Flash Flood Warning 124, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 141041
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
541 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

ARC017-LAC035-123-MSC151-141130-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0124.000000T0000Z-080914T1130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHICOT AR-WEST CARROLL LA-EAST CARROLL LA-WASHINGTON MS-
541 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 AM CDT FOR
WASHINGTON AND CHICOT COUNTIES...AND EAST CARROLL AND WEST CARROLL
PARISHES...

AT 529 AM CDT...THE INITIAL BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS AND EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. 
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST 
LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE WARNED AREA BEFORE 6 AM.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO METCALFE

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 
630 AM. THESE AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN ADDITION TO THE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF 
RAIN WHICH HAVE FALLEN SINCE 330 AM. 

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3276 9158 3279 9159 3286 9156 3290 9148
      3298 9143 3319 9135 3354 9102 3354 9076
      3326 9079 3303 9115 3293 9122 3269 9153
      3269 9162 3273 9162

$$

BYB

000 
WGUS54 KJAN 141125
FFWJAN
ARC017-LAC035-123-MSC151-141300-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FF.W.0124.000000T0000Z-080914T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
625 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EAST CARROLL PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
  WEST CARROLL PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...AVON...LELAND...GREENVILLE...
  CHICOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF EUDORA...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 615 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED   
  POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING FROM A REPEATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY     
  MOVING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CHICOT
  JUNCTION...TRIBBETT...WAYSIDE...ESTILL AND METCALFE

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
WARNED AREA. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE 2 TO 4 INCHES THAT HAVE 
ALREADY FALLEN THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3276 9158 3279 9159 3286 9156 3290 9148
      3298 9143 3319 9135 3354 9102 3354 9076
      3326 9079 3303 9115 3293 9122 3269 9153
      3269 9162 3273 9162

$$

BYB

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 141221
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
721 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

ARC017-LAC035-123-MSC151-141300-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0124.000000T0000Z-080914T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHICOT AR-WEST CARROLL LA-EAST CARROLL LA-WASHINGTON MS-
721 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR
WASHINGTON AND CHICOT COUNTIES...AND EAST CARROLL AND WEST CARROLL
PARISHES...

AT 710 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLOODED
ROADWAYS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AS A RESULT OF 
RECENT HEAVY RAINS. RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST AT LEAST 3 TO 4 INCHES 
OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE 4 AM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. 
MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF THE WARNED 
AREA...BUT HIGH WATER SITUATIONS MAY REMAIN THROUGH 8 AM WITH SOME 
SMALL CREEKS AND RUNOFF AREAS NOT LOWERING IN WATER LEVELS UNTIL 
THAT TIME AS WELL. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CHICOT
JUNCTION...TRIBBETT...WAYSIDE...ESTILL...AVON...EUDORA AND LELAND

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3276 9158 3279 9159 3285 9156 3290 9148
      3298 9143 3319 9135 3354 9076 3326 9079
      3303 9115 3293 9122 3269 9153 3269 9162

$$

BYB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE WILL LIFT NEWD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
DEEP FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL LIE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
AND REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF LOW LEVEL TROUGHING THAT WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA IMMEDIATELY TO THE REAR OF IKE. 850 MB SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS TO STALL OVER
SWRN ZONES TODAY AND TONIGHT NI A REGION OF RICH 850 MB THETAE AND
HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS. MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
OF UPPER DYNAMICS AS A STRONG UPPER JET DROPS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY FROM THE WEST AND A SMALLER JET CORE PUSHES WWD ACROSS THE NRN
GULF. GFS INTENSITY SUGGESTS FEEDBACK BY THAT MODEL BUT BOTH EURO AND
SPC WRF MAINTAIN HEALTHY QPF SWRN ZONES OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FROM 2 TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO TONIGHT...MAINTAINING THE SAME AREA. HAVE
FOLLOWED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN WETTER TREND
THAT ADVERTISED BY MOS. HOWEVER HAVE FOLLOWED MOS TEMPS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND
GENERALLY DROP OFF BY LATE MORNING. A NARROW AREA OF MARGINAL SHEAR
PERSISTS OVER ERN ZONES BUT THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD GENERALLY END BY
NOON FOR THE ARKLAMISS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ITSELF IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING...MORE THAN ENOUGH TO LET THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AS ADVERTISED. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NW LATE TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST INTO THE
MID 60S EXTREME NW MS BY 15/00Z AND FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO
60S RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. /03/

FOR MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOC
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
BOOSTED POPS ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO
BE SLOWER THAN DEPICTED BY THE GFS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF OPERATIONAL
RUNS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE
COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH BECOMING POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD AND BRING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NEXT WEEKEND...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER
THE NRN GULF THIS WEEK...AND THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE BOUNDARY/MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...WILL SEE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
WITH BKN-OVC BASES FROM 2-3 THOUSAND FT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TSTMS. SLY WIND
FROM 15-25 MPH WILL PERSIST OVER NWRN ZONES WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WIND
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND SETTLE TO 10-15 MPH BY
NOON. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER NORTHWEST ZONES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SEEP IN. /03/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>027-034>036-040-041.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MSZ034-040-041-047-
     053-059>061.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ042-047.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ007>009.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ015-016-
     023-025.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

03/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
819 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

MSZ029>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-150130-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
819 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS IKE MOVES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SHOULD DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE REMNANTS OF
IKE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO DROP A
QUICK ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN PROBLEMS WITH PONDING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053-054-059>062-150130-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
819 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND WEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS IKE MOVES ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST AREAS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM IKE MOVE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR
WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK AREAS...ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EAST SIDE OF
IKE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
55 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. THESE BANDS COULD REMAIN RATHER STATIONARY
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...PRODUCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2
AND 4 INCHES. WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...THIS RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

03