Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 251248
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
748 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

ILC001-MOC111-127-251258-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0177.000000T0000Z-080525T1245Z/
ADAMS IL-MARION MO-LEWIS MO-
748 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS...
NORTHEASTERN MARION AND SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 745 AM
CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER
APPEARED TO BE SEVERE.

LAT...LON 3977 9110 3975 9154 3997 9164 4004 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1158Z 263DEG 25KT 3986 9150

$$

TES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/435 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008/
ANOTHER DAY IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND YET ANOTHER CHALLENGING
PCPN FORECAST. MODELS ALL TAKE THE HI AMPLITUDE H500 RIDGE THAT
HAD DOMINATED THE CNTRL CONUS AND FLATTEN IT OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT 24-36HRS...BUT THIS IS MERELY TEMPORARY...AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF BY MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HI PRES
FADES TO THE E TODAY...AND WRMFNT PUSHES THRU...RESULTING IN THE
RETURN OF S FLOW. THIS REMAINS IN FORCE THRU TONIGHT AND THE EARLY
PART OF MONDAY UNTIL CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NRN FA. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PROCEED TO SLOWLY
PUSH THRU THE FA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. I USE THE TERM FRONT
LOOSELY IN THIS CASE AS EXPECTED MCS TO OUR NW AND N LATE TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY DROP AN EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER S AT A
QUICKER RATE THAN MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. BY MID
WEEK...STRONG 1030MB HI PRES TAKES CONTROL FROM THE N WITH NELY
SFC FLOW AND DRY AIR.

RICH MOISTURE THRU THE COLUMN WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THRU EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS AOA 1.5 OR AOA 200PCT OF NORMAL. PASSAGE OF
CDFNT ON TUESDAY WILL FINALLY ALLOW MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER SWD.
INSTABILITY THRU EARLY TUESDAY WILL ALSO NOT BE IN SHORT SUPPLY
EITHER...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1K AND 3K J/KG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIME PERIOD. THE
KEY WILL BE PICKING OUT THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS FOR PCPN PROB
FORECAST BUT GIVEN HI MOISTURE CONTENT...ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL WARRANT SOME MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL DUE TO
EXPECTED HI EFFICIENCY RAINFALL RATES.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORCING WILL COME ALOFT FROM H850 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FROM LO LEVEL JET AND ALSO SOME WAA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE NRN FA THIS MORNING...
WITH LESSER CHANCES IN CNTRL AND E CNTRL MO AND SWRN IL. ALMOST
NON-EXISTANT CAP THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE CELLS TO
DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...SO EXPANDED LOW CHANCE TO
ALL AREAS. DECENTLY HI MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 J/KG BUT NOT THE BEST
ENVIRONMENT OTHERWISE...MAY LEAD TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS SHOULD
THEY FORM. WENT WITH A MOS BLEND ON TEMPS...AS SLY FLOW AND
CLOUDS NOT CONDUCIVE TO FULL H850 MIXING...AND WHILE MUCH WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...SHOULD ONLY PEAK IN THE MID 80S MOST AREAS.

MORE POTENT CONVECTION TAKES PLACE LATER TONIGHT WITH EXPECTED MCS
OVER NWRN MO WHICH SHOULD TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN MO. EXPECT IT TO
ARRIVE IN THE NRN FA LATE TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING. GOOD FORCING THRU THE COLUMN...INCLUDING RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT...AND VERY MOIST AMS WILL HELP
INDUCE HI RAINFALL RATES. ALL OF THIS NOT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
NRN FA EN MASSE UNTIL 09Z/MON AT LEAST...IF NOT LATER. AS THE MCS
TRAVERSES THRU THE NRN FA ON MONDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD DROP AN
OUTFLOW SWD TOWARD THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO AID
IN MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THERE. MONDAY LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER WARM FOR AREAS FROM THE
I-70 CORRIDOR S...WITH A TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT SOMEWHERE TO THE N
DEPENDING ON EXACT MCS TRACK AND IMPACT...BUT HI BUST POTENTIAL
HAS ME BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE WARMER MOS OVER KCOU/KSTL
AREAS AND GOING MID 80S WITH UPR 80S IN STL CITY.

EVERYTHING IS EXPECTED TO RESET AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MCS
DEVELOPS TO OUR W AND TRACKS EWD...BUT WITH A BIT MORE SLY TRACK
THAN THE MCS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY...MUCH OF THIS
IS TENTATIVE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT IMPACT OF THE MCS TONIGHT AND
WHERE BOUNDARIES GET LAID OUT ETC.

SYNOPTIC FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THRU THE SRN FA ON TUESDAY GIVING
OUR AREA A REPRIEVE IN THE RAIN CHANCES. HI PRES BUILDING BEHIND
IT LOOKS RATHER POTENT...1030MB STRENGTH...AND SHOULD SEE MILD
TEMPS WITH LOW HUMIDITY OVER MOST OF THE FA.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
/637 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI...MUCH AS EXPECTED. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL.
HAVE TEMPOS IN AT ALL TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING
NOW. THE CELLS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THEM CAREFULLY AS THEY
MAY IMPACT THE METRO AREA TERMINALS LATER ON IF THEY CAN STAY
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH. MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION DISSIPATES AND WE GET
SOME DAYTIME HEATING. IT LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED AT THE MOST IF REDEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR.
THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED CB INDICATORS IN ALL CLOUD GROUPS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LINGERING IFR/LOW MVFR FOG
AND STRATUS SHOULD BE WASHED OUT OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
BY THE STORMS THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
533 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-261200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
533 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FOR
AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ST. LOUIS...OR INCLUDING PARTS OF
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE GREATER
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE ON
MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. IT IS LIKELY A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 AM     HAIL             BOWLING GREEN           39.34N  91.20W
05/25/2008  E0.25 INCH       PIKE               MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00094

TES