Hurricane Warning 1, NWS Miami, FL

000
WTUS82 KMFL 181905 AAA
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...

.AT 200 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT
130 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES, 135 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI, OR ABOUT
185 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH.
 
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD PASS OVER
THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND PASS CLOSE
TO NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND ON TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND FAY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.

FLZ174-182215-
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/O.CON.KMFL.HU.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
TIMING UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
	HURRICANE WATCH.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS FOR FAY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH, ARE NOW
OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE
FAR SOUTH DADE COUNTY AREA BY 3 PM.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

STORM TIDE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF FLORIDA BAY EAST OF FLAMINGO
WILL POSSIBLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONSHORE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITH FAY, PARTICULARLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT THESE TIMES. HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY WILL BE MID AFTERNOON TODAY.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH,
ARE NOW OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WILL BE MOVING
INTO FAR SOUTH DADE COUNTY BY 3 PM. WITH THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 75 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COAST
EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH,
WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 3 TO 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR SOUTH
MIAMI-DADE COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 74
MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SPIRAL
BANDS HAVE PERSISTED FOR A FEW HOURS. MARATHON IN THE MIDDLE KEYS
REPORTED OVER THREE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 2 PM EDT. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 PM EDT.

$$

FLZ069-075-182215-
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COASTAL COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
TIMING UPDATED.
RAINFALL UPDATED.
STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	COASTAL COLLIER...MAINLAND MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE EFFECTS OF
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD METRO COLLIER COUNTY AND
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FAY WILL LIKELY BE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. 

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR COASTAL
RESIDENTS OF CHOKOLOSKEE, HENDERSON CREEK, EVERGLADES CITY,
GOODLAND, MARCO ISLAND, GORDON RIVER, AND ANY OTHER EXPOSED LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THE STATEMENT ALSO APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF
MANUFACTURED HOMES. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
ANTICIPATES OPENING THREE SHELTERS AROUND 4 PM EDT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST VERY CLOSE TO
NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND INCREASING TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
TUESDAY MORNING JUST OFF THE COLLIER COASTLINE. GIVEN THE FORECAST
WIND CONDITIONS AS THE STORM PASSES, STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 6 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE SABLE AND FLAMINGO AREAS OF
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND 4 AM AND AGAIN AT 4 PM TUESDAY. A STORM TIDE OF 4 TO 6
FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAINLAND
MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE FROM CHOKOLOSKEE AND
EVERGLADES CITY WEST TO COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK, GOODLAND AND
MARCO ISLAND FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT THE
SECOND HIGH TIDE AROUND 5 PM TUESDAY. MINOR FLOODING OF COASTAL
ROADS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE.

HOWEVER, SHOULD THE STORM BE STRONGER OR MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 10 FEET AT ANY
GIVEN COASTAL LOCATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE
THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. A STORM TIDE OF 10 FEET WOULD MEAN THAT
MANY ROADWAYS COULD GO UNDERWATER INCLUDING PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI
TRAIL, STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 WHICH LINK MARCO ISLAND TO THE
MAINLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 WHICH LINKS CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES
CITY TO THE TAMIAMI TRAIL. COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK WOULD ALSO
HAVE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING.

FOR COASTAL RESIDENTS OF NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND, A STORM TIDE OF
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM 6 AM TO
NOON WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH WATER CONTINUING THROUGH THE TIME OF THE
SECOND HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ROUGHLY 3 PM.

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN URGED BY COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT FOR MANY RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN COLLIER
COUNTY.

...WINDS...

WIND SPEEDS ACROSS METRO COLLIER COUNTY AT 2 PM RANGE FROM 12 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH IN SOME PLACES, STILL WELL
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE,
WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE REACHING THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE METRO
COLLIER COASTLINE INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND, FROM LATE EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY
NIGHT. CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF
74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. FAY HAS A VERY LOPSIDED WIND FIELD BUT ON THE
PRESENT FORECAST TRACK SOME OF THE STRONGEST CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR METRO NAPLES AND
MARCO ISLAND.

WINDS IN THIS SPEED RANGE ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES AND TRAILERS, PORCHES, CARPORTS, AWNINGS, POOL
ENCLOSURES AND WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE BRANCHES
BREAK OFF TREES, BUT SHALLOW ROOTED OR DISEASED TREES COULD BE
BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS ARE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND BECOME
DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. THESE WINDS AREA ALSO DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES
AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE TRUCKS
AND BUSES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO LIKELY, ESPECIALLY WHERE
POWER LINES ARE EXPOSED ABOVE GROUND.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A 70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF
COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 7 TO 11 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN THROUGH 2 PM IN THE NAPLES AND MARCO
ISLAND AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE
TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE
DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE
SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE
TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN
DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 PM EDT.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-182215-
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COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 
20 TO 60 NM-
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
TIMING UPDATED.
WINDS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM...
	COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 
	NM...GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING 
	FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WITH A HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT, MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS AS THE SPIRAL BANDS FROM FAY ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

...WINDS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH,
AND A GUST TO 33 MPH WAS REPORTED AT 220 PM EDT AT FLAMINGO. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS BETTER THAN AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS
OF 39 TO 73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING HURRICANE
CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING NEAR HURRICANE FORCE ARE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING, WITH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET
OFFSHORE AND FROM 7 TO 10 FEET NEARSHORE, BECOMING EXTREMELY ROUGH
AND CONFUSED. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY,
AS WINDS INCREASE. MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN SAFE PORT. BEACH
EROSION IS LIKELY AS FAY PASSES BY THE AREA AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 PM EDT.

$$

FLZ168-172-173-182215-
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COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
WINDS UPDATED.
RAINFALL REPORTS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL MIAMI DADE...COASTAL PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST WHERE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THREE SHELTERS FOR PERSONS WISHING
TO EVACUATE FROM MOBILE HOMES OR HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE NOW
OPEN FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY RESIDENTS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. WATER LEVELS 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. SHOULD FAY
BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WATER
LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 THIS
EVENING.

...WINDS...

A PEAK WIND GUST TO 61 MPH WAS REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT
AROUND 120 PM, AND A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH WAS REPORTED AT VIRGINIA
KEY AT 240 PM. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING
NORTH THROUGH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND WILL BE MOVING INTO BROWARD
COUNTY BY 5 PM EDT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF FAY MOVES
DIRECTLY ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM
BEACH AREAS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THROUGH 2 PM AT BOTH MIAMI AND
FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS. ALMOST TWO AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT DELRAY BEACH AND TWO AND A
QUARTER INCHES HAS FALLEN AT POMPANO BEACH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 PM EDT.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-182215-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T1200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
WIND EFFECTS UPDATED.
TIMING UPDATED.
RAINFALL UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND BROWARD...INLAND COLLIER...INLAND 
	MIAMI DADE...INLAND PALM BEACH...METRO BROWARD...METRO MIAMI 
	DADE...METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. SPIRAL BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY
ARE MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA NOW PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE HOMES OR LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED AREAS TO FIND SHELTER
WITH FRIENDS OR RELATIVES IN BETTER BUILT OR PROTECTED STRUCTURES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST AT THIS TIME. WATER LEVELS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO
ONSHORE WIND FLOW TODAY AND TUESDAY. SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA, WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 THIS
EVENING.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY, AND CLEWISTON
AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE
WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON
THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...WINDS...

WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND WILL BE SPREADING INTO INLAND BROWARD COUNTY
BY 5 PM EDT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WIND SPEEDS
ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SQUALLS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY, BECOMING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN
SQUALLS BY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IF FAY MOVES
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA DIRECTLY, WINDS WOULD BE HIGHER WITH
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SQUALLS.

ACROSS INLAND COLLIER, GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SQUALLS. WINDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO CARPORTS, AWNINGS, AND POOL
ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS
IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM
BEACH AREAS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 65 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE LA BELLE, CLEWISTON AND MOORE HAVEN AREAS. THERE
IS ABOUT A 4 TO 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ALL
THREE LOCATIONS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THROUGH 2 PM AT BOTH MIAMI AND
FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS. ALMOST TWO AND A
HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT DELRAY BEACH AND TWO AND A
QUARTER INCHES HAS FALLEN AT POMPANO BEACH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 PM EDT.

$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-182215-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
305 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED.
WIND SPEEDS UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	BISCAYNE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN 
	REEF, FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO 
	DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM...LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WATERS FROM 
	DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE 
	TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS...WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET 
	TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL PRECAUTIONS FOR FAY.
MARINE CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT THROUGH TUESDAY.

...WINDS...

A PEAK WIND GUST TO 61 MPH WAS REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT
AROUND 120 PM, AND A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH WAS REPORTED AT VIRGINIA
KEY AT 240 PM. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BROWARD COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY
6 PM EDT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF FAY MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE, BECOMING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS
LATER THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO
45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE BEGINNING
AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY LASTING UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 35 TO 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE
IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE IS ABOUT A 4 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...

THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WILL BE IN A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. IF FAY MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA,
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 7 TO 9 FEET
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND
POSSIBLY MINOR BEACH EROSION. THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY,
BECOMING 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS THIS
EVENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE BEGINNING AROUND 3
AM TUESDAY LASTING UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY. SINCE FAY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH
SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL
POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE
BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH
BAY AND CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE
DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 PM EDT.

$$

000
WTUS82 KMFL 182319
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

.AT 500 PM EDT, 2100Z, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST. THIS
LOCATION IS ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES AND 130 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FAY AWAY
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT, AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND FAY IS FORECAST
TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

FLZ174-190600-
/O.UPG.KMFL.HU.A.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED.
WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOOD SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
        TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS FOR FAY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH, ARE NOW
OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WILL BE SPREADING TO FAR
SOUTH DADE COUNTY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

STORM TIDE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF FLORIDA BAY EAST OF FLAMINGO
COULD POSSIBLY 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONSHORE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITH FAY, PARTICULARLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT THESE TIMES. HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF FLORIDA BAY WILL BE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY MORNING.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS, GUSTING AS HIGH AS 60 MPH,
ARE NOW OCCURRING IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD INTO FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OR HIGHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE THAT IF THE STORM TRACKS RIGHT OF TRACK AND INTENSIFIES
FURTHER THAT WINDS COULD END UP BEING STRONGER.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR SOUTH MIAMI-
DADE COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR
SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR WINDS
OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

MAXIMUM RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SPIRAL
BANDS HAVE PERSISTED FOR A FEW HOURS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS
RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL
RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE
ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE
SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 PM EDT.

$$

FLZ069-075-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOOD SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STORM TIDE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL COLLIER, MAINLAND
MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE EFFECTS OF
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD METRO COLLIER COUNTY AND
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT. 
DESPITE THE FACT FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IT BECOMES A HURRICANE AND
SHOULD IT TRACK FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THANT FORECAST IT COULD BRING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS POSSIBILITY WERE TO
MATERIALIZE, IT COULD HAPPEN ANYTIME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AND
THEREFORE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR COASTAL
RESIDENTS OF CHOKOLOSKEE, HENDERSON CREEK, EVERGLADES CITY,
GOODLAND, MARCO ISLAND, GORDON RIVER, AND ANY OTHER EXPOSED LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF
MANUFACTURED HOMES. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
WAS ANTICIPATING OPENING THREE SHELTERS AROUND 4 PM EDT EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WITHIN 20
NAUTICAL MILES OF NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND AS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST WIND CONDITIONS AS THE STORM PASSES, STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE SABLE AND FLAMINGO AREAS OF
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND 4 AM AND AGAIN AT 4 PM TUESDAY. A STORM TIDE OF UP TO
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE FROM CHOKOLOSKEE AND
EVERGLADES CITY WEST TO COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK, GOODLAND AND
MARCO ISLAND ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN THE 3 AM
TO 5 AM TIME PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT THE SECOND
HIGH TIDE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS THREAT WILL BE
PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. WITH THESE CONDITIONS MINOR FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS LIKELY PARTICULARLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE AND WHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGEST.

