River Flood Warning 163, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
628 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/440 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008/
LOTS GOING ON WX-WISE AND BEHIND THE SCENES...SO WILL BE AS BRIEF
AS I CAN BE. FOCUSED BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE
FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THRU ATTM AND ASSOCIATED STRATIFORM
PCPN BEHIND IT. SOME ADDITIONAL NEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER MID
MO VALLEY...SO MUST BE CAREFUL TO NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE PCPN PROBS
EVEN IN NERN MO THIS MRNG.

DUE TO THE RAIN MOVING THRU MUCH FARTHER SE THRU THE FA AND
EARLIER THAN THOUGHT PREVIOUSLY...NEED TO REFOCUS ITS EFFECTS.
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE TIME TO REGROUP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THE NRN FA NEAR THE SYNOPTIC CDFNT.
NEW MCS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. TRAINING NATURE OF
STORMS...HI MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN THRU LATE TONIGHT. COMBINED
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RECEIVED LAST NIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FFA FOR THE ENTIRE FA THRU EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SAG A BIT SWD ON TUESDAY
AS SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EDGES THAT WAY...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THRU TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL IT EXITS THE FAR SRN FA.

MODEL DIFFS IN PLACEMENT OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO
DIFFS IN PCPN PROBS...BUT FOR NOW NAM LOOKS LIKE THE OUTLIER AND
HAVE DISCOUNTED...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DRY MID WEEK.

TES
&&

.AVIATION...
/628 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED KUIN AND KCOU...BUT
SHOULD STILL SEE SOME VCNTY RWS OFF AND ON FOR THE MORNING. AS FOR
KSUS/KSTL...WILL SEE TRWS THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z...THEN SOME
RWS/VCNTY TRW THROUGH 15Z. AFTER THAT NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO
BEGIN AFFECTING TAF SITES AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
REGION...WITH RWS/VCNTY TS MOVING INTO KUIN AROUND 16Z...AND
AROUND 17Z FOR KCOU...KSUS AND KSTL. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR
TIMING OF ACTIVITY...BUT FOR NOW FEEL THAT THIS ROUND WILL TAPER
OFF BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z...BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND MOVES IN AFTER 07Z
AS NEXT IN SERIES OF MCS/S DEVELOPS AND SLIDES THROUGH. AS FOR
CIGS/VSBYS...WILL VARY BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-IRON-JEFFERSON-
     KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MADISON-MARION-MONITEAU-MONROE-
     MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-REYNOLDS-SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST.
     FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-
     WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-
     BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY
     IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
     PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
423 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-271200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
423 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON CONVECTIVE WATCHES...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER WATCH PRODUCTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. COMBINED WITH VERY WET TO SATURATED
SOILS FROM THE HEAVY RAINS IN SOME AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...THIS
WILL CREATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH PRODUCT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AREAWIDE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL...OR ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
709 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 AM     FLOOD            NASHVILLE               38.35N  89.38W
05/26/2008                   WASHINGTON         IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            6 TO 7 INCHES OF STANDING WATER ON ROUTE 15 WEST OF
            NASHVILLE AND ALSO IN OKAWVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00182

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
731 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             HIGHLAND                38.74N  89.68W
05/25/2008  M0.75 INCH       MADISON            IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00183

DYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
846 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     FLOOD            MONTGOMERY CITY         38.98N  91.51W
05/26/2008                   MONTGOMERY         MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAYS Y AND J REMAINED CLOSED. WATER ON MANY
            SECONDARY ROADS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00184

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
900 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ST. CHARLES             38.79N  90.52W
05/26/2008                   ST. CHARLES        MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTE P CLOSED AT PARR ROAD....HIGHWAY H CLOSED HIGHWAY
            94 AND ALSO AT C AND B.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00185

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
927 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 AM     FLOOD            CARLINVILLE             39.28N  89.88W
05/26/2008                   MACOUPIN           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED INCLUDING HIGWAYS 108 WEST OF
            CARLINVILLE AND 16 IN SHIPMAN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00186

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
938 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     FLOOD            VALLEY PARK             38.55N  90.48W
05/26/2008                   ST. LOUIS          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROUTE 141 AT I 44 FLOODED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00187

BRITT