Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
906 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 906 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...SOME STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER...ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE FOCUSED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY...PRIMARILY ALONG THE I-72 CORRIDOR.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND AS AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.

GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE AT THIS TIME. AN UPDATE WILL BE MADE
LATER FOR CONVECTIVE/WATCH TRENDS.

BAK
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 643 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER MISSOURI/EXTREME WESTERN
ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF
THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. PRECIPITATION
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP INTO
THE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR WEDNESDAY AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WEDNESDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS TOO LOW TO CARRY IN THE TERMINALS AT
THIS TIME.

BAK
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING LIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN BACK WESTWARD INTO
EASTERN MISSOURI. AIRMASS BETWEEN KEOKUK IA AND COLUMBIA MO IS
RECOVERING RAPIDLY AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS OUT
THERE. MOISTURE/SHEAR/INSTABILITY ARE NO PROBLEM...AND EXPECT NEXT
ROUND OF SEVERE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MISSOURI SOON. IT
MAY BE A BIT LATER THIS FAR EAST WHERE THE AIRMASS IS STILL PRETTY
OVERTURNED BY THE STORMS EARLIER. THE NEW STORMS SHOULD MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG/NORTH OF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR DISCREET SUPERCELLS AT LEAST DURING THE INITIAL
HOURS OF THE EVENT. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGH ACROSS AREAS
THAT ARE ALREADY SUPERSATURATED FROM EARLIER STORMS. WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.

AS WAS THE CASE TODAY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE AREA...NOT TO
MENTION ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS STUFF. LIKELY POPS ARE
WARRANTED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
SOUTHEAST...WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THEY MAY BE CAPPED OFF TO
ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CELLS.

AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE PLAINS...THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
AND LEAVE CENTRAL ILLINOIS HOT AND CAPPED THURSDAY AND AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF FRIDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS AS WELL AS THE NAM HAVE BEEN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SLOWING THE FRIDAY FRONT A LITTLE...AND EXPECT
THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH HEALTHY POPS FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE FRIDAY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED AS WHAT IS
HAPPENING WITH THE CURRENT FRONT...WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING
SOMEWHERE OVER THE MIDWEST THEN LIFTING NORTH BY SUNDAY. CHANCE POPS
WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF ON SATURDAY NEAR THE TAIL OF
THE STALLING FRONT...THEN DRY AND HOT FOR SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS
HINTING THAT THE FRONT MAY SLIP SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS ON MONDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW THAT FAR IN ADVANCE.

04

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ILZ040>057-
061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
327 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

ILZ040-041-044-047>053-041100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-
327 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ALONG WITH HAIL AND WINDS...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. THE RAINS FALLING ON SATURATED
GROUND WILL LEAD TO HIGH RUNOFF RATES AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE HEAVY RAINS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE ILLINOIS AND
SANGAMON RIVERS WITH FLOODING EXPECTED BY LATER THIS WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
INTERACTS WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM 6 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

ILZ063-068-073-041100-
CLARK-CRAWFORD-LAWRENCE-
327 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. ALONG WITH HAIL AND WINDS...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. THE RAINS FALLING ON SATURATED GROUND
WILL LEAD TO HIGH RUNOFF RATES AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

THE HEAVY RAINS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED FLOODING ON THE WABASH
RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND INTERACTS WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM 8 PM UNTIL 2 AM TONIGHT.

ILZ042-043-045-046-054>057-061-062-066-067-071-072-041100-
CHAMPAIGN-CLAY-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-LOGAN-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-VERMILION-
327 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. ALONG WITH HAIL AND
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. THE RAINS FALLING ON
SATURATED GROUND WILL LEAD TO HIGH RUNOFF RATES AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND INTERACTS WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM 6 PM UNTIL 2 AM TONIGHT.

ILZ027>031-036>038-041100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
327 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. ALONG WITH HAIL AND WINDS...VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
INTERACTS WITH A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM 6 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

BARKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
935 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     HAIL             1 E DELAVAN             40.37N 89.53W
06/03/2008  E1.00 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
943 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     HEAVY RAIN       RIVERTON                39.85N 89.54W
06/03/2008  M5.04 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            SWOP REPORT...24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL

0925 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SHERMAN                 39.89N 89.61W
06/03/2008  M5.97 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1005 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0946 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TAYLORVILLE             39.52N 89.26W
06/03/2008                   CHRISTIAN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON A POWERLINE

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1009 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1007 PM     HAIL             GOODFIELD               40.63N 89.27W
06/03/2008  M1.75 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF IL 117 AND INTERSTATE 74

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1036 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLOOD            4 SSE LINCOLN           40.10N 89.34W
06/03/2008                   LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOWING OVER IL RT 121 BETWEEN LINCOLN AND MT
            PULASKI. ALSO WATER FLOWING OVER 700 ST BETWEEN ELKHART
            AND MT PULASKI.

&&

KELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1057 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S PRINCEVILLE         40.87N 89.76W
06/03/2008                   PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            18 INCH TREE SNAPPED.

&&

KELLY