Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 121339
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
839 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

MSC051-053-055-125-151-163-121445-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0073.000000T0000Z-080812T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WASHINGTON MS-HOLMES MS-HUMPHREYS MS-SHARKEY MS-ISSAQUENA MS-YAZOO MS-
839 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT FOR
YAZOO...ISSAQUENA...SHARKEY...HUMPHREYS...HOLMES AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

AT 833 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WAYSIDE...
MURPHY...DARLOVE...ESTILL...AVON...MIDNIGHT...THORNTON...HOWARD...
TOLARVILLE...BROZVILLE...FRANKLIN...BOWLING GREEN...MCMILLAN...DELTA
CITY...PANTHER BURN...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...ISOLA...HOLLANDALE...
DURANT AND BELZONI

SINCE 4 AM...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
WARNED AREA. A FEW AREAS HAVE EXPERIENCED SOME FLOODED 
ROADS...MAINLY ACROSS ISSAQUENA AND YAZOO COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3333 9076 3328 9076 3331 9054 3321 8975
      3274 9005 3267 9019 3266 9114 3272 9106
      3277 9116 3297 9108 3298 9109 3291 9115
      3290 9116 3290 9118 3307 9112 3315 9119
      3313 9111 3327 9104 3327 9112 3337 9112

$$

CME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS ARKANSAS
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE
WARM FRONT IS PUSHING NORTH ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND PUSH EAST AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER WEST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY NOON TODAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 2.3
INCHES PLUS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALREADY IN AFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-20 AND SOUTH OF HWY 82 CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT TODAY WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A RISK THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
MODELS INDICATE 40-50KTS OF 850MB FLOW OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL TODAY WITH
ML CAPES OF 400-1000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES OF 5 TO 5.5 C/KM...STRONG
LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW TORNADOES OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. SEVERE PARAMETERS ALSO
INDICATE THIS...SO WILL KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF TORNADOES IN THE HWO.

THE GFS/EURO DIVERGE A BIT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ON THE TIMING OF
THE LOW AND CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA WITH THE EURO BEING A
LITTLE SLOWER. THE GFS HAS SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE AREA AND THE
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNTIL EVERYTHING SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA BY THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS.

STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID BUMP POPS UP TO
100 ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. STUCK WITH TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /15/

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL COMMENCE
WEDNESDAY AND MAY LAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH THE DRIER WEATHER WILL COME HOTTER
AFTERNOONS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SEND THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUR WAY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW MUCH THIS
TROUGH WILL DIG WITH SOME SOLUTIONS INDICATING THE TROUGH WILL CUT
OFF BEFORE REACHING THE AREA THUS DELAYING EFFECTS ON OUR WEATHER.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND IN ANY CASE...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL THAT MORE HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION IF THE TROUGH MANAGES TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BEFORE SLOWING
DOWN. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KICKING OFF THE CONVECTION PUSHES TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA. /15/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>060.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

EC/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
543 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>054-059-060-
131045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
543 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ACME TO NATCHEZ TO QUITMAN. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE EAST TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS OVER LOUISIANA AND MOVES EAST ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL EXTEND GENERALLY ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO DEVELOP TODAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD BE GREATEST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...THEN
DECREASE THIS EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA TODAY
WILL ENHANCE WIND SHEAR CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

MSZ055>058-061>066-072>074-131045-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
543 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL DEVELOP TODAY. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE GREATEST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...THEN
DECREASE THIS EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA TODAY
WILL ENHANCE WIND SHEAR CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 AM     HEAVY RAIN       YAZOO CITY              32.86N 90.41W
08/12/2008  E0.00 INCH       YAZOO              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STREET FLOODING REPORTED BY YAZOO CITY PD

&&

EC