Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES THRU TUE NIGHT AS MID-UPR LOW...
DRIFTING E OVER SRN ONTARIO...DRAGS COLD FRONT S/SE INTO C KS TONIGHT &
MON. SUCH MOVEMENT OF THE MID-UPR LOW THRU TUE WILL INDUCE DECELERATION
OF THE FRONT WITH BOUNDARY LIKELY SETTING UP CAMP IN W-E MANNER THROUGH
THE HEART OF KICT COUNTRY. WITH HIGH OCTANE SFC-850MB FUEL CONTINUING TO
MIGRATE N FROM SRN PLAINS...NUMEROUS (+)TSRA...POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO PUT
DAMPER ON REMAINDER OF MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN C KS WHERE
FLOODING RAINS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT-TUE NIGHT:
PER SYNOPSIS HAVE GONE NEARLY FULL-THROTTLE ON POPS NEARLY ALL AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH FOCUS ON C KS THRU 12 MID-NIGHT WITH AXIS OF HIGHEST
POPS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SE OVER REMAINDER OF KICT COUTNRY AS MASSIVE MCS
VENTURES OVER THESE LATTER AREAS THEREAFTER. WITH AFORE-MENTIONED FRONT
DECELERATING PROLONGED PERIODS OF +RA LIKELY OVER ESPECIALLY C KS WHERE
ECHO-TRAINING LIKELY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. WITH 1 & 3-HOUR FFGS IN
1.5-2.5 INCH RANGE HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF C KS FOR TONIGHT
THATLL INCLUDE MARION & CHASE COUNTIES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH
VERY UNSTABLE() AIRMASS TO OBVIOUSLY PROMOTE SUPER-CELLULAR CONVECTION
THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL GRADUALLY SHIFTING SE
OVER SC & SE KS TUE AFTERNOON & EVENING.

MID-WEEK:
NO CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH COOLER TEMPS SPREADING S ACROSS
PRIMARILY C KS TUE & WED.

NEXT WEEKEND:
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRIMED & READY FOR MORE TSRA FRI NIGHT AS POTENT
MID-UPR LOW SPRINTS E/SE ACROSS NRN PLAINS...SWEEPING COLD FRONT SE OVER
KS. WITH MID-UPR LOW FILLING AS IT ASSUMES DUE E TRACK ACROSS GREAT
LAKES LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN...FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE & PERHAPS EVEN
STALL NEAR RED RIVER AROUND THIS SAME TIME...THEREBY SHUNTING BEST TSRA
POTENTIAL ACROSS SRN KS SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  89  68  77 /  70  30  60  40
HUTCHINSON      69  88  66  75 /  70  30  80  40
NEWTON          70  87  67  76 /  80  40  70  40
ELDORADO        71  87  69  78 /  80  30  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  89  69  80 /  70  30  50  40
RUSSELL         67  86  57  70 /  60  30  80  40
GREAT BEND      67  87  60  72 /  60  30  80  40
SALINA          68  85  62  72 /  80  40  80  40
MCPHERSON       69  87  65  74 /  80  40  80  40
COFFEYVILLE     73  87  69  83 /  60  30  30  50
CHANUTE         72  85  69  81 /  70  30  50  50
IOLA            72  85  69  80 /  80  30  50  50
PARSONS-KPPF    73  86  69  82 /  70  20  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
453 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-262200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
453 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TENNISBALL SIZED HAIL
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 70 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL OCCUR OVER ALL
OF CENTRAL KANSAS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUCH SEVERE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG...AND NORTHWEST...OF A LINE FROM LYONS TO NEAR
SALINA. IN ADDITION...FLOOD PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.

LATER TONIGHT...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY SEVERE...WILL
SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AROUND 70 MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING
GENERALLY THE SAME AREAS...THE VERY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE FURTHER FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONE IS URGED TO LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
559 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

KSZ033-260000-
LINCOLN-
559 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 556 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SYLVAN GROVE...OR 11 MILES WEST OF
LINCOLN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
600 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     TORNADO          1 N GALATIA             38.66N 98.96W
05/25/2008                   BARTON             KS   STORM CHASER

&&

REC

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