Severe Thunderstorm Warning 445, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 271945
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

NCC085-271955-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0445.000000T0000Z-080827T2000Z/
HARNETT NC-
345 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HARNETT COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND THE WARNING IS 
NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

IF YOU EXPERIENCED SEVERE WEATHER SUCH AS LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS PLEASE PASS THE INFORMATION ALONG TO YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3549 7900 3558 7893 3552 7871 3548 7866
      3543 7861 3540 7860 3525 7861 3525 7867
      3526 7870 3526 7883 3522 7891 3519 7910
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 180DEG 0KT 3524 7891

$$

JFB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING...BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS STILL
IN PLACE...THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
EARLY THIS EVENING IN UNSTABLE AIR...WITH SURFACE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS FROM JUST SOUTH OF LEXINGTON TO THE FAYETTEVILLE
AREA. HIGH DEW POINTS...IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WAS HELPING TO
PROVIDE FOR LOW LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVELS...AND THERE CONTINUED
TO BE CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN THE LOWEST 5K FEET ON THE WSR-88D
VWP. ALL OF THIS WAS ONGOING AHEAD OF A MODERATE SHORTWAVE VISIBLE
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TORNADO WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5
PM...AND SOME PORTION OF THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN ZONES GIVEN HEATING DUE TO SCATTERING OF CLOUDS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT HELPING TO ENHANCE INSTABILITY LATE
IN THE DAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EVENING
UNDER NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THOUGH COVERAGE HAS BEEN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THIS TYPE OF COVERAGE
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AND ANTICIPATING GOOD RAINFALL RATES
TO REMAIN...AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAIN
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME TAKING ANY MORE.

OVERNIGHT...DRY SLOT STARTS TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND LIFT SLOWLY DIMINISHES. 20KT 850MB WINDS FORECAST OVERNIGHT
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST...AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE WEAKENS SOME AS WELL.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MORE TOWARD
NORTHEAST ZONES IN THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIFTING OVER THE
FRONT...WITH MORE PATCHY SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE
DRYING ALOFT TAKES SHAPE. COULD ACTUALLY BE A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT
WHERE CHARACTER OF PRECIPITATION IS MORE DRIZZLE THAN RAIN
ESPECIALLY WEST. WHERE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED ANTICIPATE LOW CLOUDS TO
RETURN AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUPPORT SURFACE FRONT REMAINING
STATIONARY OR BEING SUPPRESSED SLIGHTLY SOUTH IN WEDGE. GIVEN HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...

FOLLOWED THE GFS MORE DUE TO ITS APPARENT BETTER TRACK RECORD OF
LATE WITH THE TRACK OF SURFACE FEATURES VERSUS THE NAM. THE RESULT
FOR THURSDAY IS STILL MODEST LIFT OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST THREAT OF DEEPER
CONVECTION WILL BE IN EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND WHERE THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND NAM PROVIDE FOR THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...UNDER THE STRONGER WEDGE
OF THE GFS...THE TRIAD IS BASICALLY UNDER LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...WHEREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST LIFTED INDICES FALL TO AROUND
-2C WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO 1000J/KG OR SO UNDER A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. BEST QPF SHOULD BE IN EASTERN ZONES WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN CLOSER TO 2 INCHES...LESS TOWARD
THE FAR WEST WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES DURING THE DAY DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRYING. AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS GET LIGHTER...0-3KM HELICITY IS MUCH LESS THAN TODAY ON THE
GFS FORECAST. HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TOWARD THE
TRIAD...BUT SHOULD EASILY HIT THE MID TO UPPER 80S FAR SOUTH.

MOISTURE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH PRIMARILY A DIURNAL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DECENTLY UNSTABLE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS...AND GENERALLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM A REASONABLE FORECAST WITH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE MOIST
AIR. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE LATE SATURDAY. LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN MOS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AND LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS THOUGH NOT QUITE AS HIGH
DURING THE PERIOD AS THINK...EVEN WITH A LITTLE SUN...THE COOL
TEMPERATURES OF THE FWC AND MET ARE TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...

OUTSIDE OF SUNDAY...WHEN THERE STILL MAY BE LINGERING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHERN ZONES...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY QUIET WEATHER. THE
LATEST GFS IS RAIN FREE IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM JUST AFTER
00Z MONDAY ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WILL BE AT OR WITHIN A CATEGORY OF THE NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...

ANY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING
INTO IFR IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING...
THEN IN RAIN AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE TOO STRONG LATE TONIGHT...RISING TO ABOUT 20KT AT
850MB WITH THE AXIS OF THE STRONGER WINDS SHIFTING EAST. THURSDAY...
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...IT WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUD
HEIGHTS WITH THE LATEST AREA TO REACH MVFR OR LOW VFR BEING THE
TRIAD...IF IT GETS THERE AT ALL. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY EAST.

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE ANTICIPATED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AT LEAST IN ISOLATED
AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
THREAT OF THIS SHIFTS MORE TO THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...AND OUTSIDE OF SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ021>023-
038-039-073>075-083>085.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-076>078-086-088-089-281200-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1105 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...TORNADO WATCH 870 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE A INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN
HOUR. LOW LYING AREAS... URBAN AREAS... AND LOCATIONS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE SUCH AS CONSTRUCTION ZONES WILL BE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTS WILL BE BENEFICIAL. SPOTTERS SHOULD
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY
TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

NCZ021>023-038-039-073>075-083>085-281200-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-
1105 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 870 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE A INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN
HOUR...WHICH COULD RESULT IN RAPID FLOODING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
AN ESTIMATED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING. LOW LYING
AND URBAN AREAS...AND LOCATIONS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...WILL BE
PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTS WILL BE BENEFICIAL. SPOTTERS SHOULD
REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY
TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

DJF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
222 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0213 PM     TORNADO          3 W NEW HOPE            35.79N 78.01W
08/27/2008                   WILSON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN A TOBACCO AND SOYBEAN
            FIELD NEAR LAMM ROAD AND BLOOMERY ROAD. CURRENTLY ALOFT
            BUT WALL CLOUD STILL ROTATING.

&&

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
228 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E MCLEANSVILLE        36.10N 79.62W
08/27/2008                   GUILFORD           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THREE ROAD CLOSURES IN EASTERN GUILFORD COUNTY...HWY 61
            NEAR CONE CLUB RD...INGLED RD...AND BETHEL CHURCH RD AT
            BRIGHTWOOD CHURCH RD.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
231 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE FOREST OAKS       35.99N 79.69W
08/27/2008                   GUILFORD           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORT ROADWAY WASHED OUT AT 5100
            BLAKESHIRE RD.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RANDLEMAN               35.82N 79.80W
08/27/2008                   RANDOLPH           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING OF ROADS IS BEING REPORTED AROUND RANDLEMAN AND
            ALONG HIGHWAY 220 AS WELL AS IN LOCATIONS AROUND CLIMAX.
            SEVERAL ROADS ARE FLOODED IN NORTHEASTERN RANDOLPH
            COUNTY.

&&

RHENES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     TORNADO          RANDLEMAN               35.82N 79.80W
08/27/2008                   RANDOLPH           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED OUTBUILDING WAS LEVELED ON
            APPLEWOOD ROAD.

&&

RHENES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

NCZ077-088-272000-
CUMBERLAND-HARNETT-
310 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HARNETT AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 310 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER FORT BRAGG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR SPRING LAKE AROUND 315 PM
EDT...ANDERSON CREEK AROUND 345 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS. LIGHT OBJECTS
SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND AWNINGS COULD
BE TOSSED AROUND.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING ONE INCH DURING THE
NEXT HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH
CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

JFB