Lakeshore Flood Statement 25, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
343 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

.SHORT TERM...
WAVE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTING NE ALONG STNRY FRONT THIS
MORNING. WARM FRONT DVLPG FROM THE LOW OVER IA TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH BACKING/INCRSG LOW LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL/IN ATTM. STRONG SHEAR OVER THE
AREA AND LOW LCL/S SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH THESE
STORMS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
ALSO EFFECTIVE RAIN PROCESS WITH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND TROPICAL
AIRMASS ALONG WITH SMALL MBE VECTORS SUGGESTS THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THUS...TORNADO WATCH ISSUED BY SPC EARLIER... AND FLOOD
WATCH EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE TODAY PERIOD. BY MID AFTN CWA SHOULD
BREAK INTO WARM SECTOR ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BETTER
DESTABILIZATION WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SFC BASED STORMS.
HWVR...LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF FORCING BY THAT TIME. GIVEN
CONTINUED STRONG SHEAR AND LOW LCLS AND POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSTMS TO
POP UP DURING PEAK HEATING CONTD TO MENTION CHC SVR STORMS THROUGH
THE AFTN.

TONIGHT THE CDFNT WILL SAG SE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF LOW
LIFTING INTO THE UPR GRTLKS. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVEMENT/TRANSITION OF HURRICANE
IKE TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND PREFERRED OVER WEAKER/SLOWER
NAM SOLUTION. THUS EXPECT FRONT TO STALL FROM WRN LAKE ERIE TO
CENTRAL INDIANA WITH REMNANTS OF IKE MOVG RAPIDLY NE ALONG IT
CAUSING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA SUNDAY. CONTD FLOOD WATCH
FOR NW PORTION OF CWA WHERE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
CONTS. AS SYSTEM LIFTS NE OF AREA SUNDAY NIGHT RAINFALL SHOULD END
FROM W-E OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SFC RIDING IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING
ROCKIES RIDGE. NOT MANY SIGNALS TO LOCK ONTO TO WARRANT ANY MAJOR
CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. COOL START WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEK
BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL HAVE MERGED WITH IKE/S
REMNANTS. FAST SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES IN THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WILL ADVECT EAST...AND ALLOW SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY LOCALLY. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE TREND
OF TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK ON...AS FORECAST MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE EAST PER AN ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE PAC NW. THERE IS SOME INDICATION BY THE ECMWF/A
FEW GEFS MEMBERS/AND THE GFS THAT A CUT OFF LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN US AND POSSIBLY MEANDER NORTH BY LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN
LOW CONFIDENCE PER PERIOD AND TYPE OF SYSTEM...WILL KEEP THE STATUS
QUO.

HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MONDAY PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
CONSENSUS OF H85 TEMPS...AND GIVEN EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD....FAVORING COOL NIGHTS AND
DECENT DIURNAL SWINGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 136 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008/

AVIATION...
STNRY FRONT REMAINS FM SRN MI-IA-KS THIS MORNING. PROFILER/VWP LOW
LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN BACKING/INCRSG PAST FEW HRS AS WAVE MOVG NE
AND INTENSIFYING ALONG FRONT OVER KS. THETA-E ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD TSTMS OVER NRN IL
ATTM WHICH SHOULD SPREAD NE ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING AS
WAVE CONTS TO MOVE NE. WITH MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE... EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCNL SHOWERS AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. LOOKS AS IF BEST FORCING
WILL OCCUR AT SBN AND WITH WIDESPREAD TSTMS ALREADY UPSTREAM ADDED
TSRA TO FCST OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST CB MENTION AT FWA. BRIEF PD IN
WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIFT TO
CIGS/VSBYS AND INCREASE IN SFC WINDS...HWVR CDFNT WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AS WAVE CONTS TO DEEPEN AND MOVE TO THE UPR GRTLKS.
WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY
QUICKLY DVLPG WITH ANY BREAKS THIS AFTN...EXPECT TSTMS WILL POP UP
IN THE WARM SECTOR SO CONTD CB MENTION THROUGH THE AFTN AND WITH
FRONT APCHG IN THE EVE...EXPECTING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR TSTMS ONCE AGAIN...THUS CONTD WITH CB THROUGH
THE EVE WITH MVFR CIGS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003>009-012>017-020-
     022>024.

MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ001-002.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JT
LONG TERM...CHAMBERLAIN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
308 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

INZ023>025-032-130745-
GRANT IN-HUNTINGTON IN-MIAMI IN-WABASH IN-
308 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 307 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF LA FONTAINE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PERU...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 42 MPH.

WINDS GUSTS TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WABASH...
  HUNTINGTON...
  LA FONTAINE...
  ANDREWS...
  SOMERSET...
  TREATY...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA. $$

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

INZ013-020-130745-
PULASKI IN-WHITE IN-
330 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 326 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WOLCOTT...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF RENSSELAER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 31 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MONON...LEE AND REYNOLDS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHERN INDIANA. $$

JC