Tornado Warning 16, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
110 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE TOMORROW.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STALLED FRONT AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 447 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 8 PM. REST OF THINKING BELOW REMAINS THE SAME.

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN MCV IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITHIN WESTERLIES
ALOFT. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 50-125KT JET FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER NEW
ENGLAND. A 125-175KT JET WAS ENTERING THE BACKSIDE OF THE CALIFORNIA
TROUGH. 11Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
NEAR CULPEPER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE RICHMOND AREA. A TROUGH WAS
LOCATED IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WAS LOCATED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY.

THE REGION WAS UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK IN COLLABORATION WITH
SPC EARLIER THIS MORNING. WEAKER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WANED AND
SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. AS OF 14Z
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN MARYLAND WAS BECOMING MORE
ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THE MCV APPROACHING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD ALL COME TOGETHER TO PROVIDE A
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH THE MCV SERVING AS A TRIGGER AND BUILDING INSTABILITY...STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITHIN WESTERLIES
ALOFT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. VEERING SEEN IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WITH 750M LCLS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

WE PLAN TO RELEASE AN 18Z BALLOON TO MONITOR ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS...DATA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE AROUND 19Z.

DECIDED TO LOWER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. CURRENTLY HAVE VERY LOW
STORM COVERAGE...AND NO REPORTED ISSUES. DO ANTICIPATE HEAVIER
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD PRESENT A
MORE TYPICAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MCV THIS
EVENING. INSTABILITY RE-BUILDS QUICKLY TOMORROW AS RIDGING OCCURS
ALOFT. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A
RESULT...ON THE EDGE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE STRONG DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST FEEL OF SUMMER IS STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THIS SHOULD
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO WILL CARRY DRY FORECASTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ANTICIPATED DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
EVENING PUSH. IN ADDITION TO TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING
THREAT...SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
UPDATED TAFS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION
TO LIGHTNING THREAT...SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND WATERSPOUTS. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>537.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SAR
NEAR TERM...ROGOWSKI
SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...ROGOWSKI
MARINE...ROGOWSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
104 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
051000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
104 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH 8 PM FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA. A
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MARYLAND
PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE ENTIRE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER.

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED INJURIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050-051-
WVZ050>055-501>504-051000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-
HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
104 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED THROUGH 8 PM FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA. A
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL
HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED INJURIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

ROGOWSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
244 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DELAPLANE               38.92N 77.92W
06/04/2008                   FAUQUIER           VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF OFF HOUSE. POWER LINES DOWN. POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD.

&&

WOODCOCK

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