Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
859 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST PRECIPITATION TRENDS. AS FAR AS
SEVERITY OF CONVECTION...DEALING MAINLY WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS
THAT ARE PULSING. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR /35 TO 40 KNOTS WHICH
WOULD FAVOR ROTATING STORMS...REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. STORMS THIS MORNING THE RESULT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ANY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
NOT ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME.

KRC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008/

UPDATE...

WILL BE MAKING MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING GRIDS TO ADJUST TO
OBERVATIONS/SHORT TERM TRENDS. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM THE RUC
SEEMS TO BE DOING BEST WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION. AFTER 1800 UTC ABOUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. THE LOCALLY RUN WRF 32KM WITH NO CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION MAY HAVE BEST HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT SHUTS PRECIPITATION DOWN THIS MORNING...THEN
REDEVELOPS PRECIPITATION IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF DDC FORECAST
AREA AROUND 2100 UTC IN ASSOCIATION WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE. THE BEST LIFT/CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD APPEAR TO
BE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST
KS. BELIEVE THE OPERATIONAL NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/GLOBAL FORECAST
SYSTEM MODEL IS UNDERPLAYING CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VALUES CLOSER AT OR ABOVE 2000J/KILOGRAM
MORE REALISTIC...WITH EVERYTHING DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
COVER/HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. -HOWERTON

AVIATION...

ANOTHER TRICKY SET OF TAFS...WITH CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT THE ONSET AND THEN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE BADLY WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS. BELIEVE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL WANE BY MIDDLE MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE LOCAL VERSION OF WRF WITH NO CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERIZATION HAS BEST HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST VCTS/TSTM TEMPO GROUPS AT KRSL/KHUT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON....AND VCTS KSLN/KICT A BIT LATER. FOR KCNU...BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
-HOWERTON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
CONVECTION JUST GETTING STARTED OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AT 02Z...WITH
SOME CUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS MORNING AND THEN OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY...0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BUT GIVEN THE
WEAK SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA REMAINS STRONG ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...STILL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL BE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS. THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THERE COULD BE SOME
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS...BUT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ARE AROUND 2 INCHES...AND 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS 3 TO 4 INCHES.

WHILE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MODERATE THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY. NAM/WRF KEEPS PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF KANSAS
FROM THURSDAY LATE EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE TRANSPORT
CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY STRONG DURING THAT TIME. WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
LOOK AT THIS TIME FRAME AGAIN.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW COMES THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY EVENING WITH MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SCHRECK

AVIATION...06Z TAFS RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU

ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS 850 SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ADVECTS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NWD FROM OKLAHOMA. OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE TS MENTION IN TAFS GIVEN COVERAGE CONCERNS. BETTER CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED TSRA COVERAGE WED PARTICULARLY PM/EVE AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE SW. DID INCLUDE VCTS FOR THIS.
NOT QUITE AS CONFIDENT ABOUT IFR CIGS FORMING DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS GIVEN LATEST DEWPOINT TRENDS ESPECIALLY UP IN
CENTRAL KS. ALSO...NAM HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
NEVERTHELESS WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF WARM FRONT IN
OKLAHOMA...COULD SEE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO
EVENTUALLY FORM SOME IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY
CARRY SOME SCATTERED DECKS AROUND 500-800 FT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  60  80  55 /  40  60  20  30
HUTCHINSON      73  59  78  52 /  50  60  20  30
NEWTON          73  59  79  55 /  40  60  20  30
ELDORADO        75  59  80  56 /  40  60  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  60  82  57 /  40  60  20  20
RUSSELL         72  59  79  47 /  60  50  20  30
GREAT BEND      71  59  82  49 /  60  50  20  30
SALINA          72  59  79  51 /  50  60  20  30
MCPHERSON       72  58  78  53 /  50  60  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     78  60  82  57 /  30  70  30  20
CHANUTE         77  59  81  57 /  30  70  40  30
IOLA            77  58  81  57 /  30  70  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    77  59  81  57 /  30  70  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
859 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241400-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
859 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... HOWEVER AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORM TODAY WILL BE
QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHECK BACK FOR LATER OUTLOOKS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT COULD INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH ON THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND
HIGH AGAIN ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK/CDB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
803 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

KSZ052-231330-
MARION-
803 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR MARION COUNTY...

AT 759 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PEABODY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
811 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 AM     HAIL             PEABODY                 38.17N 97.11W
04/23/2008  E0.75 INCH       MARION             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
841 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

KSZ052-231415-
MARION-
841 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR MARION COUNTY...

AT 839 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOESSEL...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HILLSBORO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS
LOCATED ONE MILE NORTH OF LEHIGH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
933 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 AM     HAIL             3 NE GOESSEL            38.28N 97.31W
04/23/2008  E1.75 INCH       MARION             KS   PUBLIC

&&

ELDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
935 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

KSZ047-231515-
BARTON-
935 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BARTON COUNTY...

AT 933 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEWARD...AND MOVING NORTH AT 21 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

JAKUB