Tropical Storm Warning 1, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
432 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVING ACROSS CUBA THIS MORNING
WITH RAIN BANDS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS AND INTO MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA. FAY REMAINS DISJOINTED THIS MORNING WITH THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION REMOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ACTUAL SURFACE
CENTER BUT AT ANY RATE PWATS ANDS HELICITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE STORM NEARS THE CWA, AND INDEED WEAK,
VERY WEAK ROTATION HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED WITH SOME OF THE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF STEAM. WITH FAY REMAINING
DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING THIS POSES HUGE UNCERTAINTIES TO THE
FORECAST TRACK, BUT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA
AND CONTINUE INTO LATE TUES / EARLY WED WITH 4 TO 8 RAINFALL
TOTALS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. REFER TO THE
LATEST LOCAL HLS FOR ALL EXPECTED THREATS AND NHC FOR THE LATEST
EXPECTED TRACK.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE CWA WITH POPS AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO VALUES FOR S FL
IN THE SUMMER.

&&

.MARINE...AS FAY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 12 FEET IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
AND TO AROUND 8 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING SEAS AS IT
DOES SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REBUILD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LOWER WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  78  86  76 / 90 90 80 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  79  86  77 / 90 90 80 60
MIAMI            84  79  86  76 / 90 90 80 60
NAPLES           88  76  85  77 / 80 90 90 70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-
     FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-
     FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ063-
     FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074.

     HURRICANE WATCH FOR FLZ069-FLZ075-FLZ174.

     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-
     AMZ671.

GM...HURRICANE WATCH FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-GMZ676.

&&

TINGLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
535 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

CORRECTION TO ADD FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA IN HEADLINES

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-190000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL
BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
535 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...
...FLOOD WATCH SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEE THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE MIAMI NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI TO GET DETAILS ABOUT THE WEATHER EFFECTS
ON SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THIS TROPICAL STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TROPICAL STORM FAY COULD STILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM FAY AFFECTS SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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