Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

.UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT:
PERSISTENT STRONG-SEVERE +TSRA CLUSTER THAT HAS BEEN FESTERING OVER
NC OK ALL AFTERNOON & EVENING CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE15 TOWARD OK/KS
BORDER AS OF 930PM CDT. WITH THE CLUSTER BEING SUSTAINED BY RICH
PERSISTENT SFC-850MB NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED WITH DEEP MID
TO UPR LOW DRIFTING NE OVER NRN ROCKIES HAVE SHARPENED POP GRADIENT
ASSIGNING 50% TO EXTREME SC KS WITH POPS GREATLY TAPERED TO 20%
ALONG KICT COUNTRY PERIMETER.

.AVIATION...
UPDATE TO 00Z TAF:
PER SHORT TERM HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS TO KICT FOR DURATION OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008/

UPDATE...

AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE: KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MOISTURE-LADEN SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER ALL OF C...SC & SE KS
THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...SPREADING AREAS OF 1,500-2,500 FT
CUMULUS FRACTUS OVER PRIMARILY THE KICT...KHUT & KSLN TERMINALS
WHERE BETTER ALIGNED WITH LWR-DECK MOISTURE AXIS. MORNING HEATING
COUPLED WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING SLY FLOW IN 1,000-5,000 FOOT
LAYER SHOULD SCOUR OUT MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THESE PESKY LOW
CLOUDS BY 15Z SUN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE/CONCERN/HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WAVY DRYLINE STRETCHING FROM
NEBRASKA...SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
MEANWHILE...AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM ARKANSAS...WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA...AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...IN
RESPONSE TO MAXIMIZED CONVERGENCE/LIFT AT DRYLINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERSECTION.

LOW CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY. MOST
OF FORECAST AREA EAST OF OLD OUTFLOW/DRYLINE IS QUITE CAPPED DUE TO
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FARTHER
WEST...THERE IS A NARROW ZONE OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND
OLD OUTFLOW. SCATTERED CUMULUS HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTING TO FORM ALONG
THE DRYLINE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME
CONGEALING LIKELY DUE TO SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE. SO FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THINKING BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HARPER AND SUMNER COUNTIES...CLOSEST TO
BEST INSTABILITY AND DRYLINE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION. ALTHOUGH...CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO FIRING ALONG THE
DRYLINE...ALTHOUGH AM THINKING MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT TOO SHALLOW FOR
ANYTHING TO FIRE THERE. NEVERTHELESS...IF A STORM CAN GO...GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE...CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO OUTFLOW/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND BACKING
SURFACE FLOW THIS EVENING WILL PROMOTE GREATER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
VALUES FOR ANY SUPERCELL ACROSS THE AREA...ENHANCING THE TORNADO
THREAT. OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOMORROW WILL BE CONTINGENT ON ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM POTENTIAL CONVECTION TONIGHT. IF NO
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE TONIGHT...AND THUS NO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...THINKING CONVECTION CHANCES WILL BE NIL UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...WHEN THE MODELS DROP A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. DESPITE LITTLE
MID/UPPER FORCING...STRONG INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TOUGH TO PINPOINT THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AS A BIG COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD TEND TO SURGE THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY PROJECTING. HOWEVER...CURRENT DATA WOULD SUGGEST BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. ORIENTATION
OF LOW-LEVEL JET AND MID/UPPER FLOW WOULD SUGGEST SLOW MOVING STORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...BUT TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

QUITE THE COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
GRADUAL WARM UP EXPECTED INTO MID/LATE WEEK.

KLEINSASSER

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...CURRENT BATCH OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO WANE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH REMNANT STRATO CU STILL
AROUND. SOME OF THIS STRATO CU COULD PRODUCE SOME BROKEN MVFR
CEILINGS NEAR KICT/KHUT AND KSLN...BUT EXPECT THIS CEILING TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE AFTERNOON HEATING CONTINUES.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS TSRA DEVELOP. COULD SEE THIS CONVECTION AFFECT
THE KRSL/KSLN/KHUT AND KICT TAF SITE AFTER 22Z AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS THROUGH 06Z/SUN.  WILL ONLY GO WITH VCTS FOR NOW...AS
EXPECTING THE CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE. IF ANY TSRA COULD MOVE OVER A TAF SITE..THEN SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  91  68  91 /  40  20  30  30
HUTCHINSON      67  92  67  91 /  30  30  30  30
NEWTON          68  91  68  89 /  30  20  30  30
ELDORADO        69  90  68  89 /  40  20  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  90  68  90 /  50  20  30  30
RUSSELL         63  92  65  88 /  20  30  30  40
GREAT BEND      64  92  65  90 /  20  30  30  40
SALINA          66  92  67  88 /  30  30  30  40
MCPHERSON       67  92  67  89 /  30  30  30  40
COFFEYVILLE     70  89  70  88 /  40  20  30  30
CHANUTE         69  89  69  88 /  30  20  30  30
IOLA            69  89  69  88 /  30  20  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    69  89  69  88 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
508 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     TORNADO          8 SE GREAT BEND         38.28N 98.70W
05/23/2008  F1               BARTON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOUSE LIFTED OFF ITS FOUNDATION. BARN AND GARAGE
            DESTROYED.

1038 PM     TORNADO          10 ESE GREAT BEND       38.28N 98.65W
05/23/2008  F0               BARTON             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN IN OPEN COUNTRY. MINOR DAMAGE TO TREES
            AND 5 POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

BDK

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