Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 251955
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
255 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

ILC005-027-051-252005-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0187.000000T0000Z-080525T2000Z/
CLINTON IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-
255 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE...
SOUTHERN BOND AND NORTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 300 PM
CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3873 8960 3884 8961 3885 8960 3894 8915
      3868 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 268DEG 25KT 3878 8908

$$

MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/435 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008/
ANOTHER DAY IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
PCPN FORECAST. MODELS ALL TAKE THE HI AMPLITUDE H500 RIDGE THAT
HAD DOMINATED THE CNTRL CONUS AND FLATTEN IT OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT 24-36HRS...BUT THIS IS MERELY TEMPORARY...AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF BY MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HI PRES
FADES TO THE E TODAY...AND WRMFNT PUSHES THRU...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF S FLOW. THIS REMAINS IN FORCE THRU TONIGHT AND THE EARLY
PART OF MONDAY UNTIL CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NRN FA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PROCEED TO SLOWLY
PUSH THRU THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. I USE THE TERM FRONT
LOOSELY IN THIS CASE AS EXPECTED MCS TO OUR NW AND N LATE TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY DROP AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER S AT A
QUICKER RATE THAN MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. BY MID
WEEK...STRONG 1030MB HI PRES TAKES CONTROL FROM THE N WITH NELY
SFC FLOW AND DRY AIR.

RICH MOISTURE THRU THE COLUMN WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THRU EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS AOA 1.5 OR AOA 200PCT OF NORMAL. PASSAGE OF
CDFNT ON TUESDAY WILL FINALLY ALLOW MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER SWD.
INSTABILITY THRU EARLY TUESDAY WILL ALSO NOT BE IN SHORT SUPPLY
EITHER...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1K AND 3K J/KG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIME PERIOD. THE
KEY WILL BE PICKING OUT THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS FOR PCPN PROB
FORECAST BUT GIVEN HI MOISTURE CONTENT...ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL DUE TO
EXPECTED HI EFFICIENCY RAINFALL RATES.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORCING WILL COME ALOFT FROM H850 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FROM LO LEVEL JET AND ALSO SOME WAA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE NRN FA THIS MORNING...
WITH LESSER CHANCES IN CNTRL AND E CNTRL MO AND SWRN IL. ALMOST
NON-EXISTANT CAP THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE CELLS TO
DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...SO EXPANDED LOW CHANCE TO
ALL AREAS. DECENTLY HI MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG BUT NOT THE BEST
ENVIRONMENT OTHERWISE...MAY LEAD TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS SHOULD
THEY FORM. WENT WITH A MOS BLEND ON TEMPS...AS SLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS NOT CONDUCIVE TO FULL H850 MIXING...AND WHILE MUCH WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...SHOULD ONLY PEAK IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

MORE POTENT CONVECTION TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT WITH EXPECTED MCS
OVER NWRN MO WHICH SHOULD TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN MO. EXPECT IT TO
ARRIVE IN THE NRN FA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING. GOOD FORCING THRU THE COLUMN...INCLUDING RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT...AND VERY MOIST AMS WILL HELP
INDUCE HI RAINFALL RATES. ALL OF THIS NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NRN FA EN MASSE UNTIL 09Z/MON AT LEAST...IF NOT LATER. AS THE MCS
TRAVERSES THRU THE NRN FA ON MONDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD DROP AN
OUTFLOW SWD TOWARD THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO AID
IN MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THERE. MONDAY LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WARM FOR AREAS FROM THE
I-70 CORRIDOR S...WITH A TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT SOMEWHERE TO THE N
DEPENDING ON EXACT MCS TRACK AND IMPACT...BUT HI BUST POTENTIAL
HAS ME BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE WARMER MOS OVER KCOU/KSTL
AREAS AND GOING MID 80S WITH UPR 80S IN STL CITY.

EVERYTHING IS EXPECTED TO RESET AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MCS
DEVELOPS TO OUR W AND TRACKS EWD...BUT WITH A BIT MORE SLY TRACK
THAN THE MCS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...MUCH OF THIS
IS TENTATIVE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT IMPACT OF THE MCS TONIGHT AND
WHERE BOUNDARIES GET LAID OUT ETC.

SYNOPTIC FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THRU THE SRN FA ON TUESDAY GIVING
OUR AREA A REPRIEVE IN THE RAIN CHANCES. HI PRES BUILDING BEHIND
IT LOOKS RATHER POTENT...1030MB STRENGTH...AND SHOULD SEE MILD
TEMPS WITH LOW HUMIDITY OVER MOST OF THE FA.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
/1131 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS PUSHED E OF
THE TAF SITES ATTM EXPECTING AT LEAST ISOLD TO WDLY SCT CONVECTION
TO DVLP THIS AFTN NR OUTFLOW BNDRYS FM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND AS
A WRMFNT MOVES NEWD THRU THE CWA. LATEST RADAR IMAGES DEPICT AN
ISOLD TSRA OVER THE WRN PTN OF THE STL METRO AREA WHICH MAY
IMPACT STL/SUS ARND 18Z. LOW LVL STRATUS CLOUD CEILING IN COU
SHOULD RISE INTO THE VFR CATAGORY EARLY THIS AFTN. S-SELY SFC
WNDS SHOULD VEER ARND TO A MORE S-SWLY DIRECTION TGT AND MON MRNG
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WRMFNT. SHOULD BE MAINLY MID-HI LVL
CLOUDINESS TGT. AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU NRN MO LT TGT INTO
MON MRNG. WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GRP OF TSRA IN UIN DURING THE
EARLY MRNG HRS. MAY ALSO INCLUDE A PROB30 GRP OF TSRA FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES BY LT MRNG ON MON ALONG WITH A LOW LVL CLOUD
CEILING ARND 3000 FT.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
533 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-261200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
533 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ST. LOUIS...OR INCLUDING PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE GREATER
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE ON
MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. IT IS LIKELY A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 PM     HAIL             ELLISVILLE              38.59N  90.59W
05/25/2008  E0.50 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00098

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
121 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 PM     HAIL             ST. LOUIS               38.64N  90.24W
05/25/2008  M0.88 INCH       ST. LOUIS CITY     MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00099

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
129 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 PM     HAIL             GLEN CARBON             38.76N  89.97W
05/25/2008  M1.00 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON COLLINSVILLE STREET IN GLEN CARBON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00100

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
136 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             EDWARDSVILLE            38.80N  89.97W
05/25/2008  M0.88 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00101

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
155 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     HAIL             HIGHLAND                38.74N  89.68W
05/25/2008  E0.88 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00102

FGLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
156 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             GLEN CARBON             38.76N  89.97W
05/25/2008  E0.88 INCH       MADISON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00103

FGLASS