Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
324 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
VERY DIVERSE AND COMPLICATED FORECAST...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS AND PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH PROSPECTS OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOWS ALONG WITH THE WIND...WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORIES
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND REPLACE WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORIES. THESE ADVISORIES WILL BE TIME-STEPPED FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

AS FAR AS SEVERE...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST NEAR TRIPLE-
POINT. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO HIGH WIND
AS ANTICIPATED SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH PROGRESSION AND
DEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONE ALONG FRONT NEAR RED RIVER LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...PERSISTENT TRAINING EFFECTS WILL KEEP
US WITH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA.
CURRENT WATCH WILL CONTINUE AND DID NOT EXPAND IT.

AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNTS GO...TRACK OF SURFACE THROUGH MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS DO FAVOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. NAM MODEL MOST AGGRESSIVE AND AN OUTLIER AS
FAR AS PRODUCING 6+INCHES OF SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. GFS A
LITTLE LESS AND FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST BLENDS WELL WITH
COMPROMISE OF THE TWO AND CLOSE TO HPC WWD GRAPHICS. AS UPPER LOW
PULLS OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW EVENING...WOULD NOT BE
TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A MESOSCALE BAND SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF I-44 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...PRODUCING 4 TO 6 INCHES. WILL NOT GET FANCY AND TRY TO
PINPOINT AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP TOTAL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 4
INCHES AND SATISFY ADVISORY THAT WILL BE ISSUED. WITH STRONG WINDS
AND THE PERIODIC SNOW...SOME VISIBILITIES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED AND CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO LONGER PERIODS...WITH FRONTS EXPECTED
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. FORCING MINIMAL OR ABSENT WITH
THESE FRONTS AND MOISTURE FAIRLY LACKING SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
AFTER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  34  37  26  50 / 100  60  30   0
HOBART OK         33  39  25  56 /  80  60  20   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  41  29  59 /  80  70  40   0
GAGE OK           29  40  21  57 /  60  30   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     33  37  24  49 / 100  40  10   0
DURANT OK         42  42  29  51 / 100  80  60   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     OKZ018>020-022>030-033>038.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
     CST MONDAY FOR OKZ004>017-021.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 12 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ032-040>043-045>048-050>052.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ033-036.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     OKZ039-044.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ043-047-048-051-052.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR OKZ031.

TX...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     TXZ083>085.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 12 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR TXZ090.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>085-
     087-088.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     TXZ086>089.

&&

30/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES MOST ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IMPACTS...
SEVERE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE AND THUNDERSTORM WINDS UP TO 75 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE NORTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE AT MIDDAY...WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIR CONTINUED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DRY LINE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
IN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE. THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A SQUALL LINE
AND MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
WIND SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
AND CENTRAL...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE WINDS TO 75 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF HALF DOLLARS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS COLDER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST MONDAY MAR 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO THE WEST OF THE DRY LINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR
THOSE AREAS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

VERY STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RED FLAG WARNING... FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THESE HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. ACCUMATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING AN INCH OR TWO.
ACCUMLATIONS OF UP TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 44. ALONG WITH THE SNOW... STRONG NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY.

30

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HAIL             10 NNE CAMP HOUSTON     36.95N 99.05W
03/02/2008  E1.00 INCH       WOODS              OK   PUBLIC

&&

FM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
353 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

OKZ010-022215-
WOODWARD OK-
353 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WOODWARD COUNTY.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM ALABASTER CAVERNS
STATE PARK TO 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALABASTER CAVERNS STATE PARK AT
353 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
359 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

OKZ022-022215-
WASHITA OK-
359 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WASHITA COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SENTINEL AT
359 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

24