HOWEVER, SHOULD THE STORM BE STRONGER OR MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 10 FEET AT ANY
GIVEN COASTAL LOCATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE
THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. A STORM TIDE OF 10 FEET WOULD MEAN THAT
MANY ROADWAYS COULD GO UNDERWATER INCLUDING PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI
TRAIL, STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 WHICH LINK MARCO ISLAND TO THE
MAINLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 WHICH LINKS CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES
CITY TO THE TAMIAMI TRAIL. COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK WOULD ALSO
HAVE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING.

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN URGED BY COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT FOR MANY RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN COLLIER
COUNTY.

...WINDS...

WIND SPEEDS ACROSS METRO COLLIER COUNTY AT 6 PM RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH IN SOME PLACES, STILL WELL
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HOWEVER, FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, AT
FLAMINGO STATION, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AROUND 33 MPH GUSTING TO
AROUND 40 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 50 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS POSSIBLY
REACHING THE METRO COLLIER COASTLINE INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO
ISLAND, BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING RATHER WINDY STILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD
FAY TRACK RIGHT OF FORECAST OR END UP BEING STRONGER, CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY.

WINDS IN THIS SPEED RANGE ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES AND TRAILERS, PORCHES, CARPORTS, AWNINGS,
POOL ENCLOSURES AND WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES, BUT SHALLOW ROOTED OR DISEASED TREES
COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS ARE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND
BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. THESE WINDS AREA ALSO DANGEROUS ON
BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE
TRUCKS AND BUSES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WHERE POWER LINES ARE EXPOSED ABOVE GROUND.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN SO FAR IN THE NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND
AREAS WITH RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY AREA SO FAR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL
CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES
AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN
PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN
ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN
UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 PM EDT.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 
20 TO 60 NM-
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE
TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 60 NM, COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE
TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WITH A HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT, MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS AS THE SPIRAL BANDS FROM FAY ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS BETTER THAN AN 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS
OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING HURRICANE
CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS, AND A GUST TO 44
KNOTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS WAS REPORTED AT 600 PM EDT
AT FLAMINGO. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 64
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE LIKELY FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND FROM 7 TO 10 FEET
NEARSHORE, BECOMING EXTREMELY ROUGH AND CONFUSED. SURF ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND
DANGEROUS TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, AS WINDS INCREASE.
MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN SAFE PORT. BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS FAY
PASSES BY THE AREA AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 PM EDT.

$$

FLZ168-172-173-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOODING HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL BROWARD, COASTAL MIAMI
DADE, COASTAL PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST WHERE A HURRICANE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THREE SHELTERS FOR PERSONS WISHING TO
EVACUATE FROM MOBILE HOMES OR HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE NOW
OPEN FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY RESIDENTS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. WATER LEVELS OF 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11
PM TONIGHT AND 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

...WINDS...

PEAK WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN RANGING IN
THE 45 TO 60 MPH RANGE MAINLY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS IN MIAMI
DADE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LATEST
FORECAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SHOULD FAY TRACK
EAST OF THE FORECAST AND SHOULD IT BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST,
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME BEGINNING TONIGHT.
THEREFORE, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM
BEACH AREAS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

THROUGH THIS EVENING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAVE
BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST LOCAL AMOUNTS
OBSERVED SO FAR AROUND POMPANO BEACH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 PM EDT.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T1200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOODING HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND
BROWARD, INLAND COLLIER, INLAND MIAMI DADE, INLAND PALM
BEACH, METRO BROWARD, METRO MIAMI DADE, METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. SPIRAL BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY
ARE MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA NOW PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE HOMES OR LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED AREAS TO FIND SHELTER
WITH FRIENDS OR RELATIVES IN BETTER BUILT OR PROTECTED STRUCTURES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. WATER LEVELS OF 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11
PM TONIGHT AND 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY, AND CLEWISTON
AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE
WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON
THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...WINDS...

WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMINDER OF THE AREA GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT. ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE COASTS WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 20
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SQUALLS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, IF FAY
MOVES ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA DIRECTLY, WINDS WOULD BE
HIGHER WITH GUSTS TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR EVEN HURRICANE
FORCE STILL POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY.

UNDER THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR INLAND COLLIER, GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES, WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM JUST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO CARPORTS, AWNINGS, AND POOL
ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS
IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES INLAND. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

THERE IS ABOUT 80 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND COLLIER, HENDRY, AND GLADES COUNTY AREAS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS ABOUT A 5 TO
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE MIAMI DADE PORTION
OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL
CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES
AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN
PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN
ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN
UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 PM EDT.


$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
719 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: BISCAYNE BAY, LAKE OKEECHOBEE,
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NAUTICAL
MILES. 

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL PRECAUTIONS FOR FAY.
MARINE CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 35 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE
IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE IS ABOUT A 4 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...

THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WILL BE IN A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

A PEAK WIND GUST TO 53 KNOTS WAS REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT
EARLIER TODAY. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS ARE NOW
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BROWARD COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. IF FAY MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA, SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLY
MINOR BEACH EROSION. THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST PARTICULARLY THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BECOMING 30 TO 35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING LIKE SO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY THE EVENING. PEAK WINDS WITH THE EVENT IN
THE CURRENT SCENARIO COULD POSSIBLY REACH 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS IN SQUALLS DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF
THE LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS
FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY AND CLEWISTON AREAS.
IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER
LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE
DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 PM EDT.

$$

000
WTUS82 KMFL 190137
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUE IN EFFECT...

.AT 800 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH
OF NAPLES FLORIDA OR 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND FAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

FLZ069-075-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-
937 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOOD SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STORM TIDE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL COLLIER, MAINLAND
MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE EFFECTS OF
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD METRO COLLIER COUNTY AND
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT. 
DESPITE THE FACT FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IT BECOMES A HURRICANE AND
SHOULD IT TRACK FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THANT FORECAST IT COULD BRING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS POSSIBILITY WERE TO
MATERIALIZE, IT COULD HAPPEN ANYTIME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AND
THEREFORE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR COASTAL
RESIDENTS OF CHOKOLOSKEE, HENDERSON CREEK, EVERGLADES CITY,
GOODLAND, MARCO ISLAND, GORDON RIVER, AND ANY OTHER EXPOSED LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF
MANUFACTURED HOMES. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
WAS ANTICIPATING OPENING THREE SHELTERS AROUND 4 PM EDT EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WITHIN 20
NAUTICAL MILES OF NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND AS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST WIND CONDITIONS AS THE STORM PASSES, STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE SABLE AND FLAMINGO AREAS OF
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND 4 AM AND AGAIN AT 4 PM TUESDAY. A STORM TIDE OF UP TO
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE FROM CHOKOLOSKEE AND
EVERGLADES CITY WEST TO COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK, GOODLAND AND
MARCO ISLAND ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN THE 3 AM
TO 5 AM TIME PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT THE SECOND
HIGH TIDE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS THREAT WILL BE
PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. WITH THESE CONDITIONS MINOR FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS LIKELY PARTICULARLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE AND WHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGEST.

HOWEVER, SHOULD THE STORM BE STRONGER OR MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 10 FEET AT ANY
GIVEN COASTAL LOCATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE
THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. A STORM TIDE OF 10 FEET WOULD MEAN THAT
MANY ROADWAYS COULD GO UNDERWATER INCLUDING PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI
TRAIL, STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 WHICH LINK MARCO ISLAND TO THE
MAINLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 WHICH LINKS CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES
CITY TO THE TAMIAMI TRAIL. COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK WOULD ALSO
HAVE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING.

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN URGED BY COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT FOR MANY RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN COLLIER
COUNTY.

...WINDS...

WIND SPEEDS ACROSS METRO COLLIER COUNTY AT 8 PM RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH IN SOME PLACES, STILL WELL
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HOWEVER, FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, AT
FLAMINGO STATION, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTING
CLOSE TO 60 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 50 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS POSSIBLY
REACHING THE METRO COLLIER COASTLINE INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO
ISLAND, AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING RATHER WINDY STILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD
FAY TRACK RIGHT OF FORECAST OR END UP BEING STRONGER, CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY.

WINDS IN THIS SPEED RANGE ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES AND TRAILERS, PORCHES, CARPORTS, AWNINGS,
POOL ENCLOSURES AND WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES, BUT SHALLOW ROOTED OR DISEASED TREES
COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS ARE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND
BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. THESE WINDS AREA ALSO DANGEROUS ON
BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE
TRUCKS AND BUSES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WHERE POWER LINES ARE EXPOSED ABOVE GROUND.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN SO FAR IN THE NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND
AREAS WITH RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY AREA SO FAR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL
CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES
AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN
PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN
ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN
UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 
20 TO 60 NM-
937 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE
TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 60 NM, COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE
TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WITH A HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT, MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS AS THE SPIRAL BANDS FROM FAY ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS BETTER THAN AN 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS
OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING HURRICANE
CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS, AND A GUST TO 50
KNOTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42 KNOTS WAS REPORTED AT 903 PM EDT
AT FLAMINGO. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 64
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE LIKELY FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND FROM 7 TO 10 FEET
NEARSHORE, BECOMING EXTREMELY ROUGH AND CONFUSED. SURF ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND
DANGEROUS TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, AS WINDS INCREASE.
MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN SAFE PORT. BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS FAY
PASSES BY THE AREA AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

FLZ168-172>174-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
937 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL BROWARD, COASTAL MIAMI
DADE, COASTAL PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST WHERE A HURRICANE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THREE SHELTERS FOR PERSONS WISHING TO
EVACUATE FROM MOBILE HOMES OR HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE NOW
OPEN FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY RESIDENTS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. WATER LEVELS OF 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11
PM TONIGHT AND 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

...WINDS...

ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM PALM BEACH TO COASTAL MIAMI DADE ON
THE ATLANTIC SIDE, PEAK WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
HAVE BEEN RANGING IN THE 45 TO 60 MPH RANGE MAINLY ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN MIAMI DADE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE
LATEST FORECAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SHOULD FAY
TRACK EAST OF THE FORECAST AND SHOULD IT BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST, STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME BEGINNING
TONIGHT. THEREFORE, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN
EFFECT.

FOR FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE ADJACENT TO FLORIDA BAY, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IF
THE STORM TRACKS RIGHT OF TRACK AND INTENSIFIES FURTHER THAT WINDS
COULD END UP BEING STRONGER.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM
BEACH AREAS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR SOUTH MIAMI-
DADE COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR
SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR WINDS
OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

THROUGH THIS EVENING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAVE
BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST LOCAL AMOUNTS
OBSERVED SO FAR AROUND NORTHEAST BROWARD AND SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH
COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL
CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES
AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN
PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN
ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN
UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T1200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
937 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND
BROWARD, INLAND COLLIER, INLAND MIAMI DADE, INLAND PALM
BEACH, METRO BROWARD, METRO MIAMI DADE, METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. SPIRAL BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY
ARE MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA NOW PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE HOMES OR LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED AREAS TO FIND SHELTER
WITH FRIENDS OR RELATIVES IN BETTER BUILT OR PROTECTED STRUCTURES.

GLADES COUNTY HAS OPENED A SHELTER AT LAKES SHORE MIDDLE SCHOOL.
HENDRY COUNTY HAS ALSO OPENED A SHELTER IN LA BELLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. WATER LEVELS OF 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11
PM TONIGHT AND 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY, AND CLEWISTON
AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE
WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON
THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...WINDS...

WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMINDER OF THE AREA GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT. ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE COASTS WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 20
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SQUALLS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, IF FAY
MOVES ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA DIRECTLY, WINDS WOULD BE
HIGHER WITH GUSTS TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR EVEN HURRICANE
FORCE STILL POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY.

UNDER THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR INLAND COLLIER, GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES, WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM JUST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO CARPORTS, AWNINGS, AND POOL
ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS
IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES INLAND. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

THERE IS ABOUT 80 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND COLLIER, HENDRY, AND GLADES COUNTY AREAS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS ABOUT A 5 TO
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST BROWARD AND SOUTHEAST
PALM BEACH COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS
RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL
RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE
ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE
SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-190600-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
937 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: BISCAYNE BAY, LAKE OKEECHOBEE,
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NAUTICAL
MILES. 

