Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
BEFORE MONDAY MORNING, THERE WILL BE EFFECTIVE 3 HIGHLIGHTS FOR 3 TIMES
OVER 3 AREAS - ONE EACH OF ADVISORY, WATCH, AND WARNING. THE MAIN
STORY TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE RAIN BROUGHT BY THE APPROACH
OF A STRONG UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT. BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THE
DRY LINE WILL LIKELY BULGE INTO PART OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND A
SMALL ADJACENT AREA OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. (I AM GOING WITH THE
ACCURACY OF THE ECMWF CONCERNING THE DRY LINE POSITION THE LAST FEW
DAYS.) THIS WILL GIVE AN AFTERNOON WITH CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING.

A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ON THE DRY LINE IN
THIS AREA, BUT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE WITH THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE PACE OF THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER QUICK, THERE WILL BE
POSITIONED ABUNDANT LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS A GREATER CONCERN IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, CLOSER TO THE GREATER MOISTURE AND IN A LOCATION WHERE
THE FRONT MAY SLOW AS A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS EFFECTIVE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE THIRD HIGHLIGHT IS A WIND ADVISORY WHICH FOLLOWS THE FRONT.
SEVERAL MODELS INDICATED 40 TO 55 KT. 0-1 KM WINDS AND A MSLP
GRADIENT OF 14 MB FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OK. THE ADVISORY
BEGINS MID-EVENING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SPREADS SOUTH AND
EAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

DURING THE MORNING MONDAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
PRODUCE SNOW. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR
TRACKS OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE MONDAY. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SNOW. SOME
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A BAND WHERE AMOUNTS
EXCEED 2 INCHES MONDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS MORE
CERTAIN AND NEARER IN TIME (AND OVERNIGHT) THAN IS THE SNOW, THE
NEED FOR AN ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE REVIEWED BY LATER TODAY.

AFTER THE EVENTS OF TODAY AND MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
COOL AND DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  34  37  26 /  40 100  50  40
HOBART OK         71  34  43  26 /  60  80  50  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  37  44  29 /  40  80  60  50
GAGE OK           66  33  42  23 /  70  60  20   0
PONCA CITY OK     69  34  35  24 /  70 100  50  30
DURANT OK         71  42  38  28 /  30 100  80  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     OKZ008-013-018>020-022>029-033>039-044.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     OKZ004>007-009>012-014>017-021.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ033-
     036.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     OKZ043-047-048-051-052.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     TXZ083-085-086.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

99/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1109 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-021300-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1109 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BRINGING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO MUCH OF THE AREA.
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE... INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
AND THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST SUNDAY MAR 2.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE  WEATHER RISK APPEARS TO BE
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER FORECASTS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. FOR MORE DETAILS
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT
DRIVING CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. THE
STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MAY ALSO LEAD TO
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SUNDAY.

30/MAXWELL