Flash Flood Warning 129, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 141649
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1149 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

MSC015-051-141745-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0129.000000T0000Z-080914T1745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CARROLL MS-HOLMES MS-
1149 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CDT FOR
HOLMES AND CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 1144 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR 
TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE RAINFALL WILL BECOME LIGHTER BY 1230 PM AND 
THE WARING SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THE SCHEDULED TIME.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO COILA AND
SEVEN PINES

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3345 8978 3343 8979 3343 8976 3330 8965
      3329 8969 3328 8971 3308 9032 3326 9033
      3352 8985

$$

WILKINSON

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 141727
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1227 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

MSC015-051-141737-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0129.000000T0000Z-080914T1745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CARROLL MS-HOLMES MS-
1227 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR HOLMES AND CARROLL
COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3345 8978 3343 8979 3343 8976 3330 8965
      3329 8969 3328 8971 3308 9032 3326 9033
      3352 8985

$$

ERA

WILKINSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1014 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND NO MAJOR ADJ
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE NW CWA THIS MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF IKE LIFT NE
RAPIDLY. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND TO THE E OF THIS PRE-FRONTAL FEATURE
IS EXTREMELY MOIST. INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT...BUT AS WARMING
CONTINUES...THE AIRMASS WILL STEADILY DESTABILIZE. THE FOCUS NOW IS
ON LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE LINEAR BANDS OF CONVECTION EVOLVE AND
MERGE WITH OTHER SHOWERS. THIS AIRMASS IS A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCER WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR PRETTY STOUT RAINFALL
RATES...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT CAN CONVECT. I EXPECT THE SLIGHT DOWN
TURN IN CONVECTION TO INCREASE AGAIN IN A FEW HOURS AS HEATING
COMBINES WITH SOME MESOSCALE FEATURES AND AN INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT
UPPER JET. WITH THAT...WE HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FURTHER EAST TO COVER CURRENT TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED AREAS OF NEW
HEAVY PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WATCH MAY CHANGE AGAIN IN A
FEW HOURS BASED ON NEWER DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.

AS FOR THE SVR/TOR POTENTIAL...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES
LESSEN...THUS THE RISK FOR TORNADOES AND SVR WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THE TORNADO WATCH FROM THIS MORNING HAS
EXPIRED AND A NEW ONE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WE STILL MAY SEE A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND ISO SVR STORM WITH DMG WINDS. WE WILL UPDATE THE
HWO TO SHOW THE CURRENT THREATS. MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING RISK
NOW.  /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT TO
AROUND 3-4 KFT THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT
STILL EXPECT PERIODS OF LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY.  SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY HAS NEARLY SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF GLH
SO THIS SITE SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY.  GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN FOR SOME LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS.  CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION AND DRIER AIR SEEPS INTO THE REGION./14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  66  79  59 /  82  59  25  13
MERIDIAN      85  67  79  58 /  81  71  30  13
VICKSBURG     83  65  80  57 /  81  44  20  14
HATTIESBURG   86  71  81  61 /  73  70  36  10
NATCHEZ       82  63  77  58 /  83  57  23   7
GREENVILLE    83  61  80  56 /  57  26  10  13
GREENWOOD     82  61  78  56 /  77  33  14  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MSZ027>030-032>038-
     040>045-047>050-053>055-059>063.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR LAZ008-009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM: CME
AVIATION: 14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1006 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

MSZ027>033-036>039-044>046-151515-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-
ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
1006 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IKE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MILES PER HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IS
NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.

LAZ008-009-015-016-023>026-MSZ035-040>043-047>066-072>074-151515-
WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
1006 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IKE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IS
NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-151515-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
WASHINGTON-
1006 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
710 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOLLANDALE              33.17N 90.85W
09/14/2008                   WASHINGTON         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOCAL POLICE REPORT 1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER FLOODING A FEW
            OF THE ROADS IN TOWN.

&&

BRYANT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
957 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

LAZ024-026-141555-
CATAHOULA LA-CONCORDIA LA-
957 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO LARTO LAKE AREA...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS WER LOCATED
FROM LARTO TO NEW ERA AT 957 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
HEAVY RAINS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE LIKELY FOR THE LARTO LAKE AREA
INTO MAYNA AND MONTEREY THROUGH 1030 AM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CONCORDIA AND SOUTHERN CATAHOULA PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1028 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BELZONI                 33.18N 90.49W
09/14/2008                   HUMPHREYS          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COVERED WALK WAY BLOWN APART AT IDA GREEN ELEMENTARY.

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BELZONI                 33.18N 90.49W
09/14/2008                   HUMPHREYS          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL RDS WITH WATER FLOWING ACROSS THEM IN AND AROUND
            BELZONI...NOT A MAJOR ISSUE AT THIS TIME.

&&

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

LAZ016-MSZ040>042-047-141630-
WARREN MS-SHARKEY MS-ISSAQUENA MS-YAZOO MS-MADISON LA-
1030 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS MOVING
   INTO LOWER DELTA REGION...

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 MPH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WAS CENTERED OVER EAGLE BEND AT
1030 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY AS THESE
STORMS CROSS VALLEY PARK...FITLER...HOLLY BLUFF AND YAZOO CITY
THROUGH 1130 AM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN YAZOO...SOUTHEASTERN ISSAQUENA...SOUTHERN SHARKEY AND
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTIES...AND NORTHEASTERN MADISON PARISH SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

40