Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1131 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1012 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE CONTINUING
TO TRANSPORT UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE INSTABILITY
WILL NOT BE VERY GOOD...THE STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS THE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE CHANGES
AT THIS TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES WILL
INCREASE AROUND MIDDAY.

BAK
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1130 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL FROPA...WITH
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT.

BAK
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED FOR FULTON AND KNOX COUNTIES
AS VISIBILITIES HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS MORNING.

00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS WEEKEND AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXITING EAST INTO INDIANA BY MIDNIGHT.
FORECAST CONCERN IS FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND WIND ADVISORY TODAY
ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY. QUIETER WX IN STORE FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WED WITH ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A 999 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MN HAS A COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL IA INTO NW MO...SE KS AND CENTRAL OK WHERE 1000 MB LOW
PRESSURE. MODELS SWEEP STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS IL THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINS STILL LIKELY TODAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS FROM I-55 WEST TO ALONG THE IL RIVER WHERE
1.75 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ARE AROUND 1.50 INCHES...EXTREMELY HIGH FOR
LATE DEC. SPC ISSUED TORNADO WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IL NW OF
I-70 AND FROM CHAMPAIGN WESTWARD UNTIL 9 AM. THUNDERSTORMS RACING
NE NEAR 60 MPH WITH 60 KT SW LOW LEVEL JET. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINS NW OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE. CONVECTION
SHOULD OVERSPREAD REST OF CENTRAL IL DURING THIS MORNING AND MAY
NOT GET INTO SE IL BY THE WABASH RIVER UNTIL LATER TODAY. DECIDED
TO REMOVE SE COUNTIES OUT OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTING LESS RAINFALL OF 1 INCH
OR LESS AND NO SNOW/ICE MELT THERE. STRONG WIND FIELDS TODAY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT AND BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY FROM
I-55 EAST WHERE WIND ADVISORY ISSUED. WINDY OVER THE IL RIVER
VALLEY BUT APPEARS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME WITH
IS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH AND/OR WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR
STRONGER. SPC PUSHED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
SW OF CWA. BUT WITH SUCH STRONG WIND FIELDS...STILL COULD BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS EAST OF I-55. BUMPED UP
HIGHS TODAY INTO THE 60S... RANGING FROM 60F NW OF THE IL RIVER TO
LOWER 70S NEAR THE WABASH RIVER. NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WHICH ARE
64F AT PEORIA AND LINCOLN WHILE 66F AND SPRINGFIELD.

STRONG COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EAST OF IL BY MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN
DIMINISHING QUICKLY BEHIND IT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS EVENING.
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST
OF I-55 AS SOUTH WINDS TURN WEST BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT. DRY
SLOT WORKS NE INTO CENTRAL/SE IL OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.

A PIECE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES BREAKS OFF AND MOVES
INTO AR/TN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CENTRAL IL AND MID 40S SE IL. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES MON AND KEEPS MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AGAIN AND A BIT MILDER HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE MIDWEST DURING MID WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THU. COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH IL DRY ON TUE WITH SOME COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO
NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO IL THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND
APPEARS TO HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO BRING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW. 00Z GFS BECOMES MUCH STRONGER WITH LOW PRESSURE
EJECTING INTO IL BY SUNSET FRI BUT 00Z ECMWF HAS THIS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SO BIG DIFFERENCES HERE WITH
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TENDED TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME COOLING AGAIN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY
WEEKS END.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ILZ038-042>046-
051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>044-047>054-061.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ILZ045-046-055.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1022 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-281200-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
1022 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STEADY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD NOON FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-55. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH
OF RAIN ALREADY FELL SINCE MIDNIGHT FOR SOME AREAS WEST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AROUND 2 MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THE WARM RAIN WILL ALSO MELT ANY REMAINING SNOW AND ICE ON THE
GROUND...AND THE FROZEN GROUND WILL FORCE MOST OF THE WATER TO
RUNOFF. HEAVY RAINS...MELTING SNOW...AND POSSIBLE CLOGGED STREET
DRAINS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING TODAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT...WITH ANY RAIN
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. ANY WET SURFACES
MAY RE-FREEZE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

ILZ038-042>044-051>054-061-281200-
CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-
SHELBY-
1022 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT. DRIVING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY ON EAST-WEST ROADS. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND BECOME STRONG AGAIN. THE
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT.

STEADY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-55. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM
THIS EVENING.

THE FROZEN GROUND WILL FORCE MOST OF THE WATER TO RUNOFF. HEAVY
RAINS AND POSSIBLE CLOGGED STREET DRAINS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
TODAY. BASEMENTS WILL LIKELY SEE WATER SEEPAGE AS WELL.

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT...WITH ANY RAIN
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. ANY WET SURFACES
MAY RE-FREEZE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

ILZ045-046-055-281200-
CHAMPAIGN-DOUGLAS-VERMILION-
1022 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.
DRIVING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST-WEST ROADS. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND BECOME STRONG AGAIN. THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT.

STEADY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-55. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING.

THE FROZEN GROUND WILL FORCE MOST OF THE WATER TO RUNOFF. HEAVY
RAINS AND POSSIBLE CLOGGED STREET DRAINS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
TODAY. BASEMENTS WILL LIKELY SEE WATER SEEPAGE AS WELL.

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT...WITH ANY RAIN
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. ANY WET SURFACES
MAY RE-FREEZE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 3 PM.

ILZ056-057-062-063-066>068-071>073-281200-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-
LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
1022 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.
DRIVING MAY BECOME DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST-WEST ROADS. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...AND BECOME STRONG AGAIN. THE WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT.

COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT...WITH ANY RAIN
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. ANY WET SURFACES
MAY RE-FREEZE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY AFTER 4 PM.

BAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1135 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LITTLETON               40.23N 90.62W
12/27/2008                   SCHUYLER           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF BARN

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1151 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 AM     TSTM WND GST     CHAPIN                  39.77N 90.40W
12/27/2008  E60 MPH          MORGAN             IL   MESONET

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1216 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KILBOURNE               40.15N 90.01W
12/27/2008                   MASON              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            30 UTILITY POLES BLOWN DOWN ON 600 NORTH NEAR KILBOURNE.

&&

BAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1219 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 E PETERSBURG          40.01N 89.70W
12/27/2008  E71 MPH          MENARD             IL   MESONET

            WIND SENSOR MEASURED 71 MPH BEFORE THE POWER WENT OUT.

&&

BAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1234 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGFIELD             39.78N 89.64W
12/27/2008                   SANGAMON           IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            A LARGE SECTION OF THE ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF THE U.S. GRANT
            SCHOOL AT THE INTERSECTION OF MONROE AND STAGE.

&&

BAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1238 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LINCOLN                 40.15N 89.37W
12/27/2008                   LOGAN              IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            POWER POLES AND LINES DOWN FOR AT LEAST ONE QUARTER MILE
            ALONG STATE RT 10 OUTSIDE NWS OFFICE

&&

25