Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1116 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

.UPDATE...
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO TRY AND KEEP UP WITH CURRENT TRENDS
AS WELL AS TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AFTER 18Z WITH MORE LINEAR
CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWEST IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. TWEAKED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CLOUD COVER IS THICKEST AS WELL AS THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MODIFIED LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE IN THE
2500 TO 3000 RANGE. STEEP HAIL GROWTH LAPSE RATES WITH 25 TO 35
KTS 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND IN INCREASING WIND
THREAT.

CDB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST PRECIPITATION TRENDS. AS FAR AS
SEVERITY OF CONVECTION...DEALING MAINLY WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS
THAT ARE PULSING. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR /35 TO 40 KNOTS WHICH
WOULD FAVOR ROTATING STORMS...REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS THIS MORNING THE RESULT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
NOT ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.

KRC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008/

UPDATE...

WILL BE MAKING MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING GRIDS TO ADJUST TO
OBERVATIONS/SHORT TERM TRENDS. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM THE RUC
SEEMS TO BE DOING BEST WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION. AFTER 1800 UTC ABOUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. THE LOCALLY RUN WRF 32KM WITH NO CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION MAY HAVE BEST HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT SHUTS PRECIPITATION DOWN THIS MORNING...THEN
REDEVELOPS PRECIPITATION IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF DDC FORECAST
AREA AROUND 2100 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE. THE BEST LIFT/CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD APPEAR TO
BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST
KS. BELIEVE THE OPERATIONAL NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/GLOBAL FORECAST
SYSTEM MODEL IS UNDERPLAYING CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALUES CLOSER AT OR ABOVE 2000J/KILOGRAM
MORE REALISTIC...WITH EVERYTHING DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
COVER/HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. -HOWERTON

AVIATION...

ANOTHER TRICKY SET OF TAFS...WITH CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT THE ONSET AND THEN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE BADLY WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS. BELIEVE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL WANE BY MIDDLE MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE LOCAL VERSION OF WRF WITH NO CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION HAS BEST HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST VCTS/TSTM TEMPO GROUPS AT KRSL/KHUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON....AND VCTS KSLN/KICT A BIT LATER. FOR KCNU...BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
-HOWERTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
CONVECTION JUST GETTING STARTED OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 02Z...WITH
SOME CUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT GIVEN THE
WEAK SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA REMAINS STRONG ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...STILL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THERE COULD BE SOME
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ARE AROUND 2 INCHES...AND 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS 3 TO 4 INCHES.

WHILE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MODERATE THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. NAM/WRF KEEPS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF KANSAS
FROM THURSDAY LATE EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY STRONG DURING THAT TIME. WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
LOOK AT THIS TIME FRAME AGAIN.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW COMES THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SCHRECK

AVIATION...06Z TAFS RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU

ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS 850 SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ADVECTS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NWD FROM OKLAHOMA. OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE TS MENTION IN TAFS GIVEN COVERAGE CONCERNS. BETTER CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED TSRA COVERAGE WED PARTICULARLY PM/EVE AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE SW. DID INCLUDE VCTS FOR THIS.
NOT QUITE AS CONFIDENT ABOUT IFR CIGS FORMING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS GIVEN LATEST DEWPOINT TRENDS ESPECIALLY UP IN
CENTRAL KS. ALSO...NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
NEVERTHELESS WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF WARM FRONT IN
OKLAHOMA...COULD SEE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO
EVENTUALLY FORM SOME IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY
CARRY SOME SCATTERED DECKS AROUND 500-800 FT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  60  80  55 /  60  60  20  30
HUTCHINSON      71  59  78  52 /  70  60  20  30
NEWTON          72  59  79  55 /  60  60  20  30
ELDORADO        74  59  80  56 /  50  60  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  60  82  57 /  50  60  20  20
RUSSELL         70  59  79  47 /  80  50  20  30
GREAT BEND      69  59  82  49 /  80  50  20  30
SALINA          71  59  79  51 /  70  60  20  30
MCPHERSON       70  58  78  53 /  70  60  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     79  60  82  57 /  40  70  30  20
CHANUTE         77  59  81  57 /  40  70  40  30
IOLA            78  58  81  57 /  40  70  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    77  59  81  57 /  40  70  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1015 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241515-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1015 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM EUREKA TO SEDAN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
STORM TODAY WILL BE QUARTER SIZED HAIL OR LARGER... WIND GUSTS OF
60 MPH AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHECK BACK FOR LATER OUTLOOKS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT COULD INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH ON THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND
HIGH AGAIN ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1131 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW MARION             38.37N 97.04W
04/23/2008  M4.00 INCH       MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            4 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED IN THE LAST 2 HOURS AT MARION
            RESERVOIR.

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     HAIL             3 S ARLINGTON           37.85N 98.18W
04/23/2008  E1.25 INCH       RENO               KS   PUBLIC

&&

ELDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 AM     HAIL             ARLINGTON               37.90N 98.18W
04/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       RENO               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

ELDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1138 AM     HAIL             ARLINGTON               37.90N 98.18W
04/23/2008  E1.25 INCH       RENO               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1204 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 SSW COTTONWOOD FALLS  38.26N 96.60W
04/23/2008  E60 MPH          CHASE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ELDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1205 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N MARION              38.38N 97.02W
04/23/2008                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            190TH STREET BETWEEN MARION AND HILLSBORO CLOSED DUE TO
            WATER OVER THE ROAD. HIGHWAY 77 AT 230TH CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER, WHICH IS ABOUT 2 MILES NORTH OF MARION.

&&

RBL