Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1130 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/345 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008/

WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY. MOST OF NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH
OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THIS SAME
AREA WILL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
TRANSPORT INCREASES UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. SVR
TSRA OVER PLAINS MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE ACROSS NRN NO
LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. PROPAGATION VECTORS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL THAT THE MCS MAY BACKBUILD OR BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY.
PRECIPTIABLE WATERS WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES WHICH WILL INCREASE
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY OF STORMS. WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
CONDITIONS.

STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SVR TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED THROUGHOUT TODAY
AS ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING INCREASING UNSTABLE. SURFACE WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 20Z. DEWPOINTS
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT HAVE CLIMBED INTO LOWER TO MID 70S UNDER
7.5C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WARM FRONT AND VARIOUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LIE ACROSS THE REGION FROM ONGOING CONVECTION WILL ACT
AS FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR CONTINUED TSRA THIS EVENING. GIVEN
MCAPES OF 2000 J/KG WEST OF THE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
35-50KTS...SEVERE TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AND SEVERE TSRA WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MUCH CHANGES OTHERWISE AS EARLY SUMMER AIRMASS
WILL BE REPLACED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND FRONT BY
TUESDAY.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1124 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008/
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS NORTH MO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ON MEMORIAL
DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

TPS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR AUDRAIN-KNOX-
     LEWIS-MARION-MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-
     PIKE IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
443 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-261200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
443 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

THIS HAZARDOUSWEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSBILE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER SATURATED SOILS
WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE ON
MEMORIAL DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. IT IS LIKELY A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON
MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1104 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FLINT HILL              38.85N  90.86W
05/25/2008  M5.00 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 INCH RAIN GAUGE IS OVERFLOWING

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00170

FGLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1119 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 PM     FLOOD            PORTAGE DES SIOUX       38.92N  90.34W
05/25/2008                   ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER THE ROAD AT HIGHWAY 94 AND ROUTE J...DEPTH
            UNKNOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00171

FGLASS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1144 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 PM     HAIL             SALEM                   38.63N  88.95W
05/25/2008  M0.88 INCH       MARION             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER 00172

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1204 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BOULDER                 38.70N  89.22W
05/25/2008                   CLINTON            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 3 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00173

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1248 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MONTGOMERY CITY         38.98N  91.51W
05/26/2008                   MONTGOMERY         MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER RESCUE ON HIGHWAY Y 2 MILES EAST OF HIGHWAY 19

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00174

TRUETT