Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 030031
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
729 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

ILC013-061-083-MOC163-030039-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-080603T0100Z/
JERSEY IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-PIKE MO-
729 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN GREENE...CALHOUN AND
NORTHERN JERSEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND EASTERN PIKE
COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.  HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND 
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING EAST THROUGH 
CALHOUN...GREEN AND INTO NORTHERN JERSEY COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3940 9095 3939 9066 3939 9062 3941 9062
      3937 9023 3914 9033 3930 9100 3941 9098
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 282DEG 42KT 3932 9068

$$

CARNEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
243 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/242 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, SURFACE
WARM FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST MO INTO
EASTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT AS MCS PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO NORTH MO EARLY ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

850 MB MOISTURE WAS POOLED FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO THIS
MORNING. THE VARIOUS MODELS VERIFIED FAIRLY CLOSE WITH WIND AND
MOISTURE FIELDS. MCS DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
MOISTURE INFLOW AND CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST MO.
DENSE BLOWOFF CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL MO AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED INTO NORTH MO TONIGHT BY THE VARIOUS MODELS.
EXPECT MCS TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
EVENING AND THEN SAG SOUTHEASTWARD.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY SIMILAR PAST FEW DAYS IN
FORECASTING A DEEP UPPER TROF/CLOSED LOW WILL DIG ACROSS THE ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN AND STILL IS STRONGER AND DEEPER
WITH SYSTEM WITH THE H5 LOW NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION THURSDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT, DEEP SURFACE LOW FOR EARLY JUNE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS KS ON THURSDAY. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM, EXPECT STRONG SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST MO THURSDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

BOTH MODELS THEN BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS A RESULT.

TPS
&&

.AVIATION...
/1239 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...MCS OVER ERN KS AND WRN MO IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS ERN MO. UIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE EWD ALONG THE WARMFRONT. ATMO ACROSS
CENTRAL...ERN AND SERN MO HAS DESTABILIZED THIS MORNING. EXPECT
TSRA TO REMAIN S AND E OF THE SUS...STL AREA. TSRA...SHRA ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COU FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF STL...SUS AND COU. HOWEVER...
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CONVECTION MAY PROPAGATE FURTHER S THAT
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW TODAYS
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT TONIGHTS...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
MENTIONING TSRA FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
315 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TONIGHT. THE MOSTLY LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ARE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING...AND THEN OVER
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NORTHWEST OF I-44
IN MISSOURI AND I-70 IN ILLINOIS.

THERE IS A RISK OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS A STRONG LATE SPRING STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF EAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
603 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             3 S SHELBINA            39.65N  92.04W
06/02/2008  E0.75 INCH       MONROE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00304

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             CENTER                  39.51N  91.53W
06/02/2008  E0.75 INCH       RALLS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00306

SIPPRELL