Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 050155
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
853 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

ALC003-097-050215-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-080405T0215Z/
BALDWIN AL-MOBILE AL-
853 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL MOBILE AND WEST CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTIES...

AT 852 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 23 MILES NORTH OF DOWNTOWN 
MOBILE TO 16 MILES WEST OF DOWNTOWN MOBILE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CHASTANG...SATSUMA...SARALAND AND MAGNOLIA GROVE GOLF COURSE BY 900
  PM CDT...
  BUCKS...WHISTLER...UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH ALABAMA AND SARALAND BY 905
  PM CDT...
  SPRING HILL COLLEGE AND PRICHARD BY 910 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3058 8788 3059 8795 3064 8795 3066 8797
      3066 8802 3061 8805 3074 8841 3109 8832
      3109 8775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 292DEG 27KT 3100 8813 3087 8813
          3072 8829

$$

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 050212
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
911 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

ALC003-097-050221-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-080405T0215Z/
BALDWIN AL-MOBILE AL-
911 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MOBILE AND WEST 
CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 915 PM CDT...


A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3058 8788 3059 8795 3064 8795 3066 8797
      3066 8802 3061 8805 3074 8841 3109 8832
      3109 8775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 292DEG 27KT 3095 8798 3082 8798
          3067 8814

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
342 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...BIGGEST ITEM TO DEAL WITH IS
THE ONGOING WEATHER OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER
DYNAMICS PART OF THIS WEATHER IS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THESE
SHORTWAVES...THERE IS A CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/EASTERN
GULF OF MEX. RIDGE HAS BUILT NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER
EASTERN CA. WITH THE RIDGE A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED
YESTERDAY...THE EFFECT OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS IS AFFECTING MORE OF THE
FA THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE...THE
SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STRETCHING FROM THE TX
GULF COAST TO NEAR KERI. SURFACE TEMPS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN SE-RN CONUS WERE
HOVERING AROUND 80(COOLER ALONG THE GULF COAST)...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THE MOST ACTIVE AREA...RESULTING IN GOOD
INSTABILITY TO FEED THE WEATHER FIRE. HELPING TO MAINTAIN ON ONSHORE
FLOW IS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.....STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SC/GA/N-RN FL ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THIS CURRENT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS SWING
EAST...THEN NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE COMES INTO PLAY...WITH THE
TRAILING FRONT SLOWING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FA BEGINNING LATE THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT IS BEING FORECASTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
20-60NM MARINE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP
AS A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE GULF SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE FA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...HELPING TO
MAINTAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW INTO MONDAY.

HAVE KEPT THE SEVERE WORDING OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT AS THE INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND THE UPPER DYNAMICS PULL
AWAY NORTHEAST...AM EXPECTING THE ONGOING PRECIP TO WEAKEN. THERE IS
SOME VARYING INTERPRETATIONS OF HOW FAR THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
TRAILING FRONT WILL PUSH. GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER/FASTER THAN THE
NAM/MET...RESULTING IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ABOUT 4 DEGREES ON AVERAGE
COOLER....AND THE PRECIP ENDING SOONER (SHOWN IN THE LOWER POPS MOST
OF THE AREA). HAVE WENT WITH A BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH AGREES PRETTY MUCH WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.

SUNDAY...STILL HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP SHIELD
WILL SPREAD. 12Z GFS HAS PUSHED THE SHIELD FARTHER NORTH FROM THE 00Z
RUN...WHILE THE NAM HAS MAINTAINED MORE CONTINUITY. HAVE BUMPED THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTION DOWN A BIT AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY ON)...BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY...SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS RE-ASSERTED ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS A SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...DIRECTING THE
UPPER DYNAMICS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND KEEPING ANY FRONT FROM
APPROACHING THE FA. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING OVER THE
WESTERN-MOST PARTS OF THE FA AND POINTS WEST.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOSTLY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. A LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE
A TRAILING FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE
SATURDAY...WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...WEAK
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THE COMING WEEK. SOME DRYING OUT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA
LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      66  76  58  80  61 /  90  70  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   67  73  60  78  63 /  80  80  10  20  10
DESTIN      66  73  62  77  64 /  70  80  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   64  74  53  80  56 /  90  80  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  58  74  49  80  54 / 100  60  10  10  10
CAMDEN      62  71  52  80  55 / 100  70  10  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
800 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-060200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
800 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THESE STRONGER STORMS.

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS EASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY BUILD
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
613 PM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             N RICHTON               31.35N 88.94W
04/04/2008  E1.00 INCH       PERRY              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL FOR 5 MINUTES AND COVERED THE
            GROUND IN RICHTON, MISSISSIPPI.

&&

JOHNW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
635 PM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             4 NW SAND HILL          31.39N 88.81W
04/04/2008  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MS   UNKNOWN

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ALONG HWY 42 NEAR THE BORDER
            OF PERRY AND GREENE COUNTY.

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
726 PM CDT FRI APR 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TEN MILE                30.76N 89.15W
04/04/2008                   STONE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NEAR TEN MILE...TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

JW