Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 120944
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
444 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

LAC035-MSC051-053-055-125-151-163-121045-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0071.000000T0000Z-080812T1045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EAST CARROLL LA-WASHINGTON MS-HOLMES MS-HUMPHREYS MS-SHARKEY MS-
ISSAQUENA MS-YAZOO MS-
444 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 AM CDT FOR
YAZOO...ISSAQUENA...SHARKEY...HUMPHREYS...HOLMES AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...AND EAST CARROLL PARISH...

AT 438 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS 
THE WARNED AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OF TWO TO THREE INCHES WILL 
BE POSSIBLE AS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST 
ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA MOVE EAST INTO THE WARNED AREA. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WAYSIDE...
DARLOVE...ESTILL...AVON...BOWLING GREEN...TCHULA...ISOLA...HOLLANDALE
AND BELZONI

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3333 9076 3328 9076 3328 9055 3331 9055
      3329 9045 3324 9041 3328 9036 3321 8976
      3275 9004 3267 9019 3268 9121 3301 9117
      3305 9112 3314 9116 3315 9109 3322 9109
      3327 9104 3329 9108 3327 9112 3337 9112

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
945 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2008

.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
DESPITE THE WARM FRONT BEING SOUTH...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE RUNNING
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE WHOLE CWFA. WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT...HAVE RAISED FORECAST
MIN TEMPS IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES SEVERAL DEGREES. THE REMAINDER OF
AREA LOOKED ON TRACK. THE 00Z JAN SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PW OF 2.34
INCHES WHICH WAS CONSIDERABLE MOISTER THAN THE NAM/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED. RAINFALL REPORTS WERE RUNNING HIGHER THAN THE
LOCAL RADAR SUGGESTED AND WITH OUR TROPICAL AIRMASS...CONSIDERED
SWITCHING OVER TO A TROPICAL Z/R RELATIONSHIP. WL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
AS MAINLY COVERAGE OF LIGHTER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED UNTIL TOWARD
MORNING INTO TUESDAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND TRACK
INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING. WL LEAVE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN POSTED. /22/
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  SURFACE
ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW STILL CENTERED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL TX/SOUTH CENTRAL OK...WITH THE WARM FRONT DRAPED
SOUTHEAST INTO SE MS.  SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRAPED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
DECAYING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SHOULD GIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA REMAINING ON THE DRY SIDE.

BY THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO DRIFT NORTH FURTHER INTO THE CWFA AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN
TO TRACK EAST.  THE UPPER SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE
AREA AS WELL.  BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
POSITIONED ALONG OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH
THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS THAT IS IN PLACE WITH PWATS AROUND 2.3
INCHES OVER THE CWFA...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WET DAY FOR THE
REGION...WITH POSSIBLY THE WETTEST CONDITIONS WE HAVE SEEN WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THERE WILL BE EVEN MORE SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
TO WORK WITH. IT IS ALONG THE WARM FRONT...OR ALONG INTERSTATE 20
AND NORTH THAT THE BEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.  THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO GET RAIN...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA AND THIS AREA HAS NOT RECEIVED AS MUCH IN
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS TO ENHANCE THE PROBLEM.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS PRETTY MUCH ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 20 AND NORTH.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THIS
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CWFA.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEEING LOW
TOP ROTATING STORMS IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HELICITY AVAILABLE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWFA DUE TO LACK OF INSOLATION WITH CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS. THEREFORE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW TORNADOES ALSO BEING POSSIBLE. HAIL
SHOULD NOT BE TOO BIG OF A PROBLEM.  THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY
84 CORRIDOR WHERE RAIN WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AND THIS AREA WILL
BE ABLE TO SEE A BIT MORE DESTABILIZATION.  OVERALL THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SEVERE STORMS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE
AFTERNOON HWO...AS WELL AS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

OVERALL REMAINED RATHER CLOSE TO GUI FOR POPS AND TEMPS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.  FOR TUESDAY WENT AHEAD AND RAISED POPS TO AROUND 100
PERCENT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES...GUI VALUES LOOKED REASONABLE.
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA.  THE CWFA WILL SEE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS WELL WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE ARKLAMISS
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO DIP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FOR
A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWFA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE
AREA.  BY THIS POINT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND
ONLY THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS. HAVE REMAINED
RATHER CLOSE TO GUI FOR WEDNESDAY FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES./14/

LONG TERM...CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM MID WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACH
EXPECTED BY NEXT SATURDAY. VERY MOIST AIR WILL STILL BE LURKING
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA...AND FORCING WITH THE NEXT TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNUSUALLY STRONG ONCE AGAIN...SO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED...ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 8Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH 8Z AS WELL...THEN MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST SITES AND LAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST TOWARD MORNING AND COMBINE WITH A WARM FRONT TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND ON TUESDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  80  70  87 /  83 100  61  11
MERIDIAN      71  79  69  86 /  72 100  79  20
VICKSBURG     70  81  70  91 /  92 100  48   8
HATTIESBURG   71  82  71  87 /  63  86  75  29
NATCHEZ       72  81  69  88 /  81  97  46   9
GREENVILLE    70  78  64  89 /  92  94  29   7
GREENWOOD     68  78  66  88 /  68  95  37   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR MSZ018-019-025>054.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

14/EC/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
313 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2008

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>054-122015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
313 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO TO
CRYSTAL SPRINGS TO MERIDIAN.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ZONES IN THE CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE WIND SHEAR THAT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND TORNADOES. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD
SUNRISE TUESDAY WILL ALSO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LAZ024-026-MSZ055>066-072>074-122015-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
313 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ZONES IN
THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE WIND SHEAR THAT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND TORNADOES. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD
SUNRISE TUESDAY WILL ALSO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

03