Severe Thunderstorm Warning 423, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL TODAY.

SYNOPSIS:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A POWERFUL PIECE OF ENERGY IS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY THROUGH ICT AND
HEADING SE. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT HAS
ENCOUNTERED UNSEASONABLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN STRONG/LOW END SEVERE.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
AFTER TALKING THINGS OVER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL RUN WITH A
LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KS.

ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WAS TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SE KS THIS MORNING...PLENTY OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL BE LINGERING BACK WEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. THE UKMET HAS DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB REGARDING THE POST
FRONTAL PRECIP AND IT NOW AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 06Z NAM IN
SWINGING THROUGH A BAND OF SNOW AFTER 15Z. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE
SHOWING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ALONG
WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. CROSS
SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW OVERLY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY BUT DO INDICATE
SOME WEAK SLANTWISE INSTABILITY. THE MAIN NEGATIVE TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE BAND OF SNOW.
HOWEVER FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT RATES FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS
THE BAND SETS UP FROM JUST EAST OF DDC TO EAST OF THE GREAT BEND
AREA. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO BETWEEN 1.5-2.00
INCHES IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST THE FRONT HAS REALLY BEEN TAKING ITS TIME
PROGRESSING EAST AND THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO LINGER STORMS OVER SE KS
A BIT LATER. BY 06Z SUN THE MAIN VORT MAX WILL EXTEND FROM SW WI
INTO SOUTHERN MO LEAVING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS.

SUN-FRI:
UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THESE PERIODS ALLOWING FOR
MILD TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE
SETTING UP HIGHS ON MON ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR
TO SPILL INTO THE REGION...KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED FROM EASTERN SD
THROUGH EASTERN OK ON WED WITH SOME RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME FOR WED.
CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE WED TIME FRAME DECREASES AS SOME FAIRLY LARGE
DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DIVING ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THU WITH
THE ECMWF TAKING THIS SAME SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE DRY UNTIL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GET INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MOST WIDESPREAD EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG
SHEAR...CAPABLE OF QUARTER-SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS. FOR SATURDAY...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD
EAST ACROSS PRIMARILY CENTRAL KS...WITH AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LIGHT
SNOW...FROM ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  23  50  26 /  70  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  23  51  24 /  80  10   0   0
NEWTON          36  23  50  25 /  70  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  23  50  25 /  50  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  24  51  26 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         32  18  51  22 /  60   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      33  21  52  23 /  60   0   0   0
SALINA          33  23  50  25 /  60  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       34  23  51  24 /  70  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     57  26  50  28 /  90  10   0   0
CHANUTE         53  25  50  29 /  90  10   0   0
IOLA            53  25  50  29 /  90  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    54  25  50  28 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ047>052-067-068-082-083-091.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
412 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-281015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
412 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE
WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN THREATS. IN
ADDITION A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLEASE SEE LATEST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAYBE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 AM     TSTM WND GST     LEON                    37.69N 96.78W
12/27/2008  M60 MPH          BUTLER             KS   MESONET

            MEASURED BY KSN WEATHER LAB EQUIPMENT AT BLUESTEM
            ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

&&

ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     TSTM WND GST     EUREKA                  37.82N 96.29W
12/27/2008  M58 MPH          GREENWOOD          KS   AWOS

            MEASURED BY AWOS EQUIPMENT AT THE EUREKA AIRPORT.

&&

ADK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

KSZ069-093-094-098-271030-
BUTLER-CHAUTAUQUA-COWLEY-ELK-
352 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER...CHAUTAUQUA...COWLEY AND ELK COUNTIES...

AT 349 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BURDEN TO 8 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHILOCCO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CARUSO

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