Severe Thunderstorm Warning 309, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1159 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

.AVIATION...

FOR 06Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS STORM CHANCES THROUGH
MAINLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SE KS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THIS
ACTIVITY OVER EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND TRACK EAST. THEREFORE
KCNU WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE STRONG STORMS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KICT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF
STORMS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE THAN KCNU. SOME
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL KS WHERE TWO SURFACE
BOUNDARIES HAVE COLLIDED. IN ADDITION THIS AREA IS CLOSE TO THE
UPPER WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL KS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THE STORMS TRACK NORTHEAST.

THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LINGER AT KCNU THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1053 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS AND TO DOWNGRADE THREAT IN HWO.

CURRENTLY HAVE A LINE OF STRONG STORMS ORIENTED GENERALLY ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THESE STORMS HAVE
DECREASED IN INTENSITY AS THE OUTFLOW HAS NOW PUSHED OUT AHEAD OF
THE LINE. HEAVY RAIN...QUARTER HAIL AND 60 MPH WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE.

BOTH THE RUC AND NAM AGREE ON DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL STORMS GENERALLY
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND TRACKING THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH SOUTHEAST
KANSAS VERY LATE TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE AS AN UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION THE AREA WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
WHILE STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHERN AND SE
KS...WERE NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TOWARD THE LOWER END OF SEVERE.
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD THEN BECOME FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF
ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS DEVELOP AFTER 2AM LIKE THE NAM AND RUC ARE
ADVERTISING.

LAWSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008/

AVIATION...

FOR 00Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
BE STORM CHANCES.

STORMS ONCE AGAIN FIRED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS SITUATED JUST
NORTH OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT THESE STORMS
QUICKLY BECAME SEVERE. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST.
THROUGH 03Z KICT WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO EXPERIENCE STORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTER 03Z THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL START TO AFFECT
SOUTHEAST KANSAS(KCNU). AFTER 12Z THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

TONIGHT:
THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MEANDERING THROUGH THE DAY...MOVING A FEW
MILES NORTH...THEN A FEW MILES SOUTH...ETC. EXPECTATION IS THAT
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. DEEP SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 60
KNOTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND EVEN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DEEP SHEAR IS OVER 40 KNOTS...SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE OVER 4000 ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL. EARLY ON THIS EVENING...DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL...WIND...HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LATER (AFTER 03Z OR SO) THE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE 3000 TO 4000 KM AND
PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE
HAVE RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION ALREADY THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS...AND SOILS ARE STILL SATURATED. WITH THE STORMS CONTINUALLY
AFFECTING THE SAME AREAS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME FLOODING. WE WILL EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH WEST TO THE TURNPIKE
AND START IT EARLIER (00Z). HOWEVER...BE AWARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE SUNNY FOR SATURDAY
AND ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO EVAPORATE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE STRONG
SUNSHINE...BUT DEPENDING HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED SOME.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY:
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME....AND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. WE
DID INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EACH EVENING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT LOWER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCHRECK

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF SUITE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR
EMPORIA TO WICHITA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...SOME
SEVERE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR CONVECTION THROUGH 12Z-14Z FRI MORNING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  82  59  87 /  30  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      62  83  58  87 /  20  20  10  10
NEWTON          63  83  58  87 /  20  30  10  10
ELDORADO        65  82  58  86 /  50  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  81  60  87 /  90  50  10  10
RUSSELL         59  84  56  89 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      59  84  57  89 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          59  84  57  89 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  83  58  87 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  81  60  87 / 100  80  10  10
CHANUTE         67  81  59  86 / 100  80  10  10
IOLA            66  81  58  87 /  90  80  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  81  59  87 / 100  80  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-069>072-083-
092>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1100 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-132045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1100 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH.

ADDITIONALLY...OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
WILL RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE SEVERE. STAY TUNED TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK/KED/ELDER/LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
134 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1217 AM     FLOOD            7 NE ROSE HILL          37.64N 97.04W
06/13/2008                   BUTLER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER HAVERHILL ROAD BETWEEN 120TH AND 130TH.

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
136 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 AM     FLOOD            3 N SEVERY              37.67N 96.23W
06/13/2008                   GREENWOOD          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER K-99 NORTH OF SEVERY

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
138 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 AM     FLOOD            FREDONIA                37.53N 95.82W
06/13/2008                   WILSON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR FLOODING REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF FREDONIA

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
222 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     HAIL             ATTICA                  37.24N 98.23W
06/13/2008  E1.00 INCH       HARPER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 N FREDONIA            37.62N 95.82W
06/13/2008  M6.50 INCH       WILSON             KS   PUBLIC

0234 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FREDONIA                37.53N 95.82W
06/13/2008                   WILSON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY ARE UNDER
            WATER.

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
238 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 AM     HAIL             ANTHONY                 37.15N 98.03W
06/13/2008  E1.50 INCH       HARPER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CDB