWN NEAR
            HIGHWAY 42 AND LLOYD ROAD.

0125 PM     TORNADO          6 W WILSON              35.73N 78.03W
08/27/2008                   WILSON             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR HIGHWAY
            42 AND LLOYD ROAD.

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
151 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     TORNADO          3 SSW LINWOOD           35.71N 78.33W
08/27/2008                   JOHNSTON           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TORNADO ON THE GROUND AT COVERED
            BRIDGE ROAD AND THANKSGIVING FIRE ROAD. MULTIPLE TREES
            DOWN IN ROAD.

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
152 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N ELON COLLEGE        36.16N 79.53W
08/27/2008                   ALAMANCE           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            911 CENTER REPORTS THAT NUMEROUS ROADS ARE FLOODED IN
            WESTERN ALAMANCE COUNTY...INCLUDING A ROAD CLOSURE ON
            GIBSONVILLE-OSSIPPEE ROAD.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
153 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 WNW WILSON            35.76N 78.01W
08/27/2008                   WILSON             NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR
            HIGHWAY 264 AND I-95.

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
206 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TORNADO          6 NW WILSON             35.79N 78.00W
08/27/2008                   WILSON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTERS REPORT TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR I-95 AND
            BLOOMERY ROAD.

&&

RWH