Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
725 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING...BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS STILL
IN PLACE...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 505 PM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
EARLY THIS EVENING IN UNSTABLE AIR...WITH SURFACE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS FROM JUST SOUTH OF LEXINGTON TO THE FAYETTEVILLE
AREA. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPC MESOSCALE INFORMATION
SHOWING SHEAR AND HELICITY DIMINISHING...AND LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVELS INCREASING...OPTED TO ALLOW TORNADO WATCH TO ESSENTIALLY
EXPIRE. STILL MAY BE A COUPLE OF SEVERE CELLS...BUT INTRAOFFICE
COORDINATION WOULD SUGGEST TORNADO THREAT WAS WANING. ALL OF THIS
WAS ONGOING AHEAD OF A MODERATE SHORTWAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EVENING
UNDER NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THOUGH COVERAGE HAS BEEN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THIS TYPE OF COVERAGE
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AND ANTICIPATING GOOD RAINFALL RATES
TO REMAIN...AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME TAKING ANY MORE.

OVERNIGHT...DRY SLOT STARTS TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND LIFT SLOWLY DIMINISHES. 20KT 850MB WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE WEAKENS SOME AS WELL.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MORE TOWARD
NORTHEAST ZONES IN THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIFTING OVER THE
FRONT...WITH MORE PATCHY SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE
DRYING ALOFT TAKES SHAPE. COULD ACTUALLY BE A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT
WHERE CHARACTER OF PRECIPITATION IS MORE DRIZZLE THAN RAIN
ESPECIALLY WEST. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS TO
RETURN AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUPPORT SURFACE FRONT REMAINING
STATIONARY OR BEING SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH IN WEDGE. GIVEN HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWED THE GFS MORE DUE TO ITS APPARENT BETTER TRACK RECORD OF
LATE WITH THE TRACK OF SURFACE FEATURES VERSUS THE NAM. THE RESULT
FOR THURSDAY IS STILL MODEST LIFT OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST THREAT OF DEEPER
CONVECTION WILL BE IN EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND WHERE THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND NAM PROVIDE FOR THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...UNDER THE STRONGER WEDGE
OF THE GFS...THE TRIAD IS BASICALLY UNDER LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...WHEREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST LIFTED INDICES FALL TO AROUND
-2C WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO 1000J/KG OR SO UNDER A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EASTERN ZONES WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN CLOSER TO 2 INCHES...LESS TOWARD
THE FAR WEST WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES DURING THE DAY DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRYING. AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS GET LIGHTER...0-3KM HELICITY IS MUCH LESS THAN TODAY ON THE
GFS FORECAST. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TOWARD THE
TRIAD...BUT SHOULD EASILY HIT THE MID TO UPPER 80S FAR SOUTH.

MOISTURE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH PRIMARILY A DIURNAL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DECENTLY UNSTABLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...AND GENERALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM A REASONABLE FORECAST WITH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE MOIST
AIR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE LATE SATURDAY. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN MOS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HIGH
DURING THE PERIOD AS THINK...EVEN WITH A LITTLE SUN...THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OF THE FWC AND MET ARE TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...

OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY...WHEN THERE STILL MAY BE LINGERING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET WEATHER. THE
LATEST GFS IS RAIN FREE IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM JUST AFTER
00Z MONDAY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WILL BE AT OR WITHIN A CATEGORY OF THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM WEDNESDAY...

VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS OF 23Z WED...A
WARM FRONT (ASSOC/W FAYS REMNANT LOW OVER EASTERN TN) WAS DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ROUGHLY FROM LEXINGTON (EXX)...TO SANFORD
(TTA)...TO GOLDSBORO (GSB). CEILINGS AND VISBYS SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT (KFAY) ARE VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WHILE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT (KGSO KINT KRWI) MVFR TO LIFR CONDS ARE
PRESENT REGARDLESS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WHERE YOU ARE IN RELATION
TO THIS WARM FRONT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE THE CONDITIONS YOU SEE
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD (UNTIL 00Z FRI). LOCATIONS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR TO LIFR CONDS
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...WHILE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE VFR/MVFR CONDS...WITH WORSE
CONDS IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING THE WARM FRONT MEANDERING
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY...FEEL THAT KGSO/KINT/KRDU/KRWI
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND SEEING
MVFR TO LIFR CONDS...WITH KFAY MORE LIKELY TO SEE VFR/MVFR CONDS
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THEREFORE...THE TAFS WILL FOLLOW ACCORDING
TO THIS LINE OF THINKING. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AT LEAST
IN ISOLATED AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE THREAT SHIFTS MORE TO THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...AND OUTSIDE OF SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. -VINCENT

&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ021>023-
038-039-073>075-083>085.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
549 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-076>078-086-088-089-282200-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
549 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE A INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN
HOUR. LOW LYING AREAS... URBAN AREAS... AND LOCATIONS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE SUCH AS CONSTRUCTION ZONES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

NCZ021>023-038-039-073>075-083>085-282200-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
549 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
451 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE SILER CITY         35.74N 79.45W
08/27/2008                   CHATHAM            NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ABOUT A MILE NORTHEAST OF SILER CITY
            ON JESSE BRIDGES ROAD.

&&

RHENES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
503 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NW BURLINGTON         36.13N 79.50W
08/27/2008                   ALAMANCE           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A PORTION OF PHIBBS ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 87 IS CLOSED WITH
            TWO FEET OF WATER COVERING THE ROAD

0350 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE GRAHAM            36.00N 79.35W
08/27/2008                   ALAMANCE           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A PORTION OF SWEPSONVILLE SAXAPAHAW ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING

&&

JFB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
516 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 PM     TORNADO          1 E RANDLEMAN           35.82N 79.78W
08/27/2008                   RANDOLPH           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED AN OUTBUILDING WAS LEVELED ON
            APPLEWOOD ROAD AND SHINGLES BLOWN OFF A ROOF. IN
            ADDITION... NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES HAVE BEEN
            REPORTED DOWN IN THIS AREA ON... CREEKRIDGE COUNTRY
            ROAD... APPLEWOOD ROAD... AND NAOMI ROAD.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
543 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE BURLINGTON         36.06N 79.42W
08/27/2008                   ALAMANCE           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROAD ON HWY 119 BETWEEN JIM MINOR
            AND TURNER ROAD. OTHER ROADS FLOODED ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
556 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W PITTSBORO           35.72N 79.26W
08/27/2008                   CHATHAM            NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SEVERAL ROADS FLOODED BETWEEN PITTSBORO AND SILER CITY.
            WATER LEVELS RISING AT SOME ROAD CLOUSRES.

&&

BLAES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 NW HILLSBOROUGH       36.14N 79.19W
08/27/2008  M1.00 INCH       ORANGE             NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED 1 INCH OF RAIN IN 15
            MINUTES... BETWEEN 655 PM AND 710 PM. MINOR FLOODING
            OCCURRED.

&&

PWB