Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS

WITH WARM FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA...ALONG WITH
MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMS AS AIRMASS RECOVERS...SCT
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. WILL START
OUT TAFS WITH CB MENTION. VFR CIGS LOOK TO BE THE RULE THRU THEN.

A TSRA COMPLEX LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA SOMETIME AFT 04Z. TIMING QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
SO KEPT THINGS SIMPLE WITH A VCTS MENTION. DEPENDING ON SKY COVER
BEFORE CONVECTION ARRIVES...VSBYS MAY DROP DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
MOIST ATMS. HAVE INDICATED THIS WITH A 5SM BR MENTION AT MOST SITES.

AFTER CONVECTION EXITS WED MORNING EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS...THEN THIS SHOULD MIX OUT TO VFR AFT 16Z OR SO. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WED AFTN...BUT TOO FAR OUT TO MENTION ATTM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON CHANCE OF TSRA AND
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.

AT 18Z A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS OVER THE IN/MI BORDER.
CENTRAL INDIANA WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAVE
LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING.  THERE WAS A SECOND BOUNDARY FROM NEAR HUF
TO CVG.  THESE BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER MCS IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER NE MISSOURI/NW ILLINIOS
AND TRACK RIGHT INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.  CURRENT BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING ANYHWERE WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ONLY AROUND
5-10 KTS ACCORDING TO ACARS DATA.  TIMING ARRIVAL OF THIS COMPLEX
WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT CLOSER TO 4-5AM.  PWATS ARE
1.5 TO 2.0 SO PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN.
WITH ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.  TEMPS OVERNIGHT WONT GET VERY COOL AND
WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY...BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND CENTRAL INDIANA NOT
INCLUDING ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM EARLIER MCS ACTIVITY.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WILL END
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AROUND 10AM.  THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR TSRA BUT SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED AT H7 TEMPS WARM TO 10-12C
ON WED. TEMPS WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW QUICKLY ANY PRECIP
AND CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA.  HAVE LEFT LOW 80S FOR NOW BUT
TEMPS COULD BE COOLER IF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL.

THURSDAY...FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN ON THURS AS THERE
IS LITTLE MODIFICATION TO THE CURRENT H5 PATTERN.  EVEN THOUGH H85
TEMPS INCREASE TO 18-19C WITH A VERY SATURATED WET GROUND HAVE
TROUBLE BELIEVING THAT WE WILL REACH 90 DEGREES ANYWHERE IN THE CWA
SO HAVE CUT TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S.  THERE COULD BE SOME
ADDITIONAL TSRA ACTIVITY ON THURS BECAUSE NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH SO WILL NOT CHANGE
POPS AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL PROVIDE A CHANGE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY.  TODAYS MODEL RUNS SEEM TO BE FARTHER
NORTH WITH THE H5 TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WHICH WILL DELAY TSRA
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.  HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE
12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS SLOWER TREND THEN LEFT
LOW CHANCE POPS IN FRI AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WHATS LEFT OF THE H5 TROF/SFC LOW
MAKES IT TO CENTRAL INDIANA.  HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
SATURDAY.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FRO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED TSRA ON SUN/MON BUT THIS FAR OUT ITS A VERY LOW CHANCE
TO MENTION WITH SUCH HIGH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 10AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AVIATION...CS
PUBLIC...SALLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
508 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

INZ021-030-031-036>042-045>049-052>057-061>065-068>072-042115-
CARROLL-CLINTON-HOWARD-MONTGOMERY-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-
DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-CLAY-OWEN-
MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
508 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

REMEMBER THAT DEADLY LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
THEN. REMEMBER THAT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A
THREAT IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ028-029-035-043-044-051-060-067-042115-
WARREN-TIPPECANOE-FOUNTAIN-VERMILLION-PARKE-VIGO-SULLIVAN-KNOX-
508 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AND FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

REMEMBER THAT DEADLY LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

LOWLAND FLOODING ON THE WABASH RIVER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SEE THE
LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
THEN. REMEMBER THAT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A
THREAT IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.

LOWLAND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER THROUGH MID
WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

HAINES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N COLUMBUS              39.21N 85.91W
06/03/2008                   BARTHOLOMEW        IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAMAGE WAS REPORTED SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT NEAR ROCKY FORD
            ROAD. POWERLINES WERE DOWN AND ROOFS WERE OFF BUILDINGS.

&&

ABROOKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE MARTINSVILLE       39.48N 86.34W
06/03/2008                   MORGAN             IN   PUBLIC

            ROOF DAMANGE AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN A FEW MILES SOUTH OF
            WAVERLY NEAR STATE ROAD 37 AND BIG BEND ROAD.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
509 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DANA                    39.81N 87.49W
06/03/2008                   VERMILLION         IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER WAS GOING OVER STATE ROAD 71 THROUGH DANA. EAST OF
            DANA ON COUNTY ROAD 450 SOUTH WATER WAS OVER THE ROAD.

1015 AM     FLASH FLOOD      S CLINTON               39.66N 87.41W
06/03/2008                   VERMILLION         IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER WAS OVER SOUTH MAIN STREET IN CLINTON

1015 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W DANA                39.81N 87.51W
06/03/2008                   VERMILLION         IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY ROAD 500 SOUTH WAS WASHED OUT

1020 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW MECCA              39.75N 87.36W
06/03/2008                   PARKE              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY ROAD 600 WEST WAS CLOSED NORTHWEST OF MECCA

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENCASTLE             39.64N 86.84W
06/03/2008                   PUTNAM             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER WAS FLOODING ROADS AND INTERSECTIONS IN GREENCASTLE

1125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S BLOOMINGTON         39.11N 86.52W
06/03/2008                   MONROE             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN ON ZIKES ROAD

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SE BRAZIL             39.49N 87.08W
06/03/2008                   CLAY               IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER ACROSS ROADWAY ON COUNTY ROAD 200 EAST FROM COUNTY
            ROAD 600 NORTH TO 800 NORTH

1131 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE BLOOMFIELD         39.06N 86.90W
06/03/2008                   GREENE             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN. THERE WAS ALSO A BARN
            THAT WAS SEVERELY DAMAGED AND A HOUSE THAT SUSTAINED
            DAMAGE.

1146 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE BEDFORD           38.91N 86.46W
06/03/2008                   LAWRENCE           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ *** DAMAGE TO HOUSES AND TREES ON
            BARTLETTSVILLE ROAD AND TODD LANE. DAMAGE WAS ALSO
            REPORTED ON MOUNT PLEASANT ROAD AND WALLNER QUARRY ROAD.
            TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED ON HILL SMITH ROAD. ONE MALE WAS
            INJURED AND HAD A BROKEN FOOT.

1146 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 NNE BEDFORD           38.91N 86.46W
06/03/2008                   LAWRENCE           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE MARTINSVILLE       39.48N 86.34W
06/03/2008                   MORGAN             IN   PUBLIC

            ROOF DAMANGE AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN A FEW MILES SOUTH OF
            WAVERLY NEAR STATE ROAD 37 AND BIG BEND ROAD.

0242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N COLUMBUS              39.21N 85.91W
06/03/2008                   BARTHOLOMEW        IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAMAGE WAS REPORTED SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT NEAR ROCKY FORD
            ROAD. POWERLINES WERE DOWN AND ROOFS WERE OFF BUILDINGS.

&&

JNIELD