Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
658 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

.AVIATION...

FOR 00Z TAFS...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
BE STORM CHANCES.

STORMS ONCE AGAIN FIRED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS SITUATED JUST
NORTH OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT THESE STORMS
QUICKLY BECAME SEVERE. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST.
THROUGH 03Z KICT WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT TO EXPERIENCE STORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE. AFTER 03Z THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL START TO AFFECT
SOUTHEAST KANSAS(KCNU). AFTER 12Z THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO
LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

TONIGHT:
THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MEANDERING THROUGH THE DAY...MOVING A FEW
MILES NORTH...THEN A FEW MILES SOUTH...ETC. EXPECTATION IS THAT
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. DEEP SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 60
KNOTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND EVEN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DEEP SHEAR IS OVER 40 KNOTS...SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE OVER 4000 ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL. EARLY ON THIS EVENING...DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL...WIND...HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

LATER (AFTER 03Z OR SO) THE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO MAINLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE 3000 TO 4000 KM AND
PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE
HAVE RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION ALREADY THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS...AND SOILS ARE STILL SATURATED. WITH THE STORMS CONTINUALLY
AFFECTING THE SAME AREAS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME FLOODING. WE WILL EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH WEST TO THE TURNPIKE
AND START IT EARLIER (00Z). HOWEVER...BE AWARE THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...BUT SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND SKIES WILL BE SUNNY FOR SATURDAY
AND ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO EVAPORATE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE STRONG
SUNSHINE...BUT DEPENDING HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED SOME.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY:
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME....AND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE ENOUGH FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS. WE
DID INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EACH EVENING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT LOWER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCHRECK

AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAF SUITE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR
EMPORIA TO WICHITA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...SOME
SEVERE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR CONVECTION THROUGH 12Z-14Z FRI MORNING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  82  59  87 /  90  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      62  83  58  87 /  80  20  10  10
NEWTON          63  83  58  87 /  90  30  10  10
ELDORADO        65  82  58  86 / 100  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  81  60  87 / 100  50  10  10
RUSSELL         59  84  56  89 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      59  84  57  89 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          59  84  57  89 /  50  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       61  83  58  87 /  70  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  81  60  87 / 100  80  10  10
CHANUTE         67  81  59  86 / 100  80  10  10
IOLA            66  81  58  87 / 100  80  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    67  81  59  87 / 100  80  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ053-069>072-083-
092>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-132045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
333 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF A LYONS TO ROXBURY TO LOST SPRINGS LINE. HOWEVER
THERE APPEARS TO BE A GREATER RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF
GOLF BALL SIZE...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND A
FEW TORNADOES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A HUTCHINSON TO COTTONWOOD
FALLS LINE...AND NORTH OF A CEDAR VALE TO ERIE LINE.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE SEVERE. STAY TUNED TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK/KED/ELDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
601 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E PEABODY             38.17N 97.09W
06/12/2008                   MARION             KS   STORM CHASER

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TORNADO          CEDAR POINT             38.26N 96.82W
06/12/2008                   CHASE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER RELAYED REPORT HEARD FROM LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
713 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             5 NNE NORWICH           37.52N 97.83W
06/12/2008  E2.00 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW 2 INCH HAIL STONES. MOST WAS AROUND 1 INCH.

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
716 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     TORNADO          5 SE COTTONWOOD FALLS   38.32N 96.48W
06/12/2008                   CHASE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
722 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             SE NORWICH              37.46N 97.84W
06/12/2008  E1.00 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
726 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TORNADO          6 SSW COTTONWOOD FALLS  38.29N 96.58W
06/12/2008                   CHASE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT FROM STORM CHASER. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

KED