Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008

LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(315 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008)
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME WET SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE STORM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOODING ON
AREA RIVERS IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COLDER WEATHER
AND A SNOWSTORM ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT (315 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008)
A PLETHORA OF FORECAST PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT RANGE. MAIN ISSUES ARE
FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND EVENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN MOVING IN
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM HAILERS AS LLJ TAKES
DIRECT AIM AT LOWER MICHIGAN. USED 18Z HPC QPF WITH SOME MINOR
TWEAKS AND WENT CATEGORICAL POPS...THEN TAPERED OFF POPS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. ADJUSTED FORECAST TEMPS CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS
WEDGE OF WARM AIR PERSISTING INTO TUE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG 50 KTS OF WIND JUST
OFF THE SFC. FORTUNATELY...LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STORM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH COLDER
AIR FILTERING IN. WILL HAVE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NE FORECAST AREA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE HANGS ON LONGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH MONDAY...(315 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008)
HAVE ADDED SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS.  H8 TEMPS DIP DOWN TO MINUS 8C WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW.
OTHERWISE THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO THU AFTERNOON WILL BE QUIET AS
SURFACE RIDGING GOES BY.  TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THINGS GET INTERESTING AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY IN THIS TIME FRAME.  THE KEY TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR RETURNS AND WHEN PCPN CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW.  INITIALLY EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW EVENTUALLY.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WOULD SEE HIGHER PCPN TOTALS.  BUT WILL IT BE ALL
SNOW...WILL BE THE QUESTION.

WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE COOLER AIR FILTER DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS SHOULD BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER LOW
TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND HELPING DRAW COLDER AIR
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CARRY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(115 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008)
WITH A FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH
MIXING FROM THE WIND TO KEEP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR
RANGE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  BELIEVE THE WINDS WILL SIMMER DOWN SOME
OVERNIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARD
MIDNIGHT.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SO
HAVE INDICATED THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND A
COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD REMAIN
WIDELY SCATTERED.

ANOTHER SURGE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ALONG THE FRONT.  WINDS GUSTS
WILL KICK UP AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...(315 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008)
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. SCA OR GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(315 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008)
FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE LOOKING GLASS RIVER NEAR EAGLE WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES ELSEWHERE. SLOW MOVING FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN...PERHAPS HEAVY....BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOST OF THE RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GRAND...KALAMAZOO...AND SAINT JOSEPH RIVER BASINS. SHARP RISES
EXPECTED BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH CRESTS MOVING DOWN THE RIVERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:   OSTUNO
SHORT TERM: OSTUNO
LONG TERM:  JK
AVIATION:   JK
MARINE:     OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY:  OSTUNO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
548 AM EST MON JAN 7 2008

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-081100-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
548 AM EST MON JAN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 7 PM AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SNOW MELT MAY BRING SOME CREEKS OUT OF THEIR BANKS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE MAY HAVE
PROBLEMS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OVERNIGHT.

BESIDE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND THAT COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES
CAUSING LOCAL POWER OUTAGES. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS OF TODAY ALSO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS
RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT MAY
BRING SOME RIVERS TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. CREEKS AND AREAS
WITH POOR DRAINAGE MAY ALSO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH FLOODING. WHILE THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END TUESDAY EVENING... RUNOFF FROM
THE EXPECTED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN RIVER RISES AND
AREAS OF FLOODING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE RAIN EVENT HAS ENDED.

THE SNOWSTORM EVENT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY REMAINS A
REAL POSSIBILITY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVENT FOR
POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

LMZ844>849-081100-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
548 AM EST MON JAN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ANY STORM MAY HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS MAY RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITIES BESIDE THE
THREAT FOR CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN 5 TO 8 FOOT
WAVES. THOSE ARE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL WATER CRAFT. THE WIND AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY.

LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS...HIGH WAVES AND SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

WDM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
903 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008

MIZ065-066-072-073-080300-
BARRY-CALHOUN-EATON-KALAMAZOO-
903 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 900 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SOUTH GULL LAKE TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF CLIMAX...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...DOWLING...SPRINGFIELD...
BURLINGTON...BROWNLEE PARK...NASHVILLE...TEKONSHA...VERMONTVILLE AND
MARSHALL

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4252 8541 4277 8473 4207 8474 4207 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 242DEG 46KT 4246 8531 4216 8533

NJJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
906 PM EST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             2 E MOUNT PLEASANT      43.61N 84.71W
01/07/2008  M1.00 INCH       ISABELLA           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
911 PM EST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             MOUNT PLEASANT          43.61N 84.75W
01/07/2008  M0.88 INCH       ISABELLA           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING IN MOUNT PLEASANT.

&&

MKALEMBK

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