River Flood Warning 5, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
635 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(431 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2008)
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY TODAY. THESE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
VERY WARM AIR FOR JANUARY UP INTO THE AREA. RAINFALL WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
SOME FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE. ONE LAST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A LITTLE SNOW LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME RAIN OR SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(431 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2008)
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BAND OF SOLID
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ALL THE
WAY BACK TO KS...OK...AND AR. WAVE TRAIN HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR
THE TIME BEING...AND IS ACTING ON PWATS OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES /200-300
PERCENT OF NORMAL/ ALONG THE ENTIRE BAND OF PCPN. MODELS INDICATE
THAT ONE LLJ CORE PASSED EAST OF THE CWFA WITH THE CONVECTION FROM
LAST EVENING. NEXT LLJ WILL BE NOSING UP INTO THE SRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ACT TO FOCUS THE BEST THREAT OF THE
PCPN OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWFA. THE MAIN LOW THAT WILL
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. LLJ REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING
SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. SFC
LOW MOVES OVERHEAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SEVERE THREAT WILL
INCREASE A BIT WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. INSTABILITY IS NOT
VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE AND SFC LOW NEARBY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

THE LOW NEARLY BOMBS OUT MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
AND ON WED. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...BEFORE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ROTATES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING AS MELTING
LAYER REMAINS HIGHER THAN 2K FEET. COLD AIR WILL THEN RUSH IN LATER
IN THE EVENING...AND FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO BELOW 1K FEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IT SEEMS AT THIS POINT AS IF THE COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN
JUST A LITTLE TOO LATE TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF
SNOW ACROSS THE CWFA WITH THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR INITIALLY MOVES IN. CORE OF 925
MB WINDS ACTUALLY JUST MISSES THE CWFA AND ROTATES EAST OF THE CWFA
THIS EVENING. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT.
SINCE THIS WILL BE SECOND PERIOD...WE WILL DEFER TO THE DAY SHIFT.

SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OF
THE CWFA BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL KEEP ALL PCPN CONFINED TO THE TONIGHT
PERIOD. SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL
THEN MOVE IN DURING THE DAY ON WED. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY
TO SOME SUN WED AFTERNOON FROM SW TO NORTHEAST. LAKE EFFECT DOES NOT
LOOK TO COME INTO PLAY WITH H850 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -2 TO -4C DURING
THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING AS THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AN ALONG THE
OH RIVER VALLEY. LATEST TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
SHOWS MORE EMPHASIS ON A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE EAST COAST WITH THE
INITIAL LOW FILLING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA. THE FRONT EDGE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE THU AFTERNOON...BRINGING A CHC OF RAIN
TO THE SOUTH AND RAIN OR SNOW TO THE NORTH. MAIN SHOW LOOKS TO BE
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(431 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2008)
I DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME
SECTION OF THE FORECAST. FIRST I INCREASE THE POP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
CHANCE TO LIKELY. SECOND I WANTED TO BETTER RESOLVE THE TREND FROM
RAIN TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. OTHER THAN THAT... THE ON
GOING FORECAST FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH MON REMAINS VERY SIMILAR.

BIG PICTURE...AS SEEN IN THE HPC LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON....IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR
THE NATION...WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE WEST
COAST TO THE PLAINS  REMAINS ON TRACK. ONE COULD MAKE AN AGREEMENT
THIS IS RELATED A LEAST TO SOME EXTENT TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE MJO
CONVECTIVE WAVE PROGRESSING NICELY THROUGH 140E. THE PROGRESSION OF
THAT SECOND LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM IN THE PAST TWO WEEKS TO COME
OFF THE CONTINENT OF ASIA IS ALSO PART OF THE STORY TOO. THE
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE COLDEST AIR OVER NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
MOVING FROM NORTHERN ASIA...SIBERIA... ACROSS THE NORTH POLE TO
NORTHERN CANADA IN THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.  THAT SETS THE STAGE FOR A
MAJOR COLD OUT BREAK LATE IN THE 3RD OR EARLY IN THE 4TH WEEK OF
JANUARY. BETWEEN THEN AND NOW WE WILL SEE A PROGRESSION TOWARD THAT
NEW AND COLDER PATTERN.

AS FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY STORM...WHILE IT IS TRUE THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN A TOUCH FARTHER EAST WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 2
DAYS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO TELL LARGELY THE SAME STORY FOR THE PAST
WEEK AND A HALF. A NICE TROWAL DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA. WHICH IF TRUE... WOULD SURELY RESULT IN MEASURABLE
SNOW. I ALSO STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF A FARTHER WEST SYSTEM. THAT HAS
BEEN TRUE FOR MOST OF OUR RECENT SYSTEMS AND GIVEN THE LARGE
MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW OVER NH FOR THE PAST WEEK OR
SO... I HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL REMAIN TRUE. AS A BONUS THE
SREF POPS FROM THE 03Z RUN ARE IN THE 80 TO 95 PCT RANGE WEST OR
ROUTE 131 AND 65 TO 75 PCT EAST OF THERE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY 65 TO 80 PCT POPS CONTINUE THROUGH
18Z OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND 55 TO 65 PCT OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE POP FOR GRT THAT .1 INCHES IS NEARLY 70 PCT AT 06Z
FRIDAY. ALL OF THIS SHOWS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT.

BEYOND THAT THE FIRST PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH NW WINDS INTO
SATURDAY. WHILE THE INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE LIMITED... I HAVE TO
BELIEVE WE HAVE A SHOT AT SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ON
SUNDAY THE WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AS THE POLAR HIGH DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THAT SHOULD REALLY LIMIT THE RISK OF SNOW.  THERE IS A SHOT
THOUGH SINCE THERE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT IF IT WENT A
TOUCH FARTHER NORTH... WE WOULD SEE SOME SNOW FROM THAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(635 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2008)
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR STL AT 09Z WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY... INCREASING
INSTABILITY MAY BRING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LIFR CIGS AND VIS IS
EXPECTED AFTER 9 AM THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE IT
ENDS.

&&

.MARINE...(431 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2008)
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS MAY MIX DOWN A BIT TODAY...BUT STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO BE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS
THE COLDER MOVES IN. GALES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(431 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2008)
LATEST STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCT FROM THE KGRR RADAR SHOWS
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS STRETCH ALONG
THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND UP INTO PORTIONS OF EATON AND INGHAM COUNTIES.
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THOSE LOCATIONS
ACCORDING TO THE RADAR ESTIMATES. RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RISE...BUT NO FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT. UP TO ANOTHER 1.5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE
AREAS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WE HAVE DECIDED FOR NOW TO ISSUE A
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR NOW. THIS
DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A FLASH FLOOD SCENARIO YET...HOWEVER LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CREATE BIGGER PROBLEMS TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED. WE WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CWFA...WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT EXPECTED DOWN SOUTH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LM...GALE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE NEARSHORE FROM 00Z THIS EVENING
THROUGH 18Z WED.

&&

SYNOPSIS:   NJJ
SHORT TERM: NJJ
LONG TERM:  WDM
AVIATION:   WDM
MARINE:     NJJ
HYDROLOGY:  NJJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
608 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-091115-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
608 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS NEAR ST LOUIS AT 6 AM WILL MOVE
OVER THE WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WILL
PUSH A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BEFORE NOON. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOHNS TO SOUTH
HAVEN. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
ENDING THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
RECENTLY MELTED SNOW MAY BRING SOME CREEKS OUT OF THEIR BANKS
DURING TODAY. AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE MAY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING TOO.

BESIDE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND THAT COULD BRING DOWN TREES AND POWER
LINES CAUSING LOCAL POWER OUTAGES.

AS IF ALL OF THE ABOVE WERE NOT ENOUGH...ONCE THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 40
MPH AS THE COLD AIR MOVES BACK INTO AREA. SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE
POSSIBLE IF THOSE WINDS BLOW DOWN TREE BRANCHES INTO POWER LINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WHILE THE RAIN WILL HAVE ENDED WEDNESDAY... THE RUNOFF FROM THE
RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. AREA CREEKS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
CREST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AREA RIVERS CAN HAVE CRESTS
AS LATE AS THIS WEEKEND.

A WINTER STORM MAY STILL BRING MEASURABLE SNOW TO SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
INFORMATION SUGGEST THAT WHILE MEASURABLE SNOW IS LIKELY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...IT SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR SNOW EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

LMZ844>849-091115-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
608 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. GUSTY
WINDS...INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL WITH A FEW OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BRING THE COLD AIR BACK INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
THOSE GALE WINDS WILL INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS TO NEAR 9 FEET. WINDS
THAT STRONG AND WAVES THAT HIGH ARE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL WATER CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GALE FORCE WINDS WITH WAVES TO NEAR 9 FEET WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE IN
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EVEN SO...WINDS THAT STRONG AND WAVES THAT HIGH ARE
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL WATER CRAFT.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THE GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SNOW...INCREASED WAVES AND WINDS WILL ALL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1008 AM EST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BATTLE CREEK            42.30N 85.23W
01/08/2008  M1.79 INCH       CALHOUN            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            34 HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL...0.93 PAST 10 HOURS

&&

JK