Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Wichita, KS

May 1, 2008Elk County, Kansas

NWS Wichita, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 1, 2008, 6:23 PM CDT for Elk County, Kansas. It was in force for 52 min. 8 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 1, 2008, 6:23 PM CDT (23:23 UTC)
Expired: May 1, 2008, 7:15 PM CDT
In force: 52 min
Issued by: NWS Wichita, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Elk County, KS

The radar

The Wichita radar (KICT), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:25 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 1, 6:38 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	4 E Moline, KS
May 1, 6:44 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	1 Ne Elk Falls, KS
May 1, 6:46 PM CDT	FUNNEL CLOUD	2 W Longton, KS	STORM SPOTTER REPORTED A WALL CLOUD WITH STRONG ROTATION AND A FUNNEL CLOUD 2 MILES WEST OF LONGTON
May 1, 6:50 PM CDT	FUNNEL CLOUD	1 Se Elk Falls, KS
May 1, 6:54 PM CDT	HAIL 1	5 S Fall River, KS
May 1, 6:58 PM CDT	FUNNEL CLOUD	1 E Longton, KS
May 1, 7:05 PM CDT	HAIL 2	3 E Elk Falls, KS
May 1, 7:20 PM CDT	HAIL 0.75	3 W Elk Falls, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 15 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 1, 5:36 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lamont, OK (KLMN), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1630 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -463 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1041 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 485 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 534 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KICT 012324
SVRICT
KSC049-020015-
/O.NEW.KICT.SV.W.0057.080501T2323Z-080502T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
623 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT.

* AT 620 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL
  UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM
  WAS LOCATED NEAR MOLINE...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF SEDAN...AND    
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 42 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 
  NORTH OF LONGTON.

* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  ELK FALLS...GRENOLA...HOWARD...LONGTON...MOLINE.

SAFETY INFORMATION FOR THIS WARNING FOLLOWS:

SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE OR OTHER ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT...WHILE LIGHTNING IS IN THE
AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING.

THIS REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR 
NORTHEAST ELK COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3729 9648 3760 9640 3760 9596 3730 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 229DEG 37KT 3736 9634

$$

DARMOFAL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wichita, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 1, 3:23 PM CDT, 3 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 1, 3:23 PM CDT, 3 hours before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY HAVE A STRONG UPPER WAVE DIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CO/NORTHERN NM. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CU DEVELOPING OVER FAR
WESTERN KS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS START TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE LOOSE DRY LINE IS SITUATED ALONG
A EMP TO WLD LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NE AND ANOTHER ONE
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE
BEEN MAXIMIZED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

TONIGHT:
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WORK EAST THROUGH 00Z FRI AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS SE KS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RUC...GFS AND NAM ARE STILL OVERDOING THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS SE KS WITH MOST SHOWING BETWEEN 65-68 DEGREES...WITH 62-64
MORE REALISTIC. AS EXPECTED THE CAP IS CURRENTLY HOLDING STRONG BUT
WILL START TO ERODE QUICKLY AS THE COOLER MID LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS
THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE STILL BACKING THE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 00Z
AS PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
IMPORTANT QUESTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE TO INITIATE
STORMS BEFORE DARK. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN HOUR EITHER SIDE
OF 00Z WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO
DARK. ONE DIFFERENCE WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND WHAT IS
OCCURRING...IS THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED MORE NE TO SW
WHICH MEANS THAT IT WILL BE EASIER TO GET CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SINCE BACKED WINDS WILL NOT BE NEEDED. OBVIOUSLY ANY STORMS
THAT FIRE BEFORE DARK WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK THE DRYLINE WEST AFTER 00Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKS INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK. IF STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP BEFORE
DARK...THEY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 03Z AS THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
CATCHES UP WITH THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS GETTING INTO THE AREA. THE STORMS AFTER DARK
WILL BE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE BUT WILL STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FRI-SUN:
BY 18Z FRI THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NE/NORTH
CENTRAL NE. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF NORTHERN KS IN A PRIME AREA FOR
HIGH NW WINDS AND CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES FRI AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FEEL IT WOULD
BE CONFUSING GOING WITH AN NPW NOW...CONSIDERING DDC HAS A WIND
ADVISORY OUT FOR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINES LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WILL BRIEF THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT ON THE SITUATION
AND LET THEM ISSUE. CONTINUED WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH 30S LIKELY FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNING AS
THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

MON-THU:
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING INTO THE DESERT SW ON MON AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
WED INTO THU. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR MON INTO TUE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO MODES OF PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THESE PERIODS...ONE WITH THE INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE AND THE
OTHER WHEN THE UPPER DYNAMICS LIFT OUT. FOR NOW WILL NOT GET TOO
CUTE AND WILL INCREASE POPS SLOWLY FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE

****ERROR: INCOMPLETE DATA

  39  64 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         40  56  35  60 /  20  40  30  10
GREAT BEND      41  56  36  63 /  20  30  20   0
SALINA          47  58  35  62 /  20  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       47  60  37  62 /  20  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  69  42  63 /  80  20  10  10
CHANUTE         56  67  41  59 /  80  20  20  10
IOLA            56  67  41  59 /  80  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  69  42  61 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 1, 3:48 PM CDT, 2 hours 35 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-021015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
348 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS PRIOR TO
SUNSET WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK AS A COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE RETREATING DRYLINE. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
BECOMING SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

COX/JMC/LAWSON

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 1, 6:02 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
602 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             2 NE MOLINE             37.38N 96.28W
05/01/2008  E1.00 INCH       ELK                KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LFW

Local storm report, May 1, 6:03 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
603 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             4 NE MOLINE             37.40N 96.25W
05/01/2008  E2.50 INCH       ELK                KS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

LFW

Local storm report, May 1, 6:09 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
609 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             1 E MOLINE              37.36N 96.28W
05/01/2008  E1.00 INCH       ELK                KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LFW

Local storm report, May 1, 6:12 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
612 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             6 E SEVERY              37.62N 96.12W
05/01/2008  E1.00 INCH       GREENWOOD          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ELDER

Local storm report, May 1, 6:15 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
615 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             FALL RIVER              37.61N 96.03W
05/01/2008  E1.00 INCH       GREENWOOD          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LFW

Local storm report, May 1, 6:17 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             5 NE LONGTON            37.43N 96.02W
05/01/2008  E1.75 INCH       ELK                KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LFW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wichita, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 1, 1:09 PM CDT	Wind Advisory	ICT	Allen, Chautauqua, Elk, Greenwood, Labette, Montgomery and 3 more	2 hr
May 1, 5:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Chautauqua, Elk	49 min
May 1, 5:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Cowley	39 min
May 1, 6:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Greenwood, Wilson, Woodson	51 min
May 1, 6:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Elk	30 min
May 1, 6:41 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ICT	Elk	34 min
May 1, 6:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Greenwood, Woodson	48 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2008 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.