Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
154 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN
COMBINATION WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY WARM AIR WILL
SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO EXTEND FLOOD WATCH TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES
UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SCIOTO COUNTY UNTIL 10 PM EDT DUE TO DAM RELEASE ISSUES ALONG
PINE CREEK IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DISCUSSION BELOW IS STILL VALID.

HAVE KEPT TORNADO WATCH 446 GOING UNTIL 4 PM EDT AND FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WARM...MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VORT MAX WILL PASS ACRS THE
NRN CWFA THIS AFTN/EVENING...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAS LAID ITSELF OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER EXTENDING FLOOD WATCH IF CONVECTION BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD AND SHOWS A SIGN OF TRAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUSHED NORTH BY STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...ILN CWA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AS HIGH AS THE LOW 90S. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY
HUMID...A STRONG CAP SHOULD PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION...SO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRIMARILY PRECIPITATION FREE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WHICH BRINGS DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD
FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL HAVE
A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT THIS FAR EAST WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER
ENERGY. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH CONTINUED ABOVE AVG TEMPS.  SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...THOUGH ISOLD DIURNAL STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FA WHICH WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RADAR LOOPS SHOW THAT MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
EAST OF ALL THE TERMINALS BY 19Z. MID LEVEL VORTMAX OVER EAST
INDIANIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO CENTRAL OHIO THIS EVENING AND
EAST CENTRAL OHIO EARLY TONIGHT. ALSO OLD BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS
AREAS OF CONVECTION PERSIST ON THE VIS SATELITE LOOPS FROM ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO ALONG THE RIVER WESTSOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN IN,
SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHEASTERN MO. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT AND THE ONGOING DAYTIME HEATING WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF VERY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL 06Z. CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR ALL AREAS BY 03Z. SOME MVFR FOG VICINITY CVG AND
LOCALLY IFR VICINITY LUK. VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR BY 13Z.

OUTLOOK...TSTMS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS IN TSTMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
     FOR OHZ088.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ088.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...JDR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
114 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

INZ050-058-059-066-073-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051-052-051715-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-
114 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO
AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

INZ074-075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ053>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-051715-
DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-
OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-
114 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 446 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OHZ088-051715-
SCIOTO-
114 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
   EASTERN SCIOTO COUNTY ALONG PINE CREEK...
...TORNADO WATCH 446 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1053 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BROOKVILLE              39.42N 85.01W
06/04/2008                   FRANKLIN           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT LEAST 8 ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY WITH WATER RUNNING
            ACROSS THEM.

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MANCHESTER              39.15N 85.01W
06/04/2008                   DEARBORN           IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT LEAST 5 COUNTY ROADS WITH HIGH WATER RUNNING ACROSS
            THEM.

&&

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1106 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LOGAN                   39.54N 82.40W
06/04/2008                   HOCKING            OH   PUBLIC

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

MJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1118 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WHEELERSBURG            38.73N 82.85W
06/04/2008                   SCIOTO             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

MJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
218 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WEST UNION              38.79N 83.54W
06/04/2008                   ADAMS              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING...1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER OVER
            ROADWAYS

&&

MYRONP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
225 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

KYZ097>100-OHZ079-081-082-088-041930-
BRACKEN KY-MASON KY-LEWIS KY-ROBERTSON KY-BROWN OH-PIKE OH-SCIOTO OH-
ADAMS OH-
225 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2008

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ADAMS...
SCIOTO...SOUTHERN PIKE...SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...ROBERTSON...LEWIS...
MASON AND SOUTHEASTERN BRACKEN COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 221 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM STOCKDALE TO
MILFORD...MOVING EAST AT 49 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
STONEWALL...OTWAY...MORANBURG...PIQUA...MOUNT OLIVET...STOCKDALE...
MITCHELLS MILL...ABERDEEN...WAMSLEY...BURIKA...BRADYSVILLE AND
ALHAMBRA.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION THROUGH 4 PM.

RYAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
228 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CINCINNATI              39.14N 84.51W
06/04/2008                   HAMILTON           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL MAJOR INTERCHANGES THROUGH CITY WITH VERY HIGH
            WATER.

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E OXFORD              39.51N 84.71W
06/04/2008                   BUTLER             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS WITH VERY HIGH WATER. A HANDFUL OF
            RESIDENTS EVACUATED NEAR CANAL ROAD IN ST. CLAIR
            TOWNSHIP.

&&

JDR