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL PRECAUTIONS FOR FAY.
MARINE CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 35 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE
IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE IS ABOUT A 4 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...

THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WILL BE IN A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

A PEAK WIND GUST TO 44 KNOTS WAS REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT
AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BROWARD COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. IF FAY MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA, SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLY
MINOR BEACH EROSION. THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST PARTICULARLY THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BECOMING 30 TO 35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING LIKE SO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY THE EVENING. PEAK WINDS WITH THE EVENT IN
THE CURRENT SCENARIO COULD POSSIBLY REACH 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS IN SQUALLS DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF
THE LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS
FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY AND CLEWISTON AREAS.
IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER
LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE
DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

000
WTUS82 KMFL 190202 CCA
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
947 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUE IN EFFECT...

.AT 800 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH
OF NAPLES FLORIDA OR 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND FAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

FLZ069-075-190630-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-
947 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOOD SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STORM TIDE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL COLLIER, MAINLAND
MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE EFFECTS OF
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD METRO COLLIER COUNTY AND
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT. 
DESPITE THE FACT FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IT BECOMES A HURRICANE AND
SHOULD IT TRACK FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THANT FORECAST IT COULD BRING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. IF THIS POSSIBILITY WERE TO
MATERIALIZE, IT COULD HAPPEN ANYTIME TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AND
THEREFORE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR COASTAL
RESIDENTS OF CHOKOLOSKEE, HENDERSON CREEK, EVERGLADES CITY,
GOODLAND, MARCO ISLAND, GORDON RIVER, AND ANY OTHER EXPOSED LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF
MANUFACTURED HOMES. COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
WAS ANTICIPATING OPENING THREE SHELTERS AROUND 4 PM EDT EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WITHIN 20
NAUTICAL MILES OF NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND AS A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST WIND CONDITIONS AS THE STORM PASSES, STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE SABLE AND FLAMINGO AREAS OF
EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND 4 AM AND AGAIN AT 4 PM TUESDAY. A STORM TIDE OF UP TO
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE FROM CHOKOLOSKEE AND
EVERGLADES CITY WEST TO COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK, GOODLAND AND
MARCO ISLAND ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE IN THE 3 AM
TO 5 AM TIME PERIOD ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN AT THE SECOND
HIGH TIDE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS THREAT WILL BE
PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. WITH THESE CONDITIONS MINOR FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS LIKELY PARTICULARLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE AND WHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGEST.

HOWEVER, SHOULD THE STORM BE STRONGER OR MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, A STORM TIDE OF 6 TO 10 FEET AT ANY
GIVEN COASTAL LOCATION IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE
THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. A STORM TIDE OF 10 FEET WOULD MEAN THAT
MANY ROADWAYS COULD GO UNDERWATER INCLUDING PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI
TRAIL, STATE ROADS 951 AND 92 WHICH LINK MARCO ISLAND TO THE
MAINLAND AND STATE ROAD 29 WHICH LINKS CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES
CITY TO THE TAMIAMI TRAIL. COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK WOULD ALSO
HAVE SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING.

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN URGED BY COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT FOR MANY RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN COLLIER
COUNTY.

...WINDS...

WIND SPEEDS ACROSS METRO COLLIER COUNTY AT 8 PM RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH IN SOME PLACES, STILL WELL
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HOWEVER, FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, AT
FLAMINGO STATION, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTING
CLOSE TO 60 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 50 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS POSSIBLY
REACHING THE METRO COLLIER COASTLINE INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO
ISLAND, AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING RATHER WINDY STILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD
FAY TRACK RIGHT OF FORECAST OR END UP BEING STRONGER, CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH ARE STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY.

WINDS IN THIS SPEED RANGE ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES AND TRAILERS, PORCHES, CARPORTS, AWNINGS,
POOL ENCLOSURES AND WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES, BUT SHALLOW ROOTED OR DISEASED TREES
COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS ARE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND
BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. THESE WINDS AREA ALSO DANGEROUS ON
BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE
TRUCKS AND BUSES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WHERE POWER LINES ARE EXPOSED ABOVE GROUND.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN SO FAR IN THE NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND
AREAS WITH RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY AREA SO FAR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL
CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES
AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN
PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN
ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN
UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-190630-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 
20 TO 60 NM-
947 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE
TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 60 NM, COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE
TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WITH A HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT, MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS AS THE SPIRAL BANDS FROM FAY ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS BETTER THAN AN 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS
OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS, WITH FAY. THERE IS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING HURRICANE
CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS, AND A GUST TO 50
KNOTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42 KNOTS WAS REPORTED AT 903 PM EDT
AT FLAMINGO. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 64
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE LIKELY FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND FROM 7 TO 10 FEET
NEARSHORE, BECOMING EXTREMELY ROUGH AND CONFUSED. SURF ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND
DANGEROUS TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, AS WINDS INCREASE.
MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN SAFE PORT. BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS FAY
PASSES BY THE AREA AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

FLZ168-172>174-190630-
/O.COR.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
947 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

PREPAREDNESS INFO CORRECTED.
WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL BROWARD, COASTAL MIAMI
DADE, COASTAL PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST WHERE A HURRICANE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THREE SHELTERS FOR PERSONS WISHING TO
EVACUATE FROM MOBILE HOMES OR HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE NOW
OPEN FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY RESIDENTS.

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS THAT LIVE
IN MOBILE HOME AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING IS IN PLACE.
ONE RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER IS OPEN AT ARTHUR ASHE MIDDLE
SCHOOL, 1701 NW. 23 AVENUE, FORT LAUDERDALE AND A PET FRIENDLY
SHELTER AT MILLENNIUM MIDDLE SCHOOL, 5803 NW 94 AVENUE, TAMARAC. IF
YOU PLAN TO GO TO THE PET FRIENDLY SHELTER YOU MUST BRING PROOF OF
PET VACCINATION, PET LICENSE AND ANY SPECIAL MEDICATIONS OR FOOD
REQUIRED. ONE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER IS OPENED FOR
RESIDENTS THAT HAVE A MEDICAL CONDITION THAT REQUIRES A GREATER
LEVEL OF CARE THAN THAT PROVIDED AT A RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER,
BUT DOES NOT REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION. IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY
PREREGISTERED FOR THE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER YOU CAN CALL
3 1 1 FOR ASSISTANCE. THREE BRIDGES OPERATED BY THE BROWARD COUNTY
HIGHWAY AND BRIDGE MAINTENANCE DIVISION ARE CLOSED, LOCKED IN THE
DOWN POSITION. THEY ARE THE ANDREWS AVENUE BRIDGE, 3RD AVENUE
BRIDGE AND THE SW4/7 AVENUE BRIDGE IN DOWNTOWN FORT LAUDERDALE.
THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS NOT ANNOUNCED CLOSURE
OF BRIDGES THAT THEY OPERATE IN BROWARD COUNTY.

PALM BEACH COUNTY HAS OPENED A SHELTER AT LAKES SHORE MIDDLE
SCHOOL IN THE BELLE GLADES AREA. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. WATER LEVELS OF 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11
PM TONIGHT AND 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

...WINDS...

ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM PALM BEACH TO COASTAL MIAMI DADE ON
THE ATLANTIC SIDE, PEAK WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
HAVE BEEN RANGING IN THE 45 TO 60 MPH RANGE MAINLY ALONG COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN MIAMI DADE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE
LATEST FORECAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SHOULD FAY
TRACK EAST OF THE FORECAST AND SHOULD IT BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST, STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME BEGINNING
TONIGHT. THEREFORE, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN
EFFECT.

FOR FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE ADJACENT TO FLORIDA BAY, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IF
THE STORM TRACKS RIGHT OF TRACK AND INTENSIFIES FURTHER THAT WINDS
COULD END UP BEING STRONGER.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM
BEACH AREAS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR SOUTH MIAMI-
DADE COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR
SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR WINDS
OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

THROUGH THIS EVENING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAVE
BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST LOCAL AMOUNTS
OBSERVED SO FAR AROUND NORTHEAST BROWARD AND SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH
COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL
CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES
AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN
PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN
ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN
UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY 
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-190630-
/O.COR.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T1200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
947 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

CORRECTED INFORMATION ON SHELTERS.
PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION UPDATED.
WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED. 
INLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND
BROWARD, INLAND COLLIER, INLAND MIAMI DADE, INLAND PALM
BEACH, METRO BROWARD, METRO MIAMI DADE, METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. SPIRAL BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY
ARE MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA NOW PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR RESIDENTS
OF MOBILE HOMES OR LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED AREAS TO FIND SHELTER
WITH FRIENDS OR RELATIVES IN BETTER BUILT OR PROTECTED STRUCTURES.

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS THAT LIVE
IN MOBILE HOME AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING IS IN PLACE.
ONE RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER IS OPEN AT ARTHUR ASHE MIDDLE
SCHOOL, 1701 NW. 23 AVENUE, FORT LAUDERDALE AND A PET FRIENDLY
SHELTER AT MILLENNIUM MIDDLE SCHOOL, 5803 NW 94 AVENUE, TAMARAC. IF
YOU PLAN TO GO TO THE PET FRIENDLY SHELTER YOU MUST BRING PROOF OF
PET VACCINATION, PET LICENSE AND ANY SPECIAL MEDICATIONS OR FOOD
REQUIRED. ONE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER IS OPENED FOR
RESIDENTS THAT HAVE A MEDICAL CONDITION THAT REQUIRES A GREATER
LEVEL OF CARE THAN THAT PROVIDED AT A RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER,
BUT DOES NOT REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION. IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY
PREREGISTERED FOR THE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER YOU CAN CALL
3 1 1 FOR ASSISTANCE. THREE BRIDGES OPERATED BY THE BROWARD COUNTY
HIGHWAY AND BRIDGE MAINTENANCE DIVISION ARE CLOSED, LOCKED IN THE
DOWN POSITION. THEY ARE THE ANDREWS AVENUE BRIDGE, 3RD AVENUE
BRIDGE AND THE SW4/7 AVENUE BRIDGE IN DOWNTOWN FORT LAUDERDALE.
THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS NOT ANNOUNCED CLOSURE
OF BRIDGES THAT THEY OPERATE IN BROWARD COUNTY.

PALM BEACH COUNTY HAS OPENED A SHELTER AT LAKES SHORE MIDDLE
SCHOOL IN THE BELLE GLADES AREA. HENDRY COUNTY HAS ALSO OPENED A
SHELTER IN LA BELLE. GLADES COUNTY HAS ALSO OPENED A SHELTER AT
WEST GLADES ELEMENTARY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. WATER LEVELS OF 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, WATER LEVELS 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11
PM TONIGHT AND 10 TO 11 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM
THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY, AND CLEWISTON
AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE
WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON
THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...WINDS...

WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMINDER OF THE AREA GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT. ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE COASTS WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 10 TO 20
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SQUALLS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, IF FAY
MOVES ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA DIRECTLY, WINDS WOULD BE
HIGHER WITH GUSTS TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR EVEN HURRICANE
FORCE STILL POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY.

UNDER THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR INLAND COLLIER, GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES, WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM JUST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO CARPORTS, AWNINGS, AND POOL
ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS
IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES INLAND. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE
CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

THERE IS ABOUT 80 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND COLLIER, HENDRY, AND GLADES COUNTY AREAS
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS ABOUT A 5 TO
10 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE FALLEN SO FAR TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST BROWARD AND SOUTHEAST
PALM BEACH COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS
RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL
RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE
ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE
SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS
QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-190630-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
947 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: BISCAYNE BAY, LAKE OKEECHOBEE,
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NAUTICAL
MILES. 

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL PRECAUTIONS FOR FAY.
MARINE CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 35 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE
IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE IS ABOUT A 4 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...

THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WILL BE IN A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING
WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. A TORNADO
WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

A PEAK WIND GUST TO 44 KNOTS WAS REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT
AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BROWARD COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. IF FAY MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA, SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLY
MINOR BEACH EROSION. THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST PARTICULARLY THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
RANGE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BECOMING 30 TO 35 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING LIKE SO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY THE EVENING. PEAK WINDS WITH THE EVENT IN
THE CURRENT SCENARIO COULD POSSIBLY REACH 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS IN SQUALLS DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF
THE LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS
FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER
THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY AND CLEWISTON AREAS.
IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER
LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE
DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

000
WTUS82 KMFL 190506
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
106 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUE IN EFFECT...

.AT 1100 PM EDT, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF
NAPLES FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH AND A SLIGHTLY EAST OF
NORTH MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY
COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE FAY MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FLZ069-075-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-
106 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
INLAND FLOOD SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
STORM TIDE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL COLLIER, MAINLAND
MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE EFFECTS OF
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE SHOULD BE COMPLETED. UNDER THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, TROPICAL STORM FAY WOULD MAKE LAND FALL JUST NORTH
OF NAPLES AROUND 4 AM AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS NOW SPREADING NORTH UP THE FLORIDA SOUTHWEST COAST TOWARD
METRO COLLIER COUNTY AND EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK. DESPITE THE
FACT FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IT BECOMES A HURRICANE BEFORE LAND FALL. IF
THIS POSSIBILITY MATERIALIZES, IT COULD HAPPEN ANYTIME DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR COASTAL
RESIDENTS OF CHOKOLOSKEE, HENDERSON CREEK, EVERGLADES CITY,
GOODLAND, MARCO ISLAND, GORDON RIVER, AND ANY OTHER EXPOSED LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF MANUFACTURED
HOMES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND OR NORTH OF
NAPLES AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND
CONDITIONS AS THE STORM PASSES, STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE SABLE AND FLAMINGO AREAS OF EVERGLADES
NATIONAL PARK PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 4
AM. A STORM TIDE OF UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY
COASTLINE FROM CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY WEST TO COLLIER
SEMINOLE STATE PARK, GOODLAND AND MARCO ISLAND ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE IN THE 3 AM TO 5 AM TIME PERIOD ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, THIS THREAT WILL STILL BE PRESENT ALTHOUGH TO A LESSER
DEGREE ACROSS THESE AREA LATER DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONG AND BEFORE THE WIND BEGINS TO SUBSIDE BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE CONDITIONS MINOR
FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS LIKELY
PARTICULARLY AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AND WHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW
IS STRONGEST.

HOWEVER, SHOULD THE STORM BE STRONGER AND ITS TRACK CHANGE, A
STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 10 FEET AT ANY GIVEN COASTAL LOCATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL. A STORM TIDE OF 10 FEET WOULD MEAN THAT MANY ROADWAYS
COULD GO UNDERWATER INCLUDING PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL, STATE
ROADS 951 AND 92 WHICH LINK MARCO ISLAND TO THE MAINLAND AND STATE
ROAD 29 WHICH LINKS CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY TO THE TAMIAMI
TRAIL. COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK WOULD ALSO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
STORM SURGE FLOODING. 

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN URGED BY COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT FOR MANY RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN COLLIER
COUNTY.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF
NAPLES AROUND 4 AM TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS METRO COLLIER
COUNTY AT 11 PM RANGED FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH IN SOME PLACES, STILL BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HOWEVER,
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, AT FLAMINGO STATION, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTING 55 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS POSSIBLY REACHING THE METRO COLLIER
COASTLINE INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO ISLAND, DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
RATHER WINDY STILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD FAY END UP
BEING STRONGER, CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 74 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING AND MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY.
THE EXACT LOCATIONS THAT WOULD END UP EXPERIENCING THE HIGHEST
WINDS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF WHERE FAY ENDS UP LAND FALLING
WITH WORST CONDITIONS ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE ULTIMATE LAND
FALL POINT.

WINDS IN THIS SPEED RANGE ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES AND TRAILERS, PORCHES, CARPORTS, AWNINGS,
POOL ENCLOSURES AND WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES, BUT SHALLOW ROOTED OR DISEASED TREES
COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS ARE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND
BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. THESE WINDS AREA ALSO DANGEROUS ON
BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE
TRUCKS AND BUSES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WHERE POWER LINES ARE EXPOSED ABOVE GROUND.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR SINCE MONDAY ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER ARE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCHES RANGE AND HIGHER ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE EVENT IS OVER WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL
CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES
AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN
PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN
ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN
AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN
UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY ABOUT GETTING CLOSE TO LAND FALL, THE RISK
OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY THAN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OCCURS. THEREFORE, A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 
20 TO 60 NM-
106 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE
TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 60 NM, COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE
TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA: HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WITH A HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT, MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS AS THE SPIRAL BANDS FROM FAY ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS BETTER THAN AN 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS
OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS, WITH FAY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER.

...TORNADOES...

WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY ABOUT GETTING CLOSE TO LAND FALL, THE RISK
OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE,
TORNADO WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA AS TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES ACROSS THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS ABOVE 50 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT FLAMINGO STATION
ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE SOUTHWEST COAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING IF
THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET
OFFSHORE AND FROM 7 TO 10 FEET NEARSHORE, BECOMING EXTREMELY ROUGH
AND CONFUSED. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS THIS MORNING, AND ESPECIALLY ON
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE. MARINERS SHOULD
STAY IN SAFE PORT. BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS FAY PASSES BY THE
AREA AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY.

$$

FLZ168-172>174-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
106 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED. 
INLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO SECTION UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL BROWARD, COASTAL MIAMI
DADE, COASTAL PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST WHERE A HURRICANE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THREE SHELTERS FOR PERSONS WISHING TO
EVACUATE FROM MOBILE HOMES OR HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE NOW
OPEN FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY RESIDENTS.

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS THAT LIVE
IN MOBILE HOME AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING IS IN PLACE.
ONE RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER IS OPEN AT ARTHUR ASHE MIDDLE
SCHOOL, 1701 NW. 23 AVENUE, FORT LAUDERDALE AND A PET FRIENDLY
SHELTER AT MILLENNIUM MIDDLE SCHOOL, 5803 NW 94 AVENUE, TAMARAC. IF
YOU PLAN TO GO TO THE PET FRIENDLY SHELTER YOU MUST BRING PROOF OF
PET VACCINATION, PET LICENSE AND ANY SPECIAL MEDICATIONS OR FOOD
REQUIRED. ONE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER IS OPENED FOR
RESIDENTS THAT HAVE A MEDICAL CONDITION THAT REQUIRES A GREATER
LEVEL OF CARE THAN THAT PROVIDED AT A RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER,
BUT DOES NOT REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION. IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY
PREREGISTERED FOR THE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER YOU CAN CALL
3 1 1 FOR ASSISTANCE. THREE BRIDGES OPERATED BY THE BROWARD COUNTY
HIGHWAY AND BRIDGE MAINTENANCE DIVISION ARE CLOSED, LOCKED IN THE
DOWN POSITION. THEY ARE THE ANDREWS AVENUE BRIDGE, 3RD AVENUE
BRIDGE AND THE SW4/7 AVENUE BRIDGE IN DOWNTOWN FORT LAUDERDALE.
THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS NOT ANNOUNCED CLOSURE
OF BRIDGES THAT THEY OPERATE IN BROWARD COUNTY.

PALM BEACH COUNTY HAS OPENED A SHELTER AT LAKES SHORE MIDDLE
SCHOOL IN THE BELLE GLADES AREA. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. WATER
LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE LAND FALL, WATER
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM
TUESDAY.

...WINDS...

ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM PALM BEACH TO COASTAL MIAMI DADE ON
THE ATLANTIC SIDE, SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE MIAMI DADE COAST. PEAK WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD HAVE BEEN RANGING IN
THE 55 TO 60 MPH RANGE MAINLY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS IN MIAMI
DADE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
LATEST FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SHOULD FAY BE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST, STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME
DURING ITS PASSAGE. THEREFORE, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN
EFFECT.

FOR FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE ADJACENT TO FLORIDA BAY, WINDS OF 35 TO
45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IF THE STORM TRACKS
RIGHT OF TRACK AND INTENSIFIES FURTHER THAT WINDS COULD END UP
BEING STRONGER.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM
BEACH AREAS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE MIAMI DADE AREA. THERE IS A
LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE
LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR SOUTH MIAMI-
DADE COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR
SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR WINDS
OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

THROUGH THIS EVENING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAVE
BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OBSERVED AROUND SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY,
SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND METRO BROWARD, AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY OVER THE EVERGLADES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT IS A
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN
BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T1200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
106 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED. 
INLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO SECTION UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND
BROWARD, INLAND COLLIER, INLAND MIAMI DADE, INLAND PALM
BEACH, METRO BROWARD, METRO MIAMI DADE, METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. SPIRAL BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY
ARE MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA NOW PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. 

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS THAT LIVE
IN MOBILE HOME AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING IS IN PLACE.
ONE RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER IS OPEN AT ARTHUR ASHE MIDDLE
SCHOOL, 1701 NW. 23 AVENUE, FORT LAUDERDALE AND A PET FRIENDLY
SHELTER AT MILLENNIUM MIDDLE SCHOOL, 5803 NW 94 AVENUE, TAMARAC. IF
YOU PLAN TO GO TO THE PET FRIENDLY SHELTER YOU MUST BRING PROOF OF
PET VACCINATION, PET LICENSE AND ANY SPECIAL MEDICATIONS OR FOOD
REQUIRED. ONE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER IS OPENED FOR
RESIDENTS THAT HAVE A MEDICAL CONDITION THAT REQUIRES A GREATER
LEVEL OF CARE THAN THAT PROVIDED AT A RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER,
BUT DOES NOT REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION. IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY
PREREGISTERED FOR THE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER YOU CAN CALL
3 1 1 FOR ASSISTANCE. THREE BRIDGES OPERATED BY THE BROWARD COUNTY
HIGHWAY AND BRIDGE MAINTENANCE DIVISION ARE CLOSED, LOCKED IN THE
DOWN POSITION. THEY ARE THE ANDREWS AVENUE BRIDGE, 3RD AVENUE
BRIDGE AND THE SW4/7 AVENUE BRIDGE IN DOWNTOWN FORT LAUDERDALE.
THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS NOT ANNOUNCED CLOSURE
OF BRIDGES THAT THEY OPERATE IN BROWARD COUNTY.

PALM BEACH COUNTY HAS OPENED A SHELTER AT LAKES SHORE MIDDLE
SCHOOL IN THE BELLE GLADES AREA. HENDRY COUNTY HAS ALSO OPENED A
SHELTER IN LA BELLE. GLADES COUNTY HAS ALSO OPENED A SHELTER AT
WEST GLADES ELEMENTARY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. WATER
LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE LAND FALL, WATER
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM
TUESDAY.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE
NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM
CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT,
WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE,
SOUTH BAY, AND CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR
EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL
FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE
WIND.

...WINDS...

WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMINDER OF THE AREA GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE COASTS WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
SQUALLS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, IF FAY
IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST, WINDS WOULD BE HIGHER WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR EVEN HURRICANE FORCE STILL POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY.

UNDER THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR INLAND COLLIER, GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES, WINDS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE
FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE TUESDAY BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
FARTHER INLAND AND CLOSER TO WHERE THE CENTER MOVES WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO CARPORTS, AWNINGS, AND POOL
ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS
IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT 70 TO 90 PERCENT OR HIGHER CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES INLAND. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF
HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A 80 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN
THE INLAND COLLIER, HENDRY, AND GLADES COUNTY AREAS WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

THROUGH THIS EVENING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAVE
BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OBSERVED AROUND SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY,
SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND METRO BROWARD, AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY OVER THE EVERGLADES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT IS A
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN
BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY.

$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
106 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO IMPACT UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: BISCAYNE BAY, LAKE OKEECHOBEE,
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NAUTICAL
MILES. 

