Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
831 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

.UPDATE...
TO ADJUST POPS FOR CURRENT RAINFALL AREA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS SW LA AS LINEAR MCS
PROPAGATES SLOWLY SE INTO HIGH PW AIRMASS OF 2.0-2.5 INCHES...WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND HIGH CAPE. SEVERE THREAT HAS
DIMINISHED DUE TO WEAKENING SHEAR...BUT SPC MESO ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW RATHER HIGH INFLOW MOISTURE/CAPE JUST OFF THE COAST. NOTE THE
79F DEW POINT AT KLCH.  CURRENT FFWS ADDRESS ECHO TRAINING AREAS
WHERE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL PERSIST NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
STRATIFORM AREA SHOULD PERSIST IN OUR NW COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME DECREASE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERN FOR
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AND COASTAL
AREAS AS CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFT SE. THE COLD
FRONT MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT LACK OF HEATING
SHOULD LIMIT INTENSE CONVECTION.
&&

.AVIATION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON
MS/

RAIN REMAINED WEST OF LFT/ARA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
BPT/LCH/AEX FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN WORSENING
CONDITIONS IN THE TEMPO GROUPS AND GO WITH -SHRA VCTS IN THE
PREVAILING GROUPS. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ADD -SHRA VCTS TO LFT/ARA FOR THE LATE MORNING TO
LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL HANG ON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP SKIES BKN/OVC...BUT LIKELY KEEP CEILINGS
ABOVE 3KFT AFTER 6Z. CEILINGS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO
BOUNCE AROUND. THERE ARE SEVERAL LAYERS OUT THERE...SCT-BKN AROUND
10-15...18-22 AND A HIGHER DECK. WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MID LEVEL
CEILINGS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. WINDS WERE FROM 10 TO 20 WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDSPEEDS SHOULD BE DOWN TO 10KTS BY 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS/

DISCUSSION...
AS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CIRCULATION OF IKE IS MOVING ACROSS NRN
AR...SRN PERIPHERY BANDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SE TX AND SW LA.
IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
THROUGH EARLY MON. HOWEVER...MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOWER TO
MOVE ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE U.S. AS THE LOW FROM IKE
CONTINUES NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH
MAIN UPPER HIGH NOT SPREADING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. TILL WHAT LOOKS
LIKE TUE. THIS WILL KEEP US FROM INITIALLY GETTING NWRLY FLOW
ACROSS SE TX/SW LA. AS WELL...WILL NEED TO KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES
AROUND TO ACCOMMODATE THIS LAGGING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW WHICH COULD HELP SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT.

BY FRI...SFC HIGH SHOULD SHIFT NE ACROSS U.S. ALLOWING FOR RETURN
GULF MOISTURE TO INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION AND ENOUGH SO TO
POSSIBLE SQUEEZE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY FIRST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THEN SPREADING INLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

AS FOR MARINE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
OUTER COASTAL ZONES THROUGH ONLY MID MORNING GIVING A LITTLE
FURTHER ALLOWANCE FOR RECEDING LEVELS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AS TIDE LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE CRITERIA
AND EXPECTED TO TAKE A LITTLE TIME AS WELL TO RECEDE.
&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
     LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

KULA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
527 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-151030-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
527 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS THE REMNANTS OF IKE MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE RISK FOR A
FEW BRIEF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
WESTERN LOUISIANA COAST. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LINGERING OUTER RAIN BANDS OF IKE. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR. AVOID HIGH
WATERS. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
DAY ALSO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE MORNING.