Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WWUS53 KICT 012241
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

KSC019-049-012315-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-080501T2315Z/
CHAUTAUQUA KS-ELK KS-
540 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ELK AND
NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8
MILES SOUTH OF MOLINE...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF SEDAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 37 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE...
  NEAR ELK FALLS BY 555 PM CDT.
  NEAR LONGTON BY 600 PM CDT.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3729 9651 3760 9651 3760 9595 3719 9596
      3710 9620 3710 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 218DEG 32KT 3727 9625

$$

LAWSON

000 
WWUS53 KICT 012253
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
552 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

KSC019-049-012315-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-080501T2315Z/
CHAUTAUQUA KS-ELK KS-
552 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ELK AND
NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 550 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ELK FALLS...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF SEDAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF ELK AND
NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE TOWN OF ELK FALLS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW 
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 3729 9651 3760 9651 3760 9595 3719 9596
      3710 9620 3710 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 208DEG 36KT 3738 9619

$$

LAWSON

000 
WWUS53 KICT 012258
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
557 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

KSC019-012307-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-080501T2315Z/
CHAUTAUQUA KS-
557 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 555 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE RISK TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3731 9651 3760 9651 3760 9595 3750 9595
      3749 9596 3731 9596 3730 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 208DEG 36KT 3742 9616

$$

KSC049-012315-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-080501T2315Z/
ELK KS-
557 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ELK COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 555 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ELK FALLS...OR 19 MILES NORTH OF SEDAN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF ELK
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWN OF ELK FALLS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3731 9651 3760 9651 3760 9595 3750 9595
      3749 9596 3731 9596 3730 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 208DEG 36KT 3742 9616

$$

LAWSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY HAVE A STRONG UPPER WAVE DIVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CO/NORTHERN NM. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING SOME CU DEVELOPING OVER FAR
WESTERN KS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS START TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE LOOSE DRY LINE IS SITUATED ALONG
A EMP TO WLD LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NE AND ANOTHER ONE
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE
BEEN MAXIMIZED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

TONIGHT:
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WORK EAST THROUGH 00Z FRI AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS SE KS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RUC...GFS AND NAM ARE STILL OVERDOING THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS SE KS WITH MOST SHOWING BETWEEN 65-68 DEGREES...WITH 62-64
MORE REALISTIC. AS EXPECTED THE CAP IS CURRENTLY HOLDING STRONG BUT
WILL START TO ERODE QUICKLY AS THE COOLER MID LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS
THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE STILL BACKING THE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 00Z
AS PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
IMPORTANT QUESTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE TO INITIATE
STORMS BEFORE DARK. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN HOUR EITHER SIDE
OF 00Z WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO
DARK. ONE DIFFERENCE WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND WHAT IS
OCCURRING...IS THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED MORE NE TO SW
WHICH MEANS THAT IT WILL BE EASIER TO GET CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SINCE BACKED WINDS WILL NOT BE NEEDED. OBVIOUSLY ANY STORMS
THAT FIRE BEFORE DARK WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK THE DRYLINE WEST AFTER 00Z AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRACKS INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK. IF STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP BEFORE
DARK...THEY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 03Z AS THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY
CATCHES UP WITH THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE
BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS GETTING INTO THE AREA. THE STORMS AFTER DARK
WILL BE MORE LINEAR IN NATURE BUT WILL STILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FRI-SUN:
BY 18Z FRI THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NE/NORTH
CENTRAL NE. THIS WILL PLACE MOST OF NORTHERN KS IN A PRIME AREA FOR
HIGH NW WINDS AND CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES FRI AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...FEEL IT WOULD
BE CONFUSING GOING WITH AN NPW NOW...CONSIDERING DDC HAS A WIND
ADVISORY OUT FOR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINES LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE WILL BRIEF THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT ON THE SITUATION
AND LET THEM ISSUE. CONTINUED WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE
UPPER LOW. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES WITH 30S LIKELY FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNING AS
THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

MON-THU:
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH THESE
PERIODS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TRACKING INTO THE DESERT SW ON MON AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR
WED INTO THU. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO SETUP ACROSS THE PLAINS
FOR MON INTO TUE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO MODES OF PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH THESE PERIODS...ONE WITH THE INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE AND THE
OTHER WHEN THE UPPER DYNAMICS LIFT OUT. FOR NOW WILL NOT GET TOO
CUTE AND WILL INCREASE POPS SLOWLY FROM MON NIGHT INTO WED.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE

****ERROR: INCOMPLETE DATA

  39  64 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         40  56  35  60 /  20  40  30  10
GREAT BEND      41  56  36  63 /  20  30  20   0
SALINA          47  58  35  62 /  20  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       47  60  37  62 /  20  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     58  69  42  63 /  80  20  10  10
CHANUTE         56  67  41  59 /  80  20  20  10
IOLA            56  67  41  59 /  80  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  69  42  61 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-021015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
348 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS PRIOR TO
SUNSET WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER DARK AS A COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE RETREATING DRYLINE. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A LINE AND AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
BECOMING SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

COX/JMC/LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
506 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

KSZ070-093-094-098-012230-
CHAUTAUQUA-COWLEY-ELK-GREENWOOD-
506 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR CHAUTAUQUA...COWLEY...ELK AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES...

AT 503 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF HOWARD TO NEAR MAPLE
CITY.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DARMOFAL