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL PRECAUTIONS FOR FAY.
MARINE CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 35 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE
IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...

SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT
OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT
IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO
PRODUCING RAIN BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS
LIGHT EARLIER MONDAY EVENING. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40
KNOTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BROWARD COUNTY
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IF FAY
INTENSIFIES BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL, SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ANY
TIME TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. SEAS WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 7 TO 9 FEET AND POSSIBLY 10 TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLY MINOR BEACH EROSION.
THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOTS RANGE GUSTING WELL INTO THE 30S OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BECOMING 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, AND POSSIBLY AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO HURRICANE
FORCE IN THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SINCE FAY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH
SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL
POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE
BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH
BAY AND CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE
DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 3 AM TUESDAY.

$$

000
WTUS82 KMFL 190701
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
301 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUE IN EFFECT...

.AT 200 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH
OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. A MOTION JUST EAST OF
DUE NORTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL WITH A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY
COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE FAY MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FLZ069-075-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-
301 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

PREPAREDNESS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 
INLAND FLOOD SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL COLLIER, MAINLAND
MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE EFFECTS OF
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE SHOULD BE COMPLETED. UNDER THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, TROPICAL STORM FAY WOULD MAKE LAND FALL AROUND
NAPLES SOMETIME AROUND SUNRISE AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW SPREADING NORTH UP THE FLORIDA
SOUTHWEST COAST TOWARD METRO COLLIER COUNTY AND EVERGLADES
NATIONAL PARK. DESPITE THE FACT FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM, THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT IT BECOMES A
HURRICANE BEFORE LAND FALL. IF THIS POSSIBILITY MATERIALIZES, IT
COULD HAPPEN ANYTIME BEFORE LAND FALL. THEREFORE A HURRICANE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE TIME FOR VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR COASTAL
RESIDENTS OF CHOKOLOSKEE, HENDERSON CREEK, EVERGLADES CITY,
GOODLAND, MARCO ISLAND, GORDON RIVER, AND ANY OTHER EXPOSED LOW
LYING COASTAL AREAS. THIS ALSO APPLIES TO RESIDENTS OF MANUFACTURED
HOMES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF FAY IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND NAPLES AS A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN THE FORECAST WIND CONDITIONS AS THE
STORM PASSES, STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
CAPE SABLE AND FLAMINGO AREAS OF EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK
PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 4 AM. A STORM
TIDE OF UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY WEST TO COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE
PARK, GOODLAND AND MARCO ISLAND ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE IN THE 3 AM TO 5 AM TIME PERIOD ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS
THREAT WILL STILL BE PRESENT ALTHOUGH TO A LESSER DEGREE ACROSS
THESE AREA LATER DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW
REMAINS STRONG AND BEFORE THE WIND BEGINS TO SUBSIDE BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THESE CONDITIONS MINOR FLOODING
OF COASTAL ROADS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS LIKELY PARTICULARLY
AT THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AND WHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGEST.

HOWEVER, SHOULD THE STORM BE STRONGER AND ITS TRACK CHANGE, A
STORM TIDE OF 7 TO 10 FEET AT ANY GIVEN COASTAL LOCATION IS
STILL POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL. A STORM TIDE OF 10 FEET WOULD MEAN THAT MANY ROADWAYS
COULD GO UNDERWATER INCLUDING PARTS OF THE TAMIAMI TRAIL, STATE
ROADS 951 AND 92 WHICH LINK MARCO ISLAND TO THE MAINLAND AND STATE
ROAD 29 WHICH LINKS CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY TO THE TAMIAMI
TRAIL. COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK WOULD ALSO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
STORM SURGE FLOODING. 

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN URGED BY COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT FOR MANY RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN COLLIER
COUNTY.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND NAPLES
AROUND SOMETIME AROUND SUNRISE. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS METRO COLLIER COUNTY
AT 2 AM RANGED FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH IN
SOME PLACES, STILL BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HOWEVER, FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTING ABOVE
50 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 50 TO
60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS POSSIBLE
REACHING THE METRO COLLIER COASTLINE INCLUDING NAPLES AND MARCO
ISLAND, DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING RATHER WINDY STILL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SHOULD FAY END UP BEING STRONGER, CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING AND MAINLY
ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY. THE EXACT LOCATIONS THAT WOULD END
UP EXPERIENCING THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF WHERE
FAY ENDS UP LAND FALLING WITH WORST CONDITIONS ALONG AND TO THE
RIGHT OF THE ULTIMATE LAND FALL POINT.

WINDS IN THIS SPEED RANGE ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES AND TRAILERS, PORCHES, CARPORTS, AWNINGS,
POOL ENCLOSURES AND WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES, BUT SHALLOW ROOTED OR DISEASED TREES
COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS ARE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND
BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. THESE WINDS AREA ALSO DANGEROUS ON
BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE
TRUCKS AND BUSES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WHERE POWER LINES ARE EXPOSED ABOVE GROUND.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR SINCE MONDAY ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER ARE IN
THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES AND
HIGHER ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AND SOME SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN
COLLIER COUNTY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE EVENT IS OVER WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12
INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS
RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL
RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE
ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE
SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY ABOUT GETTING CLOSE TO LAND FALL, THE RISK
OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY THAN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OCCURS. THEREFORE, A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 AM TUESDAY.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 
20 TO 60 NM-
301 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE
TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 60 NM, COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE
TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA: HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WITH A HURRICANE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT, MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY
COMPLETED THEIR PREPARATIONS AS THE SPIRAL BANDS FROM FAY ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS BETTER THAN AN 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS
OF 34 TO 64 KNOTS, WITH FAY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS EXPERIENCING
HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR WINDS OF 64 KNOTS OR GREATER.

...TORNADOES...

WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY ABOUT GETTING CLOSE TO LAND FALL, THE RISK
OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE,
TORNADO WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA AS TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES ACROSS THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS ABOVE 50 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT FLAMINGO STATION
ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE SOUTHWEST COAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING IF
THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET
OFFSHORE AND FROM 7 TO 10 FEET NEARSHORE, BECOMING EXTREMELY ROUGH
AND CONFUSED. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS THIS MORNING, AND ESPECIALLY ON
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE. MARINERS SHOULD
STAY IN SAFE PORT. BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS FAY PASSES BY THE
AREA AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 4 AM TUESDAY.

$$

FLZ168-172>174-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
301 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED. 
INLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO SECTION UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL BROWARD, COASTAL MIAMI
DADE, COASTAL PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST WHERE A HURRICANE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THREE SHELTERS FOR PERSONS WISHING TO
EVACUATE FROM MOBILE HOMES OR HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE NOW
OPEN FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY RESIDENTS.

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS THAT LIVE
IN MOBILE HOME AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING IS IN PLACE.
ONE RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER IS OPEN AT ARTHUR ASHE MIDDLE
SCHOOL, 1701 NW. 23 AVENUE, FORT LAUDERDALE AND A PET FRIENDLY
SHELTER AT MILLENNIUM MIDDLE SCHOOL, 5803 NW 94 AVENUE, TAMARAC. IF
YOU PLAN TO GO TO THE PET FRIENDLY SHELTER YOU MUST BRING PROOF OF
PET VACCINATION, PET LICENSE AND ANY SPECIAL MEDICATIONS OR FOOD
REQUIRED. ONE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER IS OPENED FOR
RESIDENTS THAT HAVE A MEDICAL CONDITION THAT REQUIRES A GREATER
LEVEL OF CARE THAN THAT PROVIDED AT A RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER,
BUT DOES NOT REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION. IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY
PREREGISTERED FOR THE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER YOU CAN CALL
3 1 1 FOR ASSISTANCE. THREE BRIDGES OPERATED BY THE BROWARD COUNTY
HIGHWAY AND BRIDGE MAINTENANCE DIVISION ARE CLOSED, LOCKED IN THE
DOWN POSITION. THEY ARE THE ANDREWS AVENUE BRIDGE, 3RD AVENUE
BRIDGE AND THE SW4/7 AVENUE BRIDGE IN DOWNTOWN FORT LAUDERDALE.
THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS NOT ANNOUNCED CLOSURE
OF BRIDGES THAT THEY OPERATE IN BROWARD COUNTY.

PALM BEACH COUNTY HAS OPENED A SHELTER AT LAKES SHORE MIDDLE
SCHOOL IN THE BELLE GLADES AREA. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. WATER
LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE LAND FALL, WATER
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM
TUESDAY.

...WINDS...

ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM PALM BEACH TO COASTAL MIAMI DADE ON
THE ATLANTIC SIDE, SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE MIAMI DADE COAST. PEAK WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD HAVE BEEN RANGING IN
THE 55 TO 60 MPH RANGE MAINLY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS IN MIAMI
DADE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
LATEST FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SHOULD FAY BE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST, STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME
DURING ITS PASSAGE. THEREFORE, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN
EFFECT.

FOR FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE ADJACENT TO FLORIDA BAY, WINDS OF 35 TO
45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IF THE STORM TRACKS
RIGHT OF TRACK AND INTENSIFIES FURTHER THAT WINDS COULD END UP
BEING STRONGER.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE METRO MIAMI, FORT LAUDERDALE, AND WEST PALM
BEACH AREAS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE MIAMI DADE AREA. THERE IS A
LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE
LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR SOUTH MIAMI-
DADE COAST EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 39 TO
73 MPH, WITH FAY. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE FAR
SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COAST EXPERIENCING HURRICANE CONDITIONS, OR WINDS
OF 74 MPH OR GREATER.

...INLAND FLOODING...

THROUGH THIS EVENING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAVE
BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OBSERVED AROUND SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY,
SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND METRO BROWARD, AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY OVER THE EVERGLADES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT IS A
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN
BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 4 AM TUESDAY.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T1200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
301 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED. 
INLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO SECTION UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND
BROWARD, INLAND COLLIER, INLAND MIAMI DADE, INLAND PALM
BEACH, METRO BROWARD, METRO MIAMI DADE, METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. SPIRAL BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY
ARE MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA NOW PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. 

IN BROWARD COUNTY, A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR RESIDENTS THAT LIVE
IN MOBILE HOME AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING IS IN PLACE.
ONE RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER IS OPEN AT ARTHUR ASHE MIDDLE
SCHOOL, 1701 NW. 23 AVENUE, FORT LAUDERDALE AND A PET FRIENDLY
SHELTER AT MILLENNIUM MIDDLE SCHOOL, 5803 NW 94 AVENUE, TAMARAC. IF
YOU PLAN TO GO TO THE PET FRIENDLY SHELTER YOU MUST BRING PROOF OF
PET VACCINATION, PET LICENSE AND ANY SPECIAL MEDICATIONS OR FOOD
REQUIRED. ONE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER IS OPENED FOR
RESIDENTS THAT HAVE A MEDICAL CONDITION THAT REQUIRES A GREATER
LEVEL OF CARE THAN THAT PROVIDED AT A RED CROSS MASS CARE SHELTER,
BUT DOES NOT REQUIRE HOSPITALIZATION. IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY
PREREGISTERED FOR THE SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS SHELTER YOU CAN CALL
3 1 1 FOR ASSISTANCE. THREE BRIDGES OPERATED BY THE BROWARD COUNTY
HIGHWAY AND BRIDGE MAINTENANCE DIVISION ARE CLOSED, LOCKED IN THE
DOWN POSITION. THEY ARE THE ANDREWS AVENUE BRIDGE, 3RD AVENUE
BRIDGE AND THE SW4/7 AVENUE BRIDGE IN DOWNTOWN FORT LAUDERDALE.
THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION HAS NOT ANNOUNCED CLOSURE
OF BRIDGES THAT THEY OPERATE IN BROWARD COUNTY.

PALM BEACH COUNTY HAS OPENED A SHELTER AT LAKES SHORE MIDDLE
SCHOOL IN THE BELLE GLADES AREA. HENDRY COUNTY HAS ALSO OPENED A
SHELTER IN LA BELLE. GLADES COUNTY HAS ALSO OPENED A SHELTER AT
WEST GLADES ELEMENTARY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. WATER
LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE LAND FALL, WATER
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM
TUESDAY.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE
NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM
CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT,
WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE,
SOUTH BAY, AND CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR
EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL
FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE
WIND.

