Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 050505
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1206 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2008

ALC003-FLC033-050516-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-080405T0530Z/
BALDWIN AL-ESCAMBIA FL-
1206 AM CDT SAT APR 5 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA AND
CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND WERE NO LONGER SEVERE.

LAT...LON 3100 8739 3084 8733 3066 8735 3065 8788
      3078 8785 3093 8794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0506Z 262DEG 26KT 3092 8764 3082 8754
          3070 8762

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
342 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...BIGGEST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IS
THE ONGOING WEATHER OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER
DYNAMICS PART OF THIS WEATHER IS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THESE
SHORTWAVES...THERE IS A CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. RIDGE HAS BUILT NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER
EASTERN CA. WITH THE RIDGE A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED
YESTERDAY...THE EFFECT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS IS AFFECTING MORE OF THE
FA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE...THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STRETCHING FROM THE TX
GULF COAST TO NEAR KERI. SURFACE TEMPS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN SE-RN CONUS WERE
HOVERING AROUND 80(COOLER ALONG THE GULF COAST)...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE MOST ACTIVE AREA...RESULTING IN GOOD
INSTABILITY TO FEED THE WEATHER FIRE. HELPING TO MAINTAIN ON ONSHORE
FLOW IS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.....STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SC/GA/N-RN FL ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THIS CURRENT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS SWING
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE COMES INTO PLAY...WITH THE
TRAILING FRONT SLOWING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS BEING FORECASTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
20-60NM MARINE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP
AS A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...HELPING TO
MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW INTO MONDAY.

HAVE KEPT THE SEVERE WORDING OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS PULL
AWAY NORTHEAST...AM EXPECTING THE ONGOING PRECIP TO WEAKEN. THERE IS
SOME VARYING INTERPRETATIONS OF HOW FAR THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
TRAILING FRONT WILL PUSH. GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER/FASTER THAN THE
NAM/MET...RESULTING IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ABOUT 4 DEGREES ON AVERAGE
COOLER....AND THE PRECIP ENDING SOONER (SHOWN IN THE LOWER POPS MOST
OF THE AREA). HAVE WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH AGREES PRETTY MUCH WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

SUNDAY...STILL HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL SPREAD. 12Z GFS HAS PUSHED THE SHIELD FARTHER NORTH FROM THE 00Z
RUN...WHILE THE NAM HAS MAINTAINED MORE CONTINUITY. HAVE BUMPED THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION DOWN A BIT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY ON)...BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY...SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RE-ASSERTED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS A SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...DIRECTING THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND KEEPING ANY FRONT FROM
APPROACHING THE FA. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING OVER THE
WESTERN-MOST PARTS OF THE FA AND POINTS WEST.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOSTLY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE
A TRAILING FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE
SATURDAY...WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...WEAK
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THE COMING WEEK. SOME DRYING OUT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  76  58  80  61 /  90  70  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   67  73  60  78  63 /  80  80  10  20  10
DESTIN      66  73  62  77  64 /  70  80  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  74  53  80  56 /  90  80  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  58  74  49  80  54 / 100  60  10  10  10
CAMDEN      62  71  52  80  55 / 100  70  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
918 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-060400-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
918 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER ON FRIDAY IN MISSISSIPPI
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM LUCEDALE MISSISSIPPI TO GREENVILLE ALABAMA THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. A COOLER AIR
MASS HAS MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY DECREASED
THE CHANCE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO POSSIBILITY
SEVERE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LINGER INTO
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND WESTERN FLORIDA...APPEARS TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BUILD
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
613 PM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             N RICHTON               31.35N 88.94W
04/04/2008  E1.00 INCH       PERRY              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL FOR 5 MINUTES AND COVERED THE
            GROUND IN RICHTON, MISSISSIPPI.

&&

JOHNW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
635 PM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             4 NW SAND HILL          31.39N 88.81W
04/04/2008  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MS   UNKNOWN

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG HWY 42 NEAR THE BORDER
            OF PERRY AND GREENE COUNTY.

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
726 PM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TEN MILE                30.76N 89.15W
04/04/2008                   STONE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NEAR TEN MILE...TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

JW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
914 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

ALZ061-062-050300-
UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY MINETTE...
914 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER BALDWIN AND MOBILE
COUNTIES...

AT 910 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF SALCO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
I65 AND AL 225...STOCKTON...I65 AND AL 59...DOUGLASVILLE...I65 AND AL
287...BAY MINETTE...DYAS AND CARNEY THROUGH 1000 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1023 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

ALZ056-059-050430-
ESCAMBIA-CONECUH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BREWTON...
1023 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER ESCAMBIA AND CONECUH
COUNTIES...

AT 1020 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR POARCH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
HUXFORD...LITTLE ROCK...SARDINE...VOCATION AND I65 AND AL 113 THROUGH
1130 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1126 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

ALZ062-064-050530-
UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY MINETTE...
1126 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DETECTED OVER BALDWIN COUNTY...

AT 1121 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF HURRICANE TO 4 MILES
SOUTH OF I10 NEAR THE BATTLESHIP...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
I65 AND AL 225...SPANISH FORT...I65 AND AL 59...DOUGLASVILLE...I65
AND AL 287...BAY MINETTE...CARNEY AND LOXLEY THROUGH 1230 AM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.