River Flood Warning 100, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
715 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.SHORT TERM...
WAVE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTING NE ALONG STNRY FRONT THIS
MORNING. WARM FRONT DVLPG FROM THE LOW OVER IA TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH BACKING/INCRSG LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL/IN ATTM. STRONG SHEAR OVER THE
AREA AND LOW LCL/S SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH THESE
STORMS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
ALSO EFFECTIVE RAIN PROCESS WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND TROPICAL
AIRMASS ALONG WITH SMALL MBE VECTORS SUGGESTS THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THUS...TORNADO WATCH ISSUED BY SPC EARLIER... AND FLOOD
WATCH EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE TODAY PERIOD. BY MID AFTN CWA SHOULD
BREAK INTO WARM SECTOR ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER
DESTABILIZATION WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED STORMS.
HWVR...LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF FORCING BY THAT TIME. GIVEN
CONTINUED STRONG SHEAR AND LOW LCLS AND POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS TO
POP UP DURING PEAK HEATING CONTD TO MENTION CHC SVR STORMS THROUGH
THE AFTN.

TONIGHT THE CDFNT WILL SAG SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF LOW
LIFTING INTO THE UPR GRTLKS. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVEMENT/TRANSITION OF HURRICANE
IKE TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND PREFERRED OVER WEAKER/SLOWER
NAM SOLUTION. THUS EXPECT FRONT TO STALL FROM WRN LAKE ERIE TO
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH REMNANTS OF IKE MOVG RAPIDLY NE ALONG IT
CAUSING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY. CONTD FLOOD WATCH
FOR NW PORTION OF CWA WHERE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
CONTS. AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF AREA SUNDAY NIGHT RAINFALL SHOULD END
FROM W-E OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SFC RIDING IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
ROCKIES RIDGE. NOT MANY SIGNALS TO LOCK ONTO TO WARRANT ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. COOL START WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEK
BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL HAVE MERGED WITH IKE/S
REMNANTS. FAST SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES IN THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WILL ADVECT EAST...AND ALLOW SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY LOCALLY. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE TREND
OF TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK ON...AS FORECAST MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE EAST PER AN ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW. THERE IS SOME INDICATION BY THE ECMWF/A
FEW GEFS MEMBERS/AND THE GFS THAT A CUT OFF LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN US AND POSSIBLY MEANDER NORTH BY LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE PER PERIOD AND TYPE OF SYSTEM...WILL KEEP THE STATUS
QUO.

HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MONDAY PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
CONSENSUS OF H85 TEMPS...AND GIVEN EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD....FAVORING COOL NIGHTS AND
DECENT DIURNAL SWINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTG TO MOVE ACROSS FAR NRN INDIANA AHD OF WARM
FRONT. APPEARS BULK OF ACTIVITY IS LIFTING NORTH OF FWA ATTM AND
EXPECT WITH FRONT MOVG SLOWLY NORTH PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
AT SBN AFTER 15Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO NEAR VFR BY THEN. SCT
TSRA MAY REDEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AS AIRMASS WILL BE VERY MOIST
AND DESTABILIZING THIS AFTN...BUT EXPECTED LACK OF SGFNT FORCING IN
THIS AREA PRECLUDES MENTIONING ANYTHING MORE THAN CB IN TAF ATTM. AS
LOW MOVES INTO UPR GRTLKS TNGT CDFNT WILL SAG SE INTO NRN
INDIANA...WITH ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIKELY CAUSING TSRA
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OR PSBLY LOWER.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>017-020-
     022>024.

MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ001-002.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JT
LONG TERM...CHAMBERLAIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
447 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-140900-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
447 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008 /347 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 6.

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS AROUND 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY WITH HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS NORTH OF A PERU TO ANGOLA LINE. LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS MAY BE FLOODED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RIVER FLOODING
DEVELOPING ON OR BEYOND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-140900-
LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
447 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008 /347 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS AROUND 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY. LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY BE FLOODED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME RIVER FLOODING DEVELOPING ON OR BEYOND MONDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
822 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OTTAWA                  41.02N  84.04W
09/13/2008  M2.50 INCH       PUTNAM             OH   COCORAHS

            OVERNIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH 730 AM EDT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0801817

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
823 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     FLOOD            MICHIGAN CITY           41.71N  86.88W
09/13/2008                   LA PORTE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            US 25 AND 35 ARE BOTH CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0801818

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
825 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW SOUTH BEND         41.71N  86.32W
09/13/2008  M4.53 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   ASOS

            ASOS RECORDED 12 HOUR RAINFALL FROM 7 PM TO 7 AM EDT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0801819

BJS

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