Severe Thunderstorm Warning 768, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...A SHIELD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST FORCING FOR
THIS ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO SRN ZONES AS THE TRACK OF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TRACK THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF LETTING UP OVER SWRN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WAS TRACKING
THROUGH EAST TX WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT OVER SRN ZONES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES AS THE SURFACE/850 MB LOW CENTER TRACK IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER THE BETTER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST AND
WILL BE LIMITED TO SERN ZONES BY SUNSET. RAINFALL HAS BEGUN TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER SWRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED FOR SRN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT
DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING CONVECTION AS THE LOW AND THE
SHORTWAVE WORK EWD.

NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SYSTEM
AND THE AIR MASS DRIES RAPIDLY FROM THE N. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP QUICKLY WITH VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES OVER
EXTREME SERN ZONES BY NOON. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING
TO DROP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE SERN AREAS...SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING
MOS. ALSO UNDERCUT MOS HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE NOTICEABLE WARMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BUT SATURATED SOILS SHOULD HAMPER AFTERNOON HEATING SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY AND BEYOND...THE PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER MAY
LAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. WITH THE DRIER WEATHER WILL COME HOTTER AFTERNOONS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL SEND THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUR WAY THIS
WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH THIS TROUGH WILL DIG WITH
SOME SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL CUT OFF BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA THUS DELAYING EFFECTS ON OUR WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND IN ANY CASE...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT MORE
HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION IF THE TROUGH
MANAGES TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BEFORE SLOWING DOWN. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A RESULT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  SOME BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVIER ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED.  THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE NW THIS EVENING. VFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NW TONIGHT BUT AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR PATCHES OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY WED AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  88  62  92 /  58   6   6   7
MERIDIAN      70  86  61  90 /  72   8   8   8
VICKSBURG     69  89  64  93 /  45   5   5   7
HATTIESBURG   73  88  65  91 /  75  21  11   5
NATCHEZ       71  86  64  92 /  52  10   6   3
GREENVILLE    66  89  62  93 /  21   3   4   6
GREENWOOD     65  89  64  92 /  33   3   5   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MSZ053>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LAZ024>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

03/19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
259 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

MSZ054>058-062>066-072>074-132000-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
259 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
QUITMAN TO RALEIGH TO HAZELHURST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING WILL ENHANCE WIND SHEAR...CREATING AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

IN ADDITION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS SAME
AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING
THIS EVENING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
QUITMAN TO RALEIGH TO HAZELHURST. HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURING OVER
THIS AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST OVER THE AREA ALONG A
STALLED FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>053-059>061-
132000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
259 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY AUGUST 18TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
115 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NE UNION CHURCH       31.71N 90.75W
08/12/2008                   JEFFERSON          MS   PUBLIC

            WATER ON NUMEROUS ROADS AROUND THE PLEASANT HILL AREA

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
226 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W HAZLEHURST          31.86N 90.44W
08/12/2008                   COPIAH             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW RDS W OF TOWN HAD WATER FLOWING ACROSS THEM.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1204 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UNION CHURCH            31.68N 90.79W
08/12/2008                   JEFFERSON          MS   POST OFFICE

            TREE DOWN ON LUCKY HOLLOW ROAD JUST OUTSIDE OF UNION
            CHURCH.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
323 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE ARM               31.49N 90.01W
08/12/2008                   LAWRENCE           MS   POST OFFICE

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE AND NUMEROUS LIMBS DOWN ALONG
            HWY 43

0200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HAMBURG                 33.23N 91.80W
08/12/2008  M10.00 INCH      ASHLEY             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

AG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HAMBURG                 33.23N 91.80W
08/12/2008  M10.00 INCH      ASHLEY             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE 2 DAY EVENT

&&

AG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

MSZ073-074-122050-
FORREST MS-LAMAR MS-
341 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF BAXTERVILLE AT 341
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN LAMAR AND CENTRAL FORREST COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN FORREST
AND NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTIES AS SEVERE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

AEG