...WINDS...

WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMINDER OF THE AREA GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE COASTS WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
SQUALLS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, IF FAY
IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST, WINDS WOULD BE HIGHER WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR EVEN HURRICANE FORCE STILL POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY.

UNDER THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR INLAND COLLIER, GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES, WINDS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE
FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE TUESDAY BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
FARTHER INLAND AND CLOSER TO WHERE THE CENTER MOVES WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO CARPORTS, AWNINGS, AND POOL
ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS
IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT 70 TO 90 PERCENT OR HIGHER CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES AREAS WITH THE
BEST CHANCES INLAND. THERE IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF
HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A 80 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN
THE INLAND COLLIER, HENDRY, AND GLADES COUNTY AREAS WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR WESTERN SECTIONS. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

...INLAND FLOODING...

THROUGH THIS EVENING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAVE
BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OBSERVED AROUND SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY,
SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND METRO BROWARD, AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY OVER THE EVERGLADES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT IS A
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN
BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 4 AM TUESDAY.

$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-191200-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
301 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO IMPACT UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: BISCAYNE BAY, LAKE OKEECHOBEE,
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NAUTICAL
MILES. 

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL PRECAUTIONS FOR FAY.
MARINE CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT THROUGH TUESDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

THERE IS ABOUT A 35 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THERE
IS A LESS THAN 3 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

THERE IS ABOUT A 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THERE IS A LESS THAN 5 PERCENT
CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

...TORNADOES...

SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT
OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THIS QUADRANT
IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO
PRODUCING RAIN BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS
LIGHT EARLIER MONDAY EVENING. SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40
KNOTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BROWARD COUNTY
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IF FAY
INTENSIFIES BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL, SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ANY
TIME TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. SEAS WILL BE AS HIGH
AS 7 TO 9 FEET AND POSSIBLY 10 TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLY MINOR BEACH EROSION.
THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOTS RANGE GUSTING WELL INTO THE 30S OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BECOMING 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, AND POSSIBLY AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO HURRICANE
FORCE IN THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SINCE FAY IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE LAKE, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH
SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL
POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE
BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH
BAY AND CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE
DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 4 AM TUESDAY.

$$

000
WTUS82 KMFL 190757
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
357 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUE IN EFFECT...

AT 200 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH
OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. A MOTION JUST EAST OF
DUE NORTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL WITH A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FAY
COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE FAY MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FLZ069-075-191030-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-
357 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

PREPAREDNESS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 
INLAND FLOOD SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL COLLIER, MAINLAND
MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE EFFECTS OF
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM FAY
WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN COLLIER COUNTY SOMETIME BEFORE 6 AM EDT AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH POSSIBLE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS WILL
BE SPREADING ACROSS THE METRO COLLIER COUNTY AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

THE CENTER OF FAY WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COLLIER COUNTY
COAST BEFORE 6 AM EDT. ONSHORE FLOW IN THE CAPE SABLE AND FLAMINGO
AREA WILL RESULT IN STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET PARTICULARLY
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 4 AM. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
THE WINDS ARE STILL OFFSHORE AT EVERGLADES CITY, MARCO ISLAND AND
NAPLES, BUT AS THE CENTER COMES ONSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
CHANGE. A STORM TIDE OF UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE
FROM CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY WEST TO COLLIER SEMINOLE
STATE PARK, GOODLAND AND MARCO ISLAND ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE AROUND 3 AM TO 5 AM. HOWEVER, THIS THREAT WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ALTHOUGH TO A LESSER DEGREE ACROSS THESE AREA LATER
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHILE THE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONG AND
BEFORE THE WIND BEGINS TO SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THESE CONDITIONS MINOR FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS LIKELY PARTICULARLY AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE AND WHEN THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STRONGEST.

A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION HAS BEEN URGED BY COLLIER COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT FOR MANY RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING COMMUNITIES IN COLLIER
COUNTY.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COLLIER COUNTY
COAST BEFORE 6 AM EDT. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS METRO COLLIER COUNTY AT
3 AM RANGED FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH IN SOME
PLACES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF UP TO
50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS
POSSIBLE REACHING THE METRO COLLIER COASTLINE INCLUDING NAPLES AND
MARCO ISLAND, DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING RATHER WINDY STILL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. 

WINDS IN THIS SPEED RANGE ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES AND TRAILERS, PORCHES, CARPORTS, AWNINGS,
POOL ENCLOSURES AND WITH SOME SHINGLES BLOWN FROM ROOFS. LARGE
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES, BUT SHALLOW ROOTED OR DISEASED TREES
COULD BE BLOWN DOWN. LOOSE OBJECTS ARE EASILY BLOWN ABOUT AND
BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. THESE WINDS AREA ALSO DANGEROUS ON
BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES LIKE
TRUCKS AND BUSES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WHERE POWER LINES ARE EXPOSED ABOVE GROUND.

...INLAND FLOODING...

RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR SINCE MONDAY ACROSS COASTAL COLLIER ARE IN
THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES AND
HIGHER ACROSS MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AND SOME SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN
COLLIER COUNTY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE EVENT IS OVER WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12
INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS
RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL
RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE
ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE
SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY ABOUT GETTING CLOSE TO LAND FALL, THE RISK
OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY THAN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OCCURS. THEREFORE, A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 AM TUESDAY.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-191030-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 
20 TO 60 NM-
357 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE
TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 60 NM, COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE
TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA: HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN SAFE PORT THROUGH TODAY.

...TORNADOES...

WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY ABOUT GETTING CLOSE TO LAND FALL, THE RISK
OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. THEREFORE,
TORNADO WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA AS TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVES ACROSS THE COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS ABOVE 50 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT FLAMINGO STATION
ALONG THE MAINLAND MONROE SOUTHWEST COAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING IF
THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET
OFFSHORE AND FROM 7 TO 10 FEET NEARSHORE, BECOMING EXTREMELY ROUGH
AND CONFUSED. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS THIS MORNING, AND ESPECIALLY ON
AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE. MARINERS SHOULD
STAY IN SAFE PORT. BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS FAY PASSES BY THE
AREA AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 AM TUESDAY.

$$

FLZ168-172>174-191030-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
357 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED. 
INLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO SECTION UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: COASTAL BROWARD, COASTAL MIAMI
DADE, COASTAL PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST WHERE A HURRICANE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THREE SHELTERS FOR PERSONS WISHING TO
EVACUATE FROM MOBILE HOMES OR HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS ARE NOW
OPEN FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY RESIDENTS.

OCCASIONAL BREAKS BETWEEN SQUALLS MAY BE USED FOR EMERGENCY
REPAIRS IF NECESSARY.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. WATER
LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE LAND FALL, WATER
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM
TUESDAY.

...WINDS...

ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA FROM PALM BEACH TO COASTAL MIAMI DADE ON
THE ATLANTIC SIDE, SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE MIAMI DADE COAST. PEAK WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD HAVE BEEN RANGING IN
THE 55 TO 60 MPH RANGE MAINLY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS IN MIAMI
DADE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
LATEST FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SHOULD FAY BE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST, STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME
DURING ITS PASSAGE. THEREFORE, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN
EFFECT.

FOR FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE ADJACENT TO FLORIDA BAY, WINDS OF 35 TO
45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. 

...INLAND FLOODING...

THROUGH THIS EVENING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAVE
BEEN IN THE 2 TO 4 INCHES RANGE WITH POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OBSERVED AROUND SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH COUNTY,
SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND METRO BROWARD, AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY OVER THE EVERGLADES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES WERE REPORTED WITH SOME DAMAGE IN THE WELLINGTON AREA OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY AROUND 130 TO 2 AM EDT. MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
REMAINS IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL
QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS OF
SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH,
THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN BANDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 AM TUESDAY.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-191030-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T1200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
357 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WINDS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED. 
INLAND FLOODING HAS BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO SECTION UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: GLADES, HENDRY, INLAND
BROWARD, INLAND COLLIER, INLAND MIAMI DADE, INLAND PALM
BEACH, METRO BROWARD, METRO MIAMI DADE, METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHERE A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. SPIRAL BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY
ARE MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA NOW PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS. 

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. WATER
LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DUE TO ONSHORE WIND FLOW TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD FAY BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE LAND FALL, WATER
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM
TUESDAY.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE
LAKE DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SHORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM
CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT,
WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE,
SOUTH BAY, AND CLEWISTON AREAS. IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR
EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL
FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE
WIND.

...WINDS...

WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH ARE NOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AND WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMINDER OF THE AREA GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AWAY FROM THE COASTS WIND SPEEDS ARE
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SQUALLS.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
SQUALLS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, IF FAY
IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST, WINDS WOULD BE HIGHER WITH GUSTS TO
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR EVEN HURRICANE FORCE STILL POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY.

UNDER THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR INLAND COLLIER, GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES, WINDS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE
FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS INLAND AND METRO MIAMI DADE, INLAND AND METRO
BROWARD, AND INLAND AND METRO PALM BEACH COUNTIES, WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE TUESDAY BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
FARTHER INLAND AND CLOSER TO WHERE THE CENTER MOVES WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS GUSTING TO HURRICANE FORCE WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO CARPORTS, AWNINGS, AND POOL
ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL
BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS
IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...INLAND FLOODING...

LOCAL RAINFALL REPORTS AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
RECEIVED IN PARTS OF CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH 3 TO 5 INCH
REPORTS COMMON ELSEWHERE. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS
HIGH AS 12 INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL
BANDS OCCURS. THIS RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS
PONDING OF RAINFALL RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS
DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS
SETS UP ACROSS THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD
NEVER DRIVE ACROSS WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT
DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES WERE REPORTED IN THE WELLINGTON AREA OF METRO PALM BEACH
COUNTY BETWEEN 130 AND 2 AM WITH SOME DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS. MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY FOR MOST
OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS QUADRANT IS A FAVORED LOCATION
FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SPIRAL BANDS
OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN BANDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 AM TUESDAY.

$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-191030-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
357 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
MARINE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
TORNADO IMPACT UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS: BISCAYNE BAY, LAKE OKEECHOBEE,
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET OUT 60 NAUTICAL
MILES. 

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED ALL PRECAUTIONS FOR FAY.
MARINE CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT THROUGH TUESDAY.

...TORNADOES...

SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT
OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS QUADRANT IS A
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN
BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT FOWEY ROCKS
LIGHT ON MONDAY, BUT SINCE 2 AM MOST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN
40 AND 50 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 KNOTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE BROWARD COUNTY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. IF FAY INTENSIFIES BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL,
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE
IN SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE ANY TIME TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE. SEAS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 7 TO 9 FEET AND POSSIBLY 10 TO 12
FEET OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND
POSSIBLY MINOR BEACH EROSION. THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST
PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WINDS HAVE BEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE GUSTING
TO 35 KNOTS SINCE 2 AM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BECOMING 30
TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND POSSIBLY AROUND 50 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS CLOSE TO HURRICANE FORCE IN THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE LAKE,
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BLOWING LAKE WATERS FROM THE
SOUTH SHORE TOWARD THE NORTH SHORE, RESULTING IN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LAKE LEVELS FROM CANAL POINT NORTH TO THE TOWN OF
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST TO LAKEPORT, WHILE BELOW NORMAL LAKE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BELLE GLADE, SOUTH BAY AND CLEWISTON AREAS.
IF FAY PASSES DIRECTLY OVER OR EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, THE WATER
LEVELS IN THE LAKE WILL FLUCTUATE DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE
DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 6 AM TUESDAY.

$$

000
WTUS82 KMFL 191002
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
602 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...FAY MAKES LANDFALL IN COLLIER COUNTY, MOVING INLAND...

.AT 6 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED OVER
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY JUST EAST OF NAPLES. THIS LOCATION WAS
CLOSE TO GOLDEN GATE OR ABOUT 85 MILES WEST OF MIAMI.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, TAKING THE CENTER OF FAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS FAY MOVES INLAND.


FLZ069-075-191545-
/O.CAN.KMFL.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-
602 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WARNINGS UPDATED
LOCATION UPDATED
STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE UPDATED
CURRENT REPORTS INCLUDED

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	COASTAL COLLIER...MAINLAND MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVELING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THIS MORNING ACROSS METRO
COLLIER COUNTY AS FAY MOVES INLAND. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, IF A GENERATOR IS USED MAKE SURE IT
HAS ADEQUATE VENTILATION TO PREVENT CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING.
STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

NOW THAT TROPICAL STORM FAY IS ONSHORE NEAR MARCO ISLAND, THE WIND
IS BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE AREAS.
THIS SHOULD PUSH A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL
ONTO THE MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY WEST TO COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE
PARK, GOODLAND AND MARCO ISLAND. HIGH TIDE WAS AROUND 4 AM BUT THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MINOR FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS LIKELY. ANOTHER HIGH TIDE OCCURS AROUND 4 TO
5 PM TODAY, AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM FAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES THEN ALSO.

AT NAPLES, THE FLOW IS STILL OFFSHORE AND TIDES ARE STILL NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS. AS FAY MOVES INLAND, THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
CHANGE AND BECOME ONSHORE. HIGH TIDE AROUND 3 PM TODAY WILL
LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONSHORE FLOW FROM FAY.

...WINDS...

THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
FAY ARE OCCURRING IN COLLIER COUNTY, WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 47 MPH
GUSTING TO 69 MPH REPORTED AT EVERGLADES CITY AT 5 AM. AT NAPLES,
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 32 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH WERE REPORTED AT 5 AM.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 60 TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING AS FAY MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH METRO COLLIER COUNTY. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

...INLAND FLOODING...

TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY
AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT RAIN
GAGES IN COLLIER COUNTY ARE REPORTING WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY, INCLUDING NEARLY 6 INCHES AT ROOKERY
BAY PRESERVE AND NEARLY 5 INCHES AT COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK
AND COWBELL STRAND. GRAND TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY FROM FAY, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS
12 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS
RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL
RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE
ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE
SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.


...TORNADOES...

WITH FAY NOW ON THE COAST, THE RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
THAN AN ISOLATED TORNADO OCCURS. THEREFORE, A TORNADO WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 AM EDT.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-191545-
/O.CAN.KMFL.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 
20 TO 60 NM-
602 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED
TIMING AND REPORTS UPDATED
MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM...
	COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 
	NM...GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING 
	FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
	HURRICANE WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINE CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT ALL DAY TODAY.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS AS HIGH AS HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE.

...TORNADOES...

WITH FAY NOW ON THE COAST, THE RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
THAN AN ISOLATED TORNADO OCCURS. THEREFORE, A TORNADO WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS
OF 41 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT
EVERGLADES CITY AT 5 AM. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE EXTREMELY ROUGH AND CONFUSED, IN
EXCESS OF 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND FROM 7 TO 10 FEET NEARSHORE. SURF
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE ROUGH AND
DANGEROUS THIS MORNING, AND ESPECIALLY ON AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE. MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN SAFE PORT. BEACH
EROSION IS LIKELY AS FAY PASSES BY THE AREA AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 AM EDT.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-191545-
/O.EXT.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
602 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED
TIMING AND EFFECTS UPDATED
PREPARATION UPDATED
REAL TIME REPORTS UPDATED

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND BROWARD...INLAND COLLIER...INLAND 
	MIAMI DADE...INLAND PALM BEACH...METRO BROWARD...METRO MIAMI 
	DADE...METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM FAY IS ONSHORE
IN COLLIER COUNTY AND WILL BE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION LATER TODAY. TRAVELING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED
TODAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. STAY AWAY FROM
DOWNED POWER LINES. IF POWER OUTAGES OCCUR AND A GENERATOR IS
USED, ENSURE ADEQUATE VENTILATION TO PREVENT CARBON MONOXIDE
POISONING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

CURRENT TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WATER
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WILL BE CAUSING ABOVE NORMAL LAKE LEVELS ON THE
WESTERN SHORE. FAY IS FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE LAKE
TODAY, CAUSING THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE TO FLUCTUATE
DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...WINDS...

EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, FROM 37 TO 50 MPH,
WILL BE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS INLAND COLLIER, HENDRY AND
GLADES COUNTIES TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS FAY MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO
CARPORTS, AWNINGS AND POOL ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE
OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME
DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...INLAND FLOODING...

TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR HAS AVERAGED 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES. ABOUT 6 AND A
HALF INCHES WAS REPORTED IN CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY NEAR LION
COUNTRY SAFARI. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS
RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL
RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE
ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE
SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES WERE REPORTED IN THE WELLINGTON AREA OF METRO PALM
BEACH COUNTY BETWEEN 130 AND 2 AM WITH SOME DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS.
MOST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT
OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS QUADRANT IS A
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN
BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 AM EDT.

$$

FLZ168-172>174-191545-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
602 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED
WINDS UPDATED
REAL TIME REPORTS UPDATED

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL MIAMI DADE...COASTAL PALM BEACH...FAR 
	SOUTH MIAMI DADE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM FAY IS ONSHORE
IN COLLIER COUNTY AND WILL BE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION LATER TODAY. UNNECESSARY TRAVELING IS
DISCOURAGED TODAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. STAY
AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. IF POWER OUTAGES OCCUR AND A
GENERATOR IS USED, ENSURE ADEQUATE VENTILATION TO PREVENT CARBON
MONOXIDE POISONING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

CURRENT TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WATER
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM.

...WINDS...

EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE. ON THE BEACHES, WINDS OF 30 MPH GUSTING TO 42 MPH WERE
REPORTED AT VIRGINIA KEY AT 536 AM EDT, WHILE LAKE WORTH REPORTED
29 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 33 MPH AT 5 AM EDT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS, CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS FAY MOVES NORTH.

...INLAND FLOODING...

TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR HAS AVERAGED 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES. ABOUT 6 AND A
HALF INCHES WAS REPORTED IN CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY NEAR LION
COUNTRY SAFARI. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS
RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL
RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE
ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE
SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES WERE REPORTED IN THE WELLINGTON AREA OF METRO PALM
BEACH COUNTY BETWEEN 130 AND 2 AM WITH SOME DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS.
MOST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT
OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS QUADRANT IS A
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN
BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 AM EDT.

$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-191545-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
602 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED
TIMING UPDATED
REAL TIME REPORTS UPDATED

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	BISCAYNE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN 
	REEF, FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO 
	DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM...LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WATERS FROM 
	DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE 
	TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS...WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET 
	TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT TODAY.

...WINDS...

FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT CONTINUES TO REPORT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 37 KNOTS GUSTING TO 43 KNOTS AT 5 AM EDT. ON
THE BEACHES, WINDS OF 30 MPH GUSTING TO 42 MPH WERE REPORTED AT
VIRGINIA KEY AT 536 AM EDT, WHILE LAKE WORTH REPORTED 29 MPH WINDS
GUSTING TO 33 MPH AT 5 AM EDT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS,
ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS, CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING AS
FAY MOVES NORTH WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE ARE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, FROM 37 TO 50 MPH, WILL BE SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS INLAND COLLIER, HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES TOWARD
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS FAY MOVES INLAND.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES WERE REPORTED WITH SOME DAMAGE IN THE WELLINGTON AREA OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY AROUND 130 TO 2 AM EDT. THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS QUADRANT IS A FAVORED
LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN BANDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING. A TORNADO
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
SQUALLS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SEAS
WILL BE AS HIGH AS 7 TO 9 FEET AND POSSIBLY 10 TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLY MINOR
BEACH EROSION. THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WILL BE CAUSING ABOVE NORMAL LAKE LEVELS ON THE
WESTERN SHORE. FAY IS FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE LAKE
TODAY, CAUSING THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE TO FLUCTUATE
DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 AM EDT.

$$

000
WTUS82 KMFL 191012 CCA
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
611 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...FAY MAKES LANDFALL IN COLLIER COUNTY, MOVING INLAND...

.AT 6 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED OVER
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY JUST EAST OF NAPLES. THIS LOCATION WAS
CLOSE TO GOLDEN GATE OR ABOUT 85 MILES WEST OF MIAMI.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, TAKING THE CENTER OF FAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS FAY MOVES INLAND.


FLZ069-075-191600-
/O.CAN.KMFL.HU.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.COR.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-
611 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

...NEW INFORMATION...

WARNINGS UPDATED
LOCATION UPDATED
STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE UPDATED
CURRENT REPORTS INCLUDED

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	COASTAL COLLIER...MAINLAND MONROE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVELING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THIS MORNING ACROSS METRO
COLLIER COUNTY AS FAY MOVES INLAND. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, IF A GENERATOR IS USED MAKE SURE IT
HAS ADEQUATE VENTILATION TO PREVENT CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING.
STAY AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

NOW THAT TROPICAL STORM FAY IS ONSHORE NEAR MARCO ISLAND, THE WIND
IS BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE EVERGLADES CITY AND CHOKOLOSKEE AREAS.
THIS SHOULD PUSH A STORM TIDE OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL
ONTO THE MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTLINE FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE AND EVERGLADES CITY WEST TO COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE
PARK, GOODLAND AND MARCO ISLAND. HIGH TIDE WAS AROUND 4 AM BUT THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MINOR FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS LIKELY. ANOTHER HIGH TIDE OCCURS AROUND 4 TO
5 PM TODAY, AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM FAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TIDES THEN ALSO.

AT NAPLES, THE FLOW IS STILL OFFSHORE AND TIDES ARE STILL NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS. AS FAY MOVES INLAND, THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
CHANGE AND BECOME ONSHORE. HIGH TIDE AROUND 3 PM TODAY WILL
LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONSHORE FLOW FROM FAY.

...WINDS...

THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
FAY ARE OCCURRING IN COLLIER COUNTY, WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 47 MPH
GUSTING TO 69 MPH REPORTED AT EVERGLADES CITY AT 5 AM. AT NAPLES,
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 32 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH WERE REPORTED AT 5 AM.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 60 TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING AS FAY MOVES SLOWLY
THROUGH METRO COLLIER COUNTY. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

...INLAND FLOODING...

TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE ACCOMPANYING THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY
AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT RAIN
GAGES IN COLLIER COUNTY ARE REPORTING WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY, INCLUDING NEARLY 6 INCHES AT ROOKERY
BAY PRESERVE AND NEARLY 5 INCHES AT COLLIER SEMINOLE STATE PARK
AND COWBELL STRAND. GRAND TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY FROM FAY, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS
12 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS
RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL
RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE
ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE
SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.


...TORNADOES...

WITH FAY NOW ON THE COAST, THE RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
THAN AN ISOLATED TORNADO OCCURS. THEREFORE, A TORNADO WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 AM EDT.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-191600-
/O.CAN.KMFL.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.COR.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 
20 TO 60 NM-
611 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
...HURRICANE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED
TIMING AND REPORTS UPDATED
MARINE IMPACTS UPDATED

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM...
	COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 
	NM...GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING 
	FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINE CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT ALL DAY TODAY.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL OF THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS AS HIGH AS HURRICANE FORCE POSSIBLE.

...TORNADOES...

WITH FAY NOW ON THE COAST, THE RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
THAN AN ISOLATED TORNADO OCCURS. THEREFORE, A TORNADO WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS
OF 41 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT
EVERGLADES CITY AT 5 AM. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF
45 TO 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE
THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE EXTREMELY ROUGH AND CONFUSED, IN
EXCESS OF 10 FEET OFFSHORE AND FROM 7 TO 10 FEET NEARSHORE. SURF
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE ROUGH AND
DANGEROUS THIS MORNING, AND ESPECIALLY ON AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE. MARINERS SHOULD STAY IN SAFE PORT. BEACH
EROSION IS LIKELY AS FAY PASSES BY THE AREA AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 AM EDT.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-070>074-191600-
/O.EXT.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080820T0000Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH-
611 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED
TIMING AND EFFECTS UPDATED
PREPARATION UPDATED
REAL TIME REPORTS UPDATED

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND BROWARD...INLAND COLLIER...INLAND 
	MIAMI DADE...INLAND PALM BEACH...METRO BROWARD...METRO MIAMI 
	DADE...METRO PALM BEACH.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM FAY IS ONSHORE
IN COLLIER COUNTY AND WILL BE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION LATER TODAY. TRAVELING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED
TODAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. STAY AWAY FROM
DOWNED POWER LINES. IF POWER OUTAGES OCCUR AND A GENERATOR IS
USED, ENSURE ADEQUATE VENTILATION TO PREVENT CARBON MONOXIDE
POISONING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

CURRENT TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WATER
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WILL BE CAUSING ABOVE NORMAL LAKE LEVELS ON THE
WESTERN SHORE. FAY IS FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE LAKE
TODAY, CAUSING THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE TO FLUCTUATE
DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...WINDS...

EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, FROM 37 TO 50 MPH,
WILL BE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS INLAND COLLIER, HENDRY AND
GLADES COUNTIES TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS FAY MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO
CARPORTS, AWNINGS AND POOL ENCLOSURES AND SOME DAMAGE TO
UNANCHORED MOBILE HOMES. SMALL BRANCHES BREAK OFF TREES AND LOOSE
OBJECTS ARE BLOWN ABOUT. WINDS IN THIS RANGE BEGIN TO BECOME
DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

...INLAND FLOODING...

TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR HAS AVERAGED 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES. ABOUT 6 AND A
HALF INCHES WAS REPORTED IN CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY NEAR LION
COUNTRY SAFARI. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS
RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL
RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE
ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE
SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES WERE REPORTED IN THE WELLINGTON AREA OF METRO PALM
BEACH COUNTY BETWEEN 130 AND 2 AM WITH SOME DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS.
MOST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT
OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS QUADRANT IS A
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN
BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 AM EDT.

$$

FLZ168-172>174-191600-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
611 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED
WINDS UPDATED
REAL TIME REPORTS UPDATED

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	COASTAL BROWARD...COASTAL MIAMI DADE...COASTAL PALM BEACH...FAR 
	SOUTH MIAMI DADE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	FLOOD WATCH.
	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TROPICAL STORM FAY IS ONSHORE
IN COLLIER COUNTY AND WILL BE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION LATER TODAY. UNNECESSARY TRAVELING IS
DISCOURAGED TODAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. STAY
AWAY FROM DOWNED POWER LINES. IF POWER OUTAGES OCCUR AND A
GENERATOR IS USED, ENSURE ADEQUATE VENTILATION TO PREVENT CARBON
MONOXIDE POISONING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...

CURRENT TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA
ARE AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WATER
LEVELS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ESPECIALLY AT THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 11 AM.

...WINDS...

EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA ARE
SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE. ON THE BEACHES, WINDS OF 30 MPH GUSTING TO 42 MPH WERE
REPORTED AT VIRGINIA KEY AT 536 AM EDT, WHILE LAKE WORTH REPORTED
29 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 33 MPH AT 5 AM EDT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS, CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS FAY MOVES NORTH.

...INLAND FLOODING...

TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR HAS AVERAGED 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES. ABOUT 6 AND A
HALF INCHES WAS REPORTED IN CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY NEAR LION
COUNTRY SAFARI. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF SPIRAL BANDS OCCURS. THIS
RAINFALL CAN EASILY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING POORLY DRAINED
UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE DITCHES, AS WELL AS PONDING OF RAINFALL
RUNOFF IN PARKING LOTS. BE SURE THAT DEBRIS DOES NOT CLOG DRAINAGE
ROUTES IN ORDER TO EASE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF SQUALLS SETS UP ACROSS THE
SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE ACROSS
WATER OF AN UNKNOWN DEPTH, TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. A FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES WERE REPORTED IN THE WELLINGTON AREA OF METRO PALM
BEACH COUNTY BETWEEN 130 AND 2 AM WITH SOME DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS.
MOST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT
OF FAY FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS QUADRANT IS A
FAVORED LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN
BANDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 AM EDT.

$$

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-191600-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
611 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...

LOCATION UPDATED
TIMING UPDATED
REAL TIME REPORTS UPDATED

...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE AREAS:

	BISCAYNE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN 
	REEF, FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO 
	DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM...LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WATERS FROM 
	DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE 
	TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS...WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET 
	TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA:

	TORNADO WATCH.
	TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL MARINE CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN SAFE PORT TODAY.

...WINDS...

FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT CONTINUES TO REPORT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 37 KNOTS GUSTING TO 43 KNOTS AT 5 AM EDT. ON
THE BEACHES, WINDS OF 30 MPH GUSTING TO 42 MPH WERE REPORTED AT
VIRGINIA KEY AT 536 AM EDT, WHILE LAKE WORTH REPORTED 29 MPH WINDS
GUSTING TO 33 MPH AT 5 AM EDT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS,
ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS, CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING AS
FAY MOVES NORTH WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE ARE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30
MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, FROM 37 TO 50 MPH, WILL BE SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS INLAND COLLIER, HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES TOWARD
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS FAY MOVES INLAND.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES WERE REPORTED WITH SOME DAMAGE IN THE WELLINGTON AREA OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY AROUND 130 TO 2 AM EDT. THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY
FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS QUADRANT IS A FAVORED
LOCATION FOR SMALL QUICK STRIKING TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SPIRAL BANDS OF SQUALLS. AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTH, THE MAIN THREAT OF TORNADO PRODUCING RAIN BANDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING. A TORNADO
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
SQUALLS THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SEAS
WILL BE AS HIGH AS 7 TO 9 FEET AND POSSIBLY 10 TO 12 FEET OFFSHORE
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY ROUGH SURF AND POSSIBLY MINOR
BEACH EROSION. THE RISK OF STRONG DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE
HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE LEVEL IS NEAR 11.3 FEET, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WILL BE CAUSING ABOVE NORMAL LAKE LEVELS ON THE
WESTERN SHORE. FAY IS FORECAST TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE LAKE
TODAY, CAUSING THE WATER LEVELS IN THE LAKE TO FLUCTUATE
DRAMATICALLY DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND.

...NEXT UPDATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 9 AM EDT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
432 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM FAY MOVING ACROSS CUBA THIS MORNING
WITH RAIN BANDS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS AND INTO MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA. FAY REMAINS DISJOINTED THIS MORNING WITH THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION REMOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ACTUAL SURFACE
CENTER BUT AT ANY RATE PWATS ANDS HELICITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE STORM NEARS THE CWA, AND INDEED WEAK,
VERY WEAK ROTATION HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED WITH SOME OF THE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GULF STEAM. WITH FAY REMAINING
DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING THIS POSES HUGE UNCERTAINTIES TO THE
FORECAST TRACK, BUT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA
AND CONTINUE INTO LATE TUES / EARLY WED WITH 4 TO 8 RAINFALL
TOTALS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. REFER TO THE
LATEST LOCAL HLS FOR ALL EXPECTED THREATS AND NHC FOR THE LATEST
EXPECTED TRACK.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE CWA WITH POPS AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO VALUES FOR S FL
IN THE SUMMER.

&&

.MARINE...AS FAY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 12 FEET IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
AND TO AROUND 8 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT.
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING SEAS AS IT
DOES SO. BEYOND WEDNESDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REBUILD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LOWER WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  78  86  76 / 90 90 80 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  79  86  77 / 90 90 80 60
MIAMI            84  79  86  76 / 90 90 80 60
NAPLES           88  76  85  77 / 80 90 90 70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-
     FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-
     FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ063-
     FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074.

     HURRICANE WATCH FOR FLZ069-FLZ075-FLZ174.

     TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-
     AMZ671.

GM...HURRICANE WATCH FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-GMZ676.

&&

TINGLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
535 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

CORRECTION TO ADD FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA IN HEADLINES

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-190000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL
BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
535 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...
...FLOOD WATCH SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEE THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE MIAMI NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI TO GET DETAILS ABOUT THE WEATHER EFFECTS
ON SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THIS TROPICAL STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TROPICAL STORM FAY COULD STILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM FAY AFFECTS SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
842 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FLZ071-072-172-181330-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
842 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL BROWARD...

AT 842 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DANIA BEACH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 24 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

INTERSECTION I-595 AND I-95...
DOWNTOWN-DAVIE...
PLANTATION...
SUNRISE...
SAWGRASS MILLS MALL...
CORAL SPRINGS...
FORT LAUDERDALE...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

LOCAL MEDIA RECENTLY RELAYED A REPORTED WIND GUST OF 42 MPH FROM A
MESONET SITE IN FORT LAUDERDALE.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2611 8012 2610 8012 2609 8011 2610 8011
      2607 8012 2604 8015 2619 8051 2633 8041
      2633 8028 2616 8010 2614 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1242Z 125DEG 21KT 2611 8019

GS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
908 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FLZ073>075-173-174-181400-
MAINLAND MONROE FL-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-INLAND MIAMI-DADE FL-COASTAL MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY FL-
908 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...

AT 905 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF KEY BISCAYNE TO 11 MILES EAST OF HOMESTEAD BAYFRONT PARK TO OCEAN
REEF TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROUTE 1/CARD SOUND ROAD S...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 36 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

TURKEY PT...
HOMESTEAD BAYFRONT PARK...
HOMESTEAD MIAMI SPEEDWAY...
BLACK PT...
CUTLER BAY...
KEY BISCAYNE...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

ALSO...THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES.

LAT...LON 2573 8021 2572 8024 2560 8031 2548 8034
      2540 8032 2539 8023 2553 8018 2553 8017
      2537 8023 2539 8029 2527 8039 2520 8049
      2521 8053 2519 8056 2540 8099 2572 8066
      2579 8032 2571 8015 2567 8015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1308Z 119DEG 32KT 2553 7994 2549 8019
          2540 8029 2524 8045

GS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1017 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FLZ063-066>068-181445-
HENDRY FL-GLADES FL-INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
1017 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 1017 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
OKEELANTA TO ROYAL PALM BEACH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

OKEELANTA...
BELLE GLADE...
LAKE HARBOR...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2673 8020 2649 8086 2674 8113 2680 8095
      2671 8082 2671 8078 2669 8074 2672 8073
      2677 8075 2678 8072 2675 8071 2676 8070
      2681 8070 2687 8063 2695 8061 2697 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 1417Z 137DEG 18KT 2659 8084 2677 8030

GS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1058 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FLZ073-074-173-174-181530-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE FL-COASTAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL-
1058 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE MIAMI-DADE...

AT 1053 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PERRINE TO HOMESTEAD
BAYFRONT PARK...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

BLACK PT...
THE FALLS...
WESTWOOD LAKES...
KENDALE LAKES...
MICCOSUKEE RESORT...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS HIGHWAY 1...KROME AVENUE...AND CARD
SOUND ROAD IN SOUTHERN DADE COUNTY.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

ALSO...THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES.

LAT...LON 2563 8027 2560 8031 2559 8030 2554 8030
      2550 8033 2544 8031 2540 8032 2539 8030
      2533 8034 2533 8035 2529 8038 2557 8080
      2587 8055 2569 8025
TIME...MOT...LOC 1458Z 126DEG 35KT 2561 8029 2544 8039

GS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1124 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FLZ067-068-168-172-181615-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
1124 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ONSHORE NORTHERN BROWARD AND SOUTHERN
PALM BEACH COUNTIES...

AT 1124 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DELRAY BEACH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 31 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

BOCA WEST...
DELRAY BEACH...
VILLAGE OF GOLF...
ABERDEEN...
FLORIDA GARDENS...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES. A WEAK TORNADO COULD FORM AT ANY TIME.

LAT...LON 2654 8004 2649 8005 2645 8005 2643 8006
      2639 8006 2638 8007 2631 8007 2631 8008
      2639 8023 2667 8052 2666 8005 2655 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1524Z 138DEG 27KT 2643 8006

GS