Flood Watch 5, NWS Wichita, KS

Allen County, KS, Barton County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Labette County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Russell County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST TODAY INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND THEN
SEVERE THREAT ON THU.

TONIGHT:
CURRENT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME...AS LEAD SHORTWAVE IN THE MID LAYERS MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.  THIS SHORTWAVE AND LOTS OF LIFT THROUGH THE LAYER HAS
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WITH A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS. SHORT
TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BUT
ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE TX PANHANDLE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CEN OK AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT. WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ALREADY ACROSS THE AREA AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 2
INCHES...BELIEVE THAT A FLOOD WATCH IS WARRANTED FOR THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  COULD SEE THE CONVECTION
POSSIBLY SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS THE OVERNIGHT
PROGRESSES....SO HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD BE EAST OF THE TURNPIKE FOR
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THU.

THU:
A RATHER INTERESTING SEVERE SETUP LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING FOR LATE
THU AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135.
AIRMASS INITIALLY LOOKS CAPPED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA UNTIL
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS WARM ALOFT KEEPS CONVECTION IN CHECK...SO WILL
TRIM BACK POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS. BUT
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THIS AREA AHEAD A DRY LINE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND FORECAST SBCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG
SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN GET GOING LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND FORECASTED
HODOGRAPHS ALSO SUGGEST THAT SOME SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TORNADIC POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SOME
PARAMETERS COMING TOGETHER FOR A SMALL TORNADO THREAT.

FRI-SAT:
MAIN SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON
FRI...WITH MAIN SURFACE TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS
BEFORE THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FRONTAL
POSITION FOR FRI AFTERNOON...AS LOTS OF INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE
AROUND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FOR MORE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOOKS LIKE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A RETURN TO SUNNY SKIES FOR FRI
AFTERNOON INTO SAT...AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

SAT NIGHT-SUN:
MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER ON HOW THE LAST PORTION OF SAT
INTO EARLY SUN WILL EVOLVE.  ECMWF IS COMING AROUND TO GFS SOLUTION
OF A PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE REGION FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR SAT NIGHT.  FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY INCREASES AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. SO WILL
INCREASE POPS TO A SOLID CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS JUST AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY.

PROGRESSIVE NATURE LOOKS TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA EARLY ON SUNDAY...SO PLAN ON ENDING POPS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

REST OF THE EXTENDED:
THE SUN-TUE TIME FRAME LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS NW UPPER FLOW
REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH THIS NW
FLOW...WILL SEE TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. WILL ALSO GO WITH LOW
POPS FOR WED AS FLOW STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT.

KETCHAM

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS:
BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR THIS SET OF TAFS IS ONGOING AND FORECAST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TIMING OF STORMS BRINGS ACTIVITY INTO HUT
AND ICT AROUND 19Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. MENTIONED VICINITY THUNDER FOR SLN AND RSL
AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR THOSE SITES. ALSO TIMED ACTIVITY
TO AROUND 23Z FOR CNU. ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECHARGE LATE
THURSDAY MORNING SO ADDED SCATTERED CB DECK TO HUT/ICT.

CDB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    61  80  55  70 /  70  40  40  20
HUTCHINSON      60  78  52  69 /  70  40  40  20
NEWTON          60  79  55  68 /  70  40  40  20
ELDORADO        60  80  56  69 /  80  40  40  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  82  57  71 /  80  40  40  20
RUSSELL         60  79  47  66 /  70  50  50  10
GREAT BEND      60  82  49  68 /  70  40  40  10
SALINA          60  79  51  67 /  70  50  50  10
MCPHERSON       59  78  53  68 /  70  50  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     61  82  60  73 /  90  40  30  30
CHANUTE         60  81  60  71 /  80  40  30  30
IOLA            59  81  60  70 /  70  40  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    60  81  60  71 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1015 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-241515-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1015 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM EUREKA TO SEDAN. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
STORM TODAY WILL BE QUARTER SIZED HAIL OR LARGER... WIND GUSTS OF
60 MPH AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CHECK BACK FOR LATER OUTLOOKS AS THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT COULD INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS
ON FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH ON THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND
HIGH AGAIN ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

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