Severe Thunderstorm Warning 774, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE WILL LIFT NEWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
DEEP FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL LIE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
AND REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHING THAT WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA IMMEDIATELY TO THE REAR OF IKE. 850 MB SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS TO STALL OVER
SWRN ZONES TODAY AND TONIGHT NI A REGION OF RICH 850 MB THETAE AND
HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS. MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
OF UPPER DYNAMICS AS A STRONG UPPER JET DROPS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY FROM THE WEST AND A SMALLER JET CORE PUSHES WWD ACROSS THE NRN
GULF. GFS INTENSITY SUGGESTS FEEDBACK BY THAT MODEL BUT BOTH EURO AND
SPC WRF MAINTAIN HEALTHY QPF SWRN ZONES OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FROM 2 TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO TONIGHT...MAINTAINING THE SAME AREA. HAVE
FOLLOWED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN WETTER TREND
THAT ADVERTISED BY MOS. HOWEVER HAVE FOLLOWED MOS TEMPS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND
GENERALLY DROP OFF BY LATE MORNING. A NARROW AREA OF MARGINAL SHEAR
PERSISTS OVER ERN ZONES BUT THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD GENERALLY END BY
NOON FOR THE ARKLAMISS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ITSELF IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO LET THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AS ADVERTISED. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NW LATE TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST INTO THE
MID 60S EXTREME NW MS BY 15/00Z AND FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO
60S RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. /03/

FOR MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOC
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
BOOSTED POPS ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO
BE SLOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE GFS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL
RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH BECOMING POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND BRING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NEXT WEEKEND...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER
THE NRN GULF THIS WEEK...AND THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE BOUNDARY/MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...WILL SEE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
WITH BKN-OVC BASES FROM 2-3 THOUSAND FT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TSTMS. SLY WIND
FROM 15-25 MPH WILL PERSIST OVER NWRN ZONES WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND SETTLE TO 10-15 MPH BY
NOON. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER NORTHWEST ZONES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SEEP IN. /03/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>027-034>036-040-041.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MSZ034-040-041-047-
     053-059>061.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ042-047.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ007>009.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ015-016-
     023-025.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

03/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
615 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

MSZ029>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-151130-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
615 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AS IKE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO DROP A QUICK ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053-054-059>062-151130-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
615 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS IKE
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A
RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. ALSO...STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL
PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
710 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOLLANDALE              33.17N 90.85W
09/14/2008                   WASHINGTON         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOCAL POLICE REPORT 1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER FLOODING A FEW
            OF THE ROADS IN TOWN.

&&

BRYANT