Tornado Warning 33, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
237 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...T.S. FAY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FL STRAITS AND
THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE CURRENT FCST FROM
NHC/TPC. THIS WILL BRING ABUNDANT RAINFALL ACROSS S FL AS CLEARLY
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KAMX 88-D AS WELL AS SURROUNDING
RADARS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS FAY PASSES NEAR KEY
WEST AND THEN OFF THE SW CST OF THE PENINSULA AS THE STORM TURNS
MORE TO THE NORTH IN DIRECTION ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION OF
THE CWA. THIS PLACES ALL OF S FLA IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STORM
WHICH FAVORS INCREASING SHEAR AND THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES. ALL
ADVISORIES THAT HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND MAV GUIDANCE ALSO APPEARS TO
BE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FCST SO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT NOT MANY
CHANGES TO WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN STATED. BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT IS
REALLY UP IN THE AIR AT THIS TIME. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND BY WEDNESDAY EMERGES IN THE
ATLANTIC AND THEN STALLS WITH THE GFS TAKING IT BACK TO THE WEST
INTO THE NE GULF BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ALSO STALLS FAY IN THE
ATLANTIC AND THEN DRIFTS IT BACK TO THE NW INTO THE SE U.S. SO
WITH SUCH HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED, DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE
CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND WILL LEAN BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TRACONS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MORE THAN
VCTS/CB AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER
ALL TERMINALS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER FROM
E TO SE BY END OF FORECAST...WITH SPEEDS ALSO INCREASING TO 15G25
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...AS FAY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO AROUND 12 FEET IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS AND TO
AROUND 10 OR 11 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING SEAS AS IT DOES
SO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  86  74  90 / 90 80 60 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  86  74  90 / 90 80 60 50
MIAMI            75  86  75  90 / 90 80 60 50
NAPLES           74  85  78  87 / 90 90 70 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-
     FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-
     FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ063-
     FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074.

     HURRICANE WARNING FOR FLZ069-FLZ075.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

     HURRICANE WATCH FOR FLZ174.

     TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL ZONES UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-
     AMZ671.

GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-GMZ676.

&&

LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-191000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
256 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWEST GULF COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH MIAMI-DADE, ATLANTIC COAST AND WATERS...
...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINDER OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT ENTIRE MAINLAND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG ALL COASTAL AREAS, WITH A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS CONTINUING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

TORNADOES: VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE MAINLAND THROUGH 11 PM EDT.

WATERSPOUTS: WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

WIND: WIND GUSTS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ALL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

FLOODING: VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, AS TROPICAL STORM FAY APPROACHES THE AREA. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES,
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SPOTS.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY.

WAVES: WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN HIGH WAVES, WITH WAVES IN EXCESS OF 12 FEET POSSIBLE
IN THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL STILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM FAY AFFECTS SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

70/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1211 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FLZ071-073-181645-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-INLAND MIAMI-DADE FL-
1211 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR MIAMI-DADE...

AT 1211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MICCOSUKEE RESORT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

  RURAL NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
  RURAL SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.
POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM AND A WEAK
TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME.

ADDITIONALLY...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE EVEN IN ABSENCE
OF A TORNADO.

LAT...LON 2574 8050 2594 8079 2598 8069 2598 8055
      2579 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 1611Z 140DEG 26KT 2580 8049

GS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
125 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FLZ071-073-074-173-181815-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-INLAND MIAMI-
DADE FL-COASTAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
125 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE...

AT 125 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PINECREST TO
GOULDS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

SOUTH MIAMI...
CORAL WAY VILLAGE...
VIRGINIA GARDENS...
DORAL...
MEDLEY...
INTERSECTION KROME AND U.S. 27...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

THESE STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

LAT...LON 2568 8017 2569 8019 2572 8018 2573 8022
      2572 8024 2570 8024 2569 8025 2563 8027
      2560 8031 2559 8030 2547 8046 2588 8082
      2603 8050 2590 8038 2569 8016
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 140DEG 30KT 2571 8030 2560 8045

GS