River Flood Warning 1, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS84 KMAF 181944
FLSMAF
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
244 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
TEXAS...
 
  DEEP CREEK NEAR DUNN AFFECTING MITCHELL AND SCURRY
  COUNTIES

CREEK LEVELS FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLIER TODAY.  THEREFORE THE
FLOOD WARNING IS BEING CANCELLED.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH COULD CAUSE ABRUPT RISES ON THIS AND OTHER
CREEKS AND RIVERS IN THE AREA.  USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING IN AND
AROUND THIS AREA TONIGHT.

THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AREA. IF YOU 
ENCOUNTER A FLOODED STRETCH OF ROADWAY... DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS IT.
YOUR VEHICLE COULD BE SWEPT DOWNSTREAM IN RUSHING FLOODWATERS.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO OUR LOCAL WEBPAGE LOCATED
AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND ...SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER 
CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TXC335-415-182014-
/O.CAN.KMAF.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080619T0934Z/
/DEET2.1.ER.080618T1107Z.080618T1300Z.080618T1440Z.NO/
244 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  DEEP CREEK NEAR DUNN.
* AT  2PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET (2.0 METERS). 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  9:40 AM WEDNESDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET (4.3 METERS). 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 5.3 FEET (1.6 METERS)
  BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET (4.3 METERS)...LOW WATER CHANNEL BANKS 
  OVERFLOW.  NO DAMAGE IS EXPECTED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS OF SUNRISE.
EXPECTING THIS TO DIE OUT NEXT FEW HOURS.  WILL CARRY TEMPO STORMS
PEQ AND FST... COULD SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 511 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008/

DISCUSSION...
EXPECTED MCS HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN EXPECTED.  CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOLLOWING THE WAKE OF THE MCS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN.  ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE SOMETIME BEFORE NOON...CONTINUATION INTO THE AFTERNOON
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.  BATCH OF SHOWERS
OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS/BBNP BUT WILL DO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS.

ACTIVE RAINFALL PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS BEGIN WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
AND THUS INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER THE AREA AS SHORTWAVES
ROUND THE RIDGE.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER THE AREA TODAY LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
FOCAL POINT FOR POTENTIAL RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.  WENT WITH
HIGHEST POPS FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  INSTABILITY WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND
LI/S SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.  0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS LEADS TO
BELIEVE THAT STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE AND LIKELY PRODUCE HAIL.
STRONG WINDS HAVE ACCOMPANIED MANY STORM OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE AGAIN
TODAY.  MOST LATE OVERNIGHT STORMS OVER WESTERN TEXAS SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.

AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REPEAT THEMSELVES OVER WESTERN CWA
AREAS AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER
MCS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.  CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS
TO BE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO THE MCS.  IF THIS
DOES INDEED PLAY OUT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH/DAMAGING
WIND EVENT THROUGH THE AREA.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD TRANSITION
BACK TO A WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
416 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-190930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
416 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008 /316 AM MDT WED JUN 18 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STORMS FROM LAST NIGHT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG.  THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A CHANCE OF
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS
NORTHWARD INTO EDDY COUNTY.  THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WIND...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WHILE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY OR TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY GENERALLY BE NEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
403 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

TXZ045-046-180930-
GAINES-DAWSON-
403 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EASTERN GAINES AND WEST CENTRAL
DAWSON COUNTIES.

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ASHMORE
AT 403 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

AS THIS THUNDERSTORM INCREASES...SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.