Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 062202
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

TXC103-371-389-475-062245-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-080506T2245Z/
WARD TX-CRANE TX-PECOS TX-REEVES TX-
502 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR EXTREME EAST CENTRAL REEVES...NORTH CENTRAL PECOS...NORTHERN
CRANE AND EASTERN WARD COUNTIES...

AT 457 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS 
IN GRANDFALLS.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL 
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...WAS LOCATED 
NEAR GRANDFALLS...OR ABOUT 16 MILES SOUTH OF MONAHANS...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 36 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...WEST
CENTRAL CRANE COUNTY...CENTRAL CRANE COUNTY AND NORTH CENTRAL CRANE
COUNTY.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS DETECTED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY... A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3162 10231 3160 10231 3117 10295 3129 10311
      3166 10276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 229DEG 31KT 3141 10274

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
244 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER
NORTHWESTERN PECOS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MOST LIKELY THE
FIRST SIGNS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW EXITING THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THE DEEPEST CU DEVELOPMENT FROM
WESTERN PECOS COUNTY...SOUTH TO NORTHERN BREWSTER COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ENHANCES HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS TOO FAR EAST WITH THE DRYLINE
ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED POPS NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE LINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSHED POP
LINES SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL
CONVECTION SHOULD BE DISCRETE CELLS BECOMING MULITCELL LINEAR AS
MORE BROADSCALE LIFT APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT ACTIVATING THE
DRYLINE ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION.

.LONG TERM...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW
MORNING. SOME LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN BASIN BUT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN
TOMORROW THANKS TO WESTERLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. WINDS WILL GUST ONCE AGAIN IN THE PASS...BUT EXPECT
STRONG WINDS IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS ACROSS THE VAN HORN CORRIDOR WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETTING UP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE LOW EARLY THURSDAY BUT WILL STALL OUT IN THE TRANSPECOS
VALLEY BEFORE LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER WEAK S/W TROFS MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS INTO WEST TEXAS.
UNFORTUNATELY THE UPPER DYNAMICS OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE TOO FAR
REMOVED FROM THE AREA TO BRING ANY DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

HENNIG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS...VAN HORN AREA...DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU UNTIL 10
PM CDT.  THIS AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 MPH OR GREATER WILL
COINCIDE WITH RH/S OF 15 PERCENT OR LOWER DURING THIS TIME.
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE DAVIS AND GLASS MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 20 MPH OR GREATER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS INTO THIS EVENING...BUT MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH/S WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND TRANS PECOS
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 60
MPH...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE VERY HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING...BUT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT.  RH/S WILL END
UP BEING POOR MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY...WHILE RH/S DROP TO 10
TO 15 PERCENT.  SINCE FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH TO VERY HIGH...A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 10 AM
CDT UNTIL 7 PM CDT.  RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE POOR ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PECOS RIVER...WITH FAIR TO GOOD TO THE NORTH OF THE
PECOS.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              63  85  58  90  /  60  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                59  87  57  94  /  30  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  64  93  61  96  /  40  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  87  61  94  /  40  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  81  58  86  /  20  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  86  53  93  /  40  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   50  81  46  86  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  86  58  93  /  50  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  63  86  60  94  /  50  10   0   0
WINK TX                    64  92  59  98  /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...
     SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM
     MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BIG BEND
     AREA...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...
     DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
     HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
     MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY
     AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON...VAN HORN
     AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...DAVIS/APACHE
     MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
     LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
     PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

&&

67/10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
207 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-071915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
207 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008 /107 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...STOCKTON PLATEAU...DAVIS AND GLASS MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE BIG BEND REGION AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.  HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING.  THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE VAN HORN AREA...DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU.  A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY.  A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GUADALUPE
AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...WHERE WIND SPEEDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND GUSTS
NEAR 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY ON THE GUSTY WEST
WINDS.  SINCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT
AND FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY...A RED FLAG WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
336 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

TXZ060-062100-
WINKLER-
336 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR WINKLER COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WINK AT 336 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 28 MPH.

PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.