Tornado Warning 1, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WFUS53 KGRR 080003 CCA
TORGRR
MIC121-080045-
/O.COR.KGRR.TO.W.0001.080108T0000Z-080108T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
700 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS
HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  MUSKEGON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN

* UNTIL 745 PM EST

* AT 656 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 20
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROOSEVELT PARK...OR ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF GRAND
  HAVEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY   
  OF PRODUCING TORNADOES OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  ROOSEVELT PARK AND MUSKEGON BY 720 PM EST
  FRUITPORT BY 725 PM EST
  RAVENNA BY 735 PM EST

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4339 8604 4337 8602 4331 8603 4330 8598
      4319 8591 4312 8614 4312 8628 4322 8636
      4327 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 242DEG 44KT 4309 8657

$$

JK

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 080025
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
725 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008

MIC121-080045-
/O.CON.KGRR.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080108T0045Z/
MUSKEGON MI-
725 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EST FOR MUSKEGON 
COUNTY...

AT 719 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTON
SHORES...OR JUST SOUTH OF MUSKEGON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  WOLF LAKE AND SULLIVAN BY 730 PM EST
  VICKERYVILLE AND RAVENNA BY 735 PM EST

NO TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED YET IN MICHIGAN...BUT THIS STORM DOES 
HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES IN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. 
THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AT ANY TIME.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4339 8604 4337 8602 4331 8603 4330 8598
      4319 8591 4312 8614 4312 8628 4322 8636
      4327 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 243DEG 45KT 4318 8621

$$
NJJ

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 080047
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
747 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008

MIC121-080057-
/O.EXP.KGRR.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080108T0045Z/
MUSKEGON MI-
747 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL MUSKEGON WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER
SEVERE. THEREFORE THE TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4339 8604 4337 8602 4331 8603 4330 8598
      4319 8591 4312 8614 4312 8628 4322 8636
      4327 8637
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 243DEG 45KT 4319 8618

$$
NJJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008

LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(315 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008)
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT. THE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME WET SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE STORM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLOODING ON
AREA RIVERS IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COLDER WEATHER
AND A SNOWSTORM ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT (315 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008)
A PLETHORA OF FORECAST PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT RANGE. MAIN ISSUES ARE
FOR RAIN AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND EVENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN MOVING IN
THIS EVENING ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM HAILERS AS LLJ TAKES
DIRECT AIM AT LOWER MICHIGAN. USED 18Z HPC QPF WITH SOME MINOR
TWEAKS AND WENT CATEGORICAL POPS...THEN TAPERED OFF POPS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST. ADJUSTED FORECAST TEMPS CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS
WEDGE OF WARM AIR PERSISTING INTO TUE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY CONVECTION
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG 50 KTS OF WIND JUST
OFF THE SFC. FORTUNATELY...LOW LEVEL WINDS DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE STORM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH COLDER
AIR FILTERING IN. WILL HAVE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NE FORECAST AREA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE HANGS ON LONGEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH MONDAY...(315 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008)
HAVE ADDED SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS.  H8 TEMPS DIP DOWN TO MINUS 8C WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW.
OTHERWISE THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO THU AFTERNOON WILL BE QUIET AS
SURFACE RIDGING GOES BY.  TEMPS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THINGS GET INTERESTING AGAIN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUGGEST LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY IN THIS TIME FRAME.  THE KEY TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR RETURNS AND WHEN PCPN CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW.  INITIALLY EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW EVENTUALLY.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA WOULD SEE HIGHER PCPN TOTALS.  BUT WILL IT BE ALL
SNOW...WILL BE THE QUESTION.

WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE COOLER AIR FILTER DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS SHOULD BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER LOW
TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND HELPING DRAW COLDER AIR
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CARRY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(115 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008)
WITH A FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH
MIXING FROM THE WIND TO KEEP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR
RANGE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  BELIEVE THE WINDS WILL SIMMER DOWN SOME
OVERNIGHT AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARD
MIDNIGHT.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SO
HAVE INDICATED THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND A
COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 00Z...BUT EVEN THESE SHOULD REMAIN
WIDELY SCATTERED.

ANOTHER SURGE OF PCPN WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ALONG THE FRONT.  WINDS GUSTS
WILL KICK UP AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE TOWARD MID DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...(315 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008)
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. SCA OR GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(315 PM EST MON JAN 7 2008)
FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE LOOKING GLASS RIVER NEAR EAGLE WITH
THE EXPECTATION OF RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES ELSEWHERE. SLOW MOVING FRONT AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
MEAN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN...PERHAPS HEAVY....BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOST OF THE RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GRAND...KALAMAZOO...AND SAINT JOSEPH RIVER BASINS. SHARP RISES
EXPECTED BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH CRESTS MOVING DOWN THE RIVERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS:   OSTUNO
SHORT TERM: OSTUNO
LONG TERM:  JK
AVIATION:   JK
MARINE:     OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY:  OSTUNO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
548 AM EST MON JAN 7 2008

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-081100-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
548 AM EST MON JAN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS BEGINNING TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 7 PM AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SNOW MELT MAY BRING SOME CREEKS OUT OF THEIR BANKS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE MAY HAVE
PROBLEMS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OVERNIGHT.

BESIDE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND THAT COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES
CAUSING LOCAL POWER OUTAGES. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS OF TODAY ALSO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY DURING THE DAY AS
RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT MAY
BRING SOME RIVERS TO NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. CREEKS AND AREAS
WITH POOR DRAINAGE MAY ALSO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH FLOODING. WHILE THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END TUESDAY EVENING... RUNOFF FROM
THE EXPECTED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD RESULT IN RIVER RISES AND
AREAS OF FLOODING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE RAIN EVENT HAS ENDED.

THE SNOWSTORM EVENT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY REMAINS A
REAL POSSIBILITY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVENT FOR
POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

LMZ844>849-081100-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
548 AM EST MON JAN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ANY STORM MAY HAVE
GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS MAY RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITIES BESIDE THE
THREAT FOR CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN 5 TO 8 FOOT
WAVES. THOSE ARE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL WATER CRAFT. THE WIND AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY.

LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS...HIGH WAVES AND SNOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

WDM