Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES THRU TUE NIGHT AS MID-UPR LOW...
DRIFTING E OVER SRN ONTARIO...DRAGS COLD FRONT S/SE INTO C KS TONIGHT &
MON. SUCH MOVEMENT OF THE MID-UPR LOW THRU TUE WILL INDUCE DECELERATION
OF THE FRONT WITH BOUNDARY LIKELY SETTING UP CAMP IN W-E MANNER THROUGH
THE HEART OF KICT COUNTRY. WITH HIGH OCTANE SFC-850MB FUEL CONTINUING TO
MIGRATE N FROM SRN PLAINS...NUMEROUS (+)TSRA...POSSIBLY SEVERE...TO PUT
DAMPER ON REMAINDER OF MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN C KS WHERE
FLOODING RAINS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT-TUE NIGHT:
PER SYNOPSIS HAVE GONE NEARLY FULL-THROTTLE ON POPS NEARLY ALL AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH FOCUS ON C KS THRU 12 MID-NIGHT WITH AXIS OF HIGHEST
POPS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SE OVER REMAINDER OF KICT COUTNRY AS MASSIVE MCS
VENTURES OVER THESE LATTER AREAS THEREAFTER. WITH AFORE-MENTIONED FRONT
DECELERATING PROLONGED PERIODS OF +RA LIKELY OVER ESPECIALLY C KS WHERE
ECHO-TRAINING LIKELY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. WITH 1 & 3-HOUR FFGS IN
1.5-2.5 INCH RANGE HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF C KS FOR TONIGHT
THATLL INCLUDE MARION & CHASE COUNTIES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH
VERY UNSTABLE() AIRMASS TO OBVIOUSLY PROMOTE SUPER-CELLULAR CONVECTION
THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL GRADUALLY SHIFTING SE
OVER SC & SE KS TUE AFTERNOON & EVENING.

MID-WEEK:
NO CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST WITH COOLER TEMPS SPREADING S ACROSS
PRIMARILY C KS TUE & WED.

NEXT WEEKEND:
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE PRIMED & READY FOR MORE TSRA FRI NIGHT AS POTENT
MID-UPR LOW SPRINTS E/SE ACROSS NRN PLAINS...SWEEPING COLD FRONT SE OVER
KS. WITH MID-UPR LOW FILLING AS IT ASSUMES DUE E TRACK ACROSS GREAT
LAKES LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN...FRONT SHOULD DECELERATE & PERHAPS EVEN
STALL NEAR RED RIVER AROUND THIS SAME TIME...THEREBY SHUNTING BEST TSRA
POTENTIAL ACROSS SRN KS SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  89  68  77 /  70  30  60  40
HUTCHINSON      69  88  66  75 /  70  30  80  40
NEWTON          70  87  67  76 /  80  40  70  40
ELDORADO        71  87  69  78 /  80  30  60  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  89  69  80 /  70  30  50  40
RUSSELL         67  86  57  70 /  60  30  80  40
GREAT BEND      67  87  60  72 /  60  30  80  40
SALINA          68  85  62  72 /  80  40  80  40
MCPHERSON       69  87  65  74 /  80  40  80  40
COFFEYVILLE     73  87  69  83 /  60  30  30  50
CHANUTE         72  85  69  81 /  70  30  50  50
IOLA            72  85  69  80 /  80  30  50  50
PARSONS-KPPF    73  86  69  82 /  70  20  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ032-033-047>053.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-261015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS AND
EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE NORTHWEST
OF A HUTCHINSON TO HILLSBORO LINE.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE CONVECTION IN
CENTRAL KANSAS EVOLVES INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS LINE OF
STORMS COULD ALSO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT. A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING
THIS TIME WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

WITH THE ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...IT IS ADVISED TO CHECK ADDITIONAL OUTLOOKS AS WE
CONTINUE TO REFINE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS. ALSO...STAY
TUNED FOR ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK/KETCHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
253 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

KSZ032-252100-
RUSSELL-
253 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF GALATIA...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HAYS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 31 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

KRC