Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
BECOME STATIONARY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A CLOSED H5 LOW WILL SLIGHTLY DEEPEN THIS EVE THRU TONIGHT...AS A
POTENT S/W ROTATES AROUND FROM THE NW OVR ERN KY/TN. SEVERAL SHWRS
AND TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS TN AND THE
SRN APPLNS. LAPS CAPES AT 18Z WERE GENERALLY 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS
THE AREA. SO NUMEROUS STORMS FOR LATE AFTN AND INTO THE EVE CAN BE
EXPECTED. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/LINES WITH POTENTIAL BOWING SEGMENTS AND LARGE HAIL. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE AREA FROM THE N LATE THIS EVE AND
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS PRECIP ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING WITH THE
FROPA. OVERALL...GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT
ADVANCING S OF THE CWFA...WITH PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE AIR OVR THE
AREA. HENCE...NO POPS ARE CARRIED FOR THURSDAY...AND TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT BUKFIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM
AND GFS...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA SHOULD
REMAIN STABLE THU NIGHT AND FRI. I DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE NC MTNS LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT...AS A LITTLE INSTABILITY IS
SHOWN BY THE MODELS STARTING IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ON SATURDAY. THE OLD ECMWF BROUGHT AN MCS...OR PERHAPS THE REMNANTS
OF ONE...ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FA SAT MORNING. THE GFS ALSO
BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF A NW FLOW MCS OVER THE FA ON SAT...BUT
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY. HAVING BOTH
MODELS BRING SOMETHING THROUGH THE AREA IS A GOOD SIGN...AS ARE THE
HIGH POPS ON THE SREF...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OR EXACT NATURE
OF THE PCPN IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH. FOR NOW WILL CARRY 30 POPS
OUTSIDE THE MTNS AND 40 TO 50 POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
DAY ON SAT. WITH THE ERN CONUS LONG WAVE BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY
AGAIN...THE NW FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SAT NIGHT.
THEREFORE...I/VE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY...THE THINKING REGARDING THE MEDIUM RANGE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A TROUGH CONTINUING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND APPROACH THE FA DURING
THE DAY ON SUN...BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY THEREAFTER AND REMAINING
IN THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED...TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND PUSH THE OLD BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. AS FAR AS
TEMPS GO...WARMEST DAY WILL BE SUN WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...THEN RETURNING TO VALUES CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR EARLY AND MID
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS WILL BE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE EXACT TIMING OF ANY
ONE CELL AFFECTING A TAF SITE CANNOT BE MADE...VCTS AND CB WORDING
WILL BE CARRIED WITH THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. AS TRENDS IN SAT/RADAR
UNFOLD...AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE TO BETTER TIME ANY RESTRICTIONS.
OTRW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NWLY THEN NELY
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS S THRU THE AREA. IF CLOUDS CLEAR
SOON ENOUGH...SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE...HENCE A BRIEF MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTION AT KAVL WAS RETAINED. HI PRES WILL BLD INTO THE REGION
BY THURSDAY AFTN...RESULTING IN SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU
FRIDAY...PROVIDING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR IN
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MVFR VISIBILITY AT NIGHT IN FOG WHERE RAIN
FALLS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048>053-058-059-062>065-068-505>510-
SCZ001>014-019-241945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
344 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ033-035>037-056-057-069>072-082-501>504-241945-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
344 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 739 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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