Severe Thunderstorm Warning 420, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
310 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL TODAY.

SYNOPSIS:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A POWERFUL PIECE OF ENERGY IS MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY THROUGH ICT AND
HEADING SE. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT HAS
ENCOUNTERED UNSEASONABLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN STRONG/LOW END SEVERE.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
AFTER TALKING THINGS OVER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL RUN WITH A
LOW END WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KS.

ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WAS TO INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AND SNOW AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE
FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF SE KS THIS MORNING...PLENTY OF UPPER
ENERGY WILL BE LINGERING BACK WEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL OK/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. THE UKMET HAS DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB REGARDING THE POST
FRONTAL PRECIP AND IT NOW AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 06Z NAM IN
SWINGING THROUGH A BAND OF SNOW AFTER 15Z. BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE
SHOWING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ALONG
WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. CROSS
SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW OVERLY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY BUT DO INDICATE
SOME WEAK SLANTWISE INSTABILITY. THE MAIN NEGATIVE TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL BE THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE BAND OF SNOW.
HOWEVER FEEL THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT RATES FOR A COUPLE HOURS AS
THE BAND SETS UP FROM JUST EAST OF DDC TO EAST OF THE GREAT BEND
AREA. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS TO BETWEEN 1.5-2.00
INCHES IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST THE FRONT HAS REALLY BEEN TAKING ITS TIME
PROGRESSING EAST AND THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO LINGER STORMS OVER SE KS
A BIT LATER. BY 06Z SUN THE MAIN VORT MAX WILL EXTEND FROM SW WI
INTO SOUTHERN MO LEAVING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS.

SUN-FRI:
UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THESE PERIODS ALLOWING FOR
MILD TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION. WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE
SETTING UP HIGHS ON MON ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR
TO SPILL INTO THE REGION...KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED FROM EASTERN SD
THROUGH EASTERN OK ON WED WITH SOME RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE SOME FOR WED.
CONFIDENCE BEYOND THE WED TIME FRAME DECREASES AS SOME FAIRLY LARGE
DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DIVING ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THU WITH
THE ECMWF TAKING THIS SAME SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE DRY UNTIL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GET INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MOST WIDESPREAD EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG
SHEAR...CAPABLE OF QUARTER-SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREAS. FOR SATURDAY...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD
EAST ACROSS PRIMARILY CENTRAL KS...WITH AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LIGHT
SNOW...FROM ROUGHLY MID-MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  23  50  26 /  70  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      34  23  51  24 /  80  10   0   0
NEWTON          36  23  50  25 /  70  10   0   0
ELDORADO        39  23  50  25 /  50  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   38  24  51  26 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         32  18  51  22 /  60   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      33  21  52  23 /  60   0   0   0
SALINA          33  23  50  25 /  60  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       34  23  51  24 /  70  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     57  26  50  28 /  90  10   0   0
CHANUTE         53  25  50  29 /  90  10   0   0
IOLA            53  25  50  29 /  90  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    54  25  50  28 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ047>052-067-068-082-083-091.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-280100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
648 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...MAINLY EAST OF A SEDAN TO IOLA LINE.

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH
ABOUT 9 AM SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH CONTINUING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
MEANWHILE...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER AREAS GENERALLY
NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE. ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH
FOR SOME LOCATIONS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN PLACE AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM SATURDAY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

RBL/MBS/RHE/ADK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
222 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

KSZ068-069-083-092-093-270900-
BUTLER-COWLEY-HARVEY-SEDGWICK-SUMNER-
222 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER...COWLEY...HARVEY...SEDGWICK AND SUMNER
COUNTIES...

AT 217 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF
BURNS TO NEAR DOWNTOWN WICHITA...TO CALDWELL. INDIVIDUAL STORMS
WITHIN THE LINE WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH WHILE THE LINE WAS
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CARUSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
256 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 AM     TSTM WND GST     WINFIELD                37.27N 96.97W
12/27/2008  M60 MPH          COWLEY             KS   ASOS

            MEASURED BY ASOS EQUIPMENT AT STROTHER FIELD.

&&

ADK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
257 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

KSZ053-069-070-092>094-271000-
BUTLER-CHASE-COWLEY-ELK-GREENWOOD-SUMNER-
257 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR BUTLER...CHASE...COWLEY...ELK...GREENWOOD AND
SUMNER COUNTIES...

AT 254 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTH OF
SAFFORDVILLE TO LEON...TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GEUDA SPRINGS...AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITHIN THE LINE WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CARUSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 AM     TSTM WND GST     LEON                    37.69N 96.78W
12/27/2008  M60 MPH          BUTLER             KS   MESONET

            MEASURED BY KSN WEATHER LAB EQUIPMENT AT BLUESTEM
            ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

&&